Daniel Ahmad Profile picture
13 Nov, 11 tweets, 3 min read
Here is the most important part of the Xbox Series X|S launch PR:

"70% of Series X|S consoles are attached to new and existing Xbox Game Pass members"

This is Microsoft's goal with Series X|S, to drive Game Pass subscriptions and generate recurring revenue.

Quick thread 1/
2/ Gaming subscriptions are driving growth on top of traditional spend, not just on Xbox, but on all console platforms. Increases LTV of a console owner.

With PlayStation, over 50% of PS4 owners had signed up to or already had a PS+ subscription in the first few months.
3/ PlayStation has been able to maintain this over 7 years, with 43% of the 107m active PS4 users having a PS+ subscription today.

Nintendo has been able to do the same, releasing Nintendo Online in 2018, which now has ~40% of Switch owners subscribed to the service.
4/ While PlayStation and Nintendo offer online play, a few free games and other perks each month, Xbox is going one step further and including all of the above + a larger library of titles + its own first party titles to increase the value of the service.

It's a $180 a year sub
5/ Here's are the facts

The average console gamers buys two games per year

That's spend of around $120 a year

Right now, the average PS4 owner has 13 games in their library. @$60 Let's say $780 spent

The average Switch owner has 7 games in their library. Let's say $420 spent
6/ Game Pass gives players access to a wider range of games, but it doesn't stop them spending on other games

According to Xbox, Game Pass subscribers generate 20% more in sales from buying non Game Pass games and DLC than non Game Pass subscribers do

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
7/ Game Pass subscribers absolutely get value from first party games and other AAA / back catalog titles in the service, but that doesn't stop them spending on:

- The latest COD / FIFA / AAA release (not in Game Pass)
- Sequels / prequels to games they discover via Game Pass
8/ Taking all of this data into account.

Game Pass subscribers are still likely to spend that $120 each year on new games, perhaps 20% more than usual = $144.

They're spending $180 a year on Game Pass.

Over a 6 year period that's $864 on games and $1,080 on Game Pass.
9/ The lifetime value of that console player increases significantly

That's why Xbox is looking to scale + grow Game Pass across multiple platforms

That's why All Access comes bundled with Game Pass

That's why Game Pass includes Live Gold

That's why 70% attach is notable
10/ Console still plays an important role for Xbox and the above thread should explain why.

But I've also written a thread in the past about why, at least in the short term, console is where MS gets the highest returns.

Just a quick footnote, because I didn't clarify properly.

The above numbers don't account for spend on DLC and add on content. That is a sizeable portion of the market these days.

Game Pass subscribers would also purchase add on content on games in the service. See tweet 6/

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More from @ZhugeEX

13 Nov
Let's talk about a controversial topic in the world of video games.

Chinese games dev Paper Games just shut down its game, Shining Nikki, in Korea after controversy erupted between Chinese and Korean players.

This thread is about how Chinese companies view game exports.

1/
It's no secret that China has a strict regulatory environment for games. There are restrictions that developers have to impose on their own games in order to release them in China.

The most recent example being in Genshin Impact:

This is a top down approach to game censorship, but it's worth noting that there is also a bottom up approach too

Which is to say Chinese game companies also self censor themselves + Chinese players may demand changes

Changes are made pre-emptively, due to the top down approach
Read 12 tweets
12 Nov
With the PS5 launching in select markets today, I thought I’d do a quick thread with my thoughts on PS5 and PlayStation’s overall strategy going forward.

This is from my pov as an analyst.

1/ Image
Sony is focusing on 3 key areas this gen:

Premium hardware at an affordable price
Exclusive content from first party & partners
Network services + Ecosystem

The PS5 is very much the center of the PlayStation ecosystem, with network services helping to bridge a smooth transition
The PS5 very much feels like a next gen console and has the innovation to match

DualSense increases the immersion of playing games

Custom SSD enables faster load times & unique game design

Its dual SKU strategy doesn’t compromise on power

The new UI feels snappy & responsive
Read 22 tweets
12 Nov
Not surprising to see PUBG Corp take this route.

PUBG Mobile was the #1 grossing mobile game in India, and its ban was felt by both the developers and players.

This new custom version will aim to satisfy regulators, but it remains to be seen if this will be enough.
I put together a thread on this topic a couple of days back with my thoughts on how this would all play out.

PUBG Mobile is still technically banned. Indian regulators would either need to overturn it, or simply allow this custom version to launch.

The ironic aspect is that India banned the game for its affiliation with Tencent / China

Yet this custom ver. of the game is clearly the China version from Tencent

Green blood? Virtual training ground? Limits on playtime?

Yep, that's the China version

Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
Among Us continues to grow in popularity worldwide, now surpassing 217m installs on mobile.

It's not easy to play the game in China though, as it does not have a Simplified Chinese localisation / local servers.

So what can Chinese gamers do? 1/

venturebeat.com/2020/11/09/sen…
2/ It's worth noting that the game does not have an official license to operate in China. China is a complicated market where video games are regulated heavily.

Achieving an official release requires working with a Chinese publisher and gaining approval from regulators.
3/ China is a country of 685 million gamers that spent over $33 billion on games last year. Players have diverse tastes and actively seek out new and fun experiences.

Whether a game has an official release or no localisation at all, Chinese gamers will discover and play them.
Read 11 tweets
10 Nov
PUBG Corp's partnership with Microsoft to host PUBG and PUBG Mobile on Azure has led to speculation that the company made the move so that it can re-enter the India market, where the game was banned earlier this year

Going to do a quick thread on this 1/

techcrunch.com/2020/11/05/pub…
In case you missed this article I wrote, India has banned a number of Chinese published mobile games due to rising tensions between the two countries and potential national security issues.

PUBG Mobile was banned because Tencent is the dev and publisher.

nikopartners.com/indias-ban-of-…
Even with Tencent moving its servers / data to India, the game was still banned by the govt due to its Chinese affiliation.

As I noted at the time, the game was #1 in India by downloads / revenue. The the ban was a huge blow to both Tencent / PUBG Corp

Read 9 tweets
10 Nov
I've had the Xbox Series X for over 3 weeks now, and with the Xbox Series X|S launching today, I wanted to share some quick thoughts and previous twitter threads i've done regarding Xbox's future strategy.

Primarily from my POV as an analyst.

My key takeaway is that the console has a very premium and polished feel to it. From the design of the console to the UI and software

It's launching in a more complete state than the Xbox One did and is bolstered by new technology & innovations to improve the overall experience
Quick resume is indeed impressive.

After finishing Tell Me Why Ch1 I was able to instantly jump into Forza to complete a few races, then jump back to Tell Me Why after Ch2 finished downloading, with each transition taking just a few seconds.

No need to quit / restart games.
Read 11 tweets

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