Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Nov 14, 2020 10 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1) Quebec set more grim records in the #pandemic Friday, all of them in the educational sector. The most notable one is 1,241 classes shuttered due to #COVID19 exposure, up by 27 from the day before. In this thread, I will take stock of the growing contagion in schools.
2) Another record: a total of 3,193 students and staff have tested positive for the #coronavirus, up by 159 since Thursday. That increase represents the second biggest daily spike recorded during the second wave. A third record: 950 schools now have at least one #COVID19 case. Image
3) A fourth record: the province reported 417 #COVID19 clusters in schools, up by two since Thursday and 43 since a week ago. Nearly half of all of Quebec’s schools have confirmed cases since the start of the academic year, according to covidecolesquebec.org.
4) No wonder Quebec Premier François Legault warned Thursday the government might close schools for longer than the holiday break next month. And on Friday, Education Minister Jean-François Roberge said Quebec is now considering reduced class sizes. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/cu…
5) What’s hard to comprehend is why Quebec is only now considering smaller class sizes and is still studying whether to install portable air purifiers despite having all summer to prepare for this worst-case scenario. I devoted an entire Twitter thread to schools back on July 25. Image
6) Meanwhile, Quebec on Friday reported its highest seven-day rolling average during the second wave: 150.83 #COVID19 cases per million population. The province also crossed the threshold of 12,000 active #coronavirus infections.
7) Montreal posted 317 #COVID19 infections, its third straight day in the 300-range. The city’s rolling average rose to 145.08 cases. Some experts say the U.S. is now in its third wave. The chart below suggests Montreal already went through a second (tiny?) wave in the summer. Image
8) At the neighborhood level, the entire metropolis is beset with community transmission of the #coronavirus, as the chart below makes clear. These #COVID19 cases will lead to a smaller number of hospitalizations in two to three weeks’ time, and two weeks after that, more deaths. Image
9) Montreal declared four more #COVID19 fatalities Friday, raising the city’s death toll to 3,566. (See the chart below.) To date, almost one-third of the city’s deaths (1,026) have occurred in the east end of the city. What does this fact say about Montreal? Image
10) There are #COVID19 cynics who dwell on cases versus hospitalizations and deaths, or who seek to minimize the threat that crowded, poorly-ventilated schools pose to community transmission in Montreal. But the time for cynicism is now over. End of thread. Stay safe, everyone. Image

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Mar 13
1) On Tuesday, the Quebec government unveiled its 2024-2025 budget, with the biggest expenditure to be made on health and social services. In this Twitter thread, I assess whether this "Health/Education Priorities" budget lives up to its hype, especially when it comes to seniors.
2) As you can see from the chart below, the lion's share of spending in the budget is for health and social services, pegged at $61.9 billion — up by 4.17% from the year before. In contrast, spending on education — so vital to Quebec's future — will rise 9.35% to $22.3 billion. Image
3) But as far as health and social services is concerned, Tuesday's budget may be indulging in a bit of spin. The chart below states that Quebec will spend an extra $3.7 billion over the next five years to "support a humane and effective organization of health care." Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 5
1) "The pandemic is far from over," one of the preeminent experts on #COVID19, Dr. Eric Topol, declared today, Jan. 4, 2024 — three years after the world first learned of a novel virus that was killing people in China. In this thread, I take stock of what's going on in Quebec.
2) "The pandemic is far from over, as evidenced by the rapid rise to global dominance of the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2," Topol noted in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. In Quebec, nearly one in two genetic samples collected was from JN.1 as of two weeks ago. It's likely higher now. Image
3) "Clearly this virus variant, with its plethora of new mutations, has continued its evolution ... for infecting or reinfecting us," Topol added. Although the updated booster is considered 60% protective against hospitalization, only 17% of the Quebec population has taken it.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
1) BREAKING: By every major indicator, Quebec's health-care system is now arguably the worst it's ever been. Please click on my story below on Quebec wait lists for cancer and other surgery setting record highs — again. via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Although Quebec has made it a priority to tackle wait lists for cancer surgery, more than 4,400 oncology patients are still waiting for their operations. More than 600 are waiting longer than the medically acceptable delay of 57 days, potentially putting their health at risk. Image
3) Even the wait list for so-called non-urgent surgery has now swelled to nearly 164,000 people. Almost 14,000 Quebecers today have been waiting more than a year for their surgery. At a year's wait, a non-urgent surgery starts to become urgent. Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 6, 2023
1) BREAKING: Quebec, like other jurisdictions across North America, is now in the midst of a new #COVID19 resurgence — nearly 4 years into the #pandemic. In this thread, I will assess the implications of this latest wave of infections, likely driven by a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Image
2) On Dec. 5, Quebec declared a total of 2,214 hospitalizations with and for #COVID. Please note this increase also reflects a change in the way Quebec's public health institute has been compiling such hospitalizations. But make no mistake: Quebec is still facing a resurgence. Image
3) The United States is also facing a #COVID hospitalizations resurgence, with 20,000 new admissions per week, according to preeminent expert @EricTopol. In the U.S., the JN.1 variant is becoming dominant, with wastewater levels surging with SARS-CoV-2. See Topol's tweet below. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 13, 2023
1) BREAKING: Jewish-owned businesses in Montreal are being targeted and vandalized with antisemitic profanity. Please click below to read my report.
via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) "Last weekend, they put swastikas on the … menus downtown and they wrote FUCK THE JEWS," a Jewish business owner told me. I have also seen a list of Jewish businesses that is circulating, provoking not only boycotts but vandalism.
3) The Gazette has decided not to publish these disturbing images, as the Jewish business owners are fearful of reprisals.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 16, 2023
1) BREAKING: A month after Japan downgraded #COVID19 to the seasonal flu, the country is now beset with a 9th wave of infections. In this thread, I will explore the persistence of the #pandemic that everyone — especially politicians — wants to forget. Image
2) First, it's worth noting that the number of #COVID hospitalizations in the nation of 125 million rose to 4,330 from 4,122 a week before. The seven-day average for the number of patients in intensive care units was 79, according to the Japan Times.
3) It appears that XBB subtypes of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are driving the latest wave of infections in Japan. Meanwhile, China has recorded a more than five-fold surge in the number of people diagnosed with COVID in hospitals since April. China is also bracing for another wave. Image
Read 7 tweets

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