Biden will win the popular vote by 4-5%. If he did 0.75% worse, this would be the electoral map. A similar vote tally in House and Senate elections gives the Dems a bare majority of House seats and 48-50 Senate ones. The GOP can control every branch of gov't on 48.5% of the vote. 
With GOP legislatures in control of the redistricting process in most states, it's conceivable that an identical 4-5% popular defeat in 2024 will hand the House to the Republican Party. The same is likely true for the Senate.
The results are even more lopsided at the state level. A 4-5% national majority failed to flip a single State House or Senate to the Democrats (instead they lost both in NH and likely lost one in Alaska). Democrats now control 18.5 state legislatures. ballotpedia.org/Partisan_compo…
The situation in the judiciary is no better and even harder to change. Democratic presidents appointed 33% of Supreme Court justices, 45% of the justices in Circuit Courts, and 51% in District Courts. Despite winning the popular vote in 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections.
One implication of the above (beyond the quality of democracy in the US) is that Democrats cannot win national elections without appealing to independents and some Republicans. There are simply too many red states and red districts. And as we saw in '20, demographics aren't fate.
In 2018, the Democrats won 53.4% of the national vote in House elections, the second time the Democrats got >53% of the vote in 12 years. The last time the GOP managed the same feat? 1946. During the same 12-year stretch, the GOP controlled the House 2/3 of the time.
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