It's become fashionable in certain circles to call NATO expansion a mistake responsible for current enmity between Russia and the US. The main mistake these analysts make is to ignore the counterfactual: what would central and eastern Europe look like without NATO expansion?
1. Given the revival of nationalism in central and eastern Europe (CEE), numerous incompatibilities between nations and states, a long and bloody history of conflict, and no security guarantees from the West, war would be an almost foregone conclusion.
2. Without pressure from NATO to create professional militaries under the firm control of civilian officials, coups would be a constant concern, especially in countries on the losing end of the aforementioned wars. Democratization would be all but impossible in this environment.
3. The resulting instability would likely draw in the region's neighbors, including Germany and Russia (and that worked out great before). Yeltsin would feel intense pressure from Russian nationalists to take advantage of the situation and reclaim some Warsaw Pact territories.
4. Meanwhile, Estonia and Latvia, with no need to please the West, would crack down hard on their Russian minorities. That wouldn't play well in Moscow.
5x. That means Yeltsin could avoid making hard decisions about Russian economic & political reforms, instead playing the rally-around-the-flag card. The result? A more nationalist, socialist, and autocratic Russia in the 1990s. Would that really be better than where we are today?
