Here's an update ahead of the Brexit negotiations resuming in Brussels:
1/ The main obstacles remain fisheries, the level playing field and governance. The big sticking point has shifted to the so-called evolution or "ratchet" clauses in the non-regression provisions, ie that both sides evolve their standards in tandem over time...
2/ In particular the UK is resisting the ability for either side to retaliate if they depart from the level playing field. The fact that the "baseline" remains the standards both sides operate on Jan 1 - ie, EU-level standards, also remains an issue for London.
3/ Elsewhere, jointly drafted text on the non-contentious areas has been largely provisionally agreed, although with a lot of [square brackets] - denoting the fact that nothing is agreed till everything is agreed
4/ On state aid, the landing zone remains Michel Barnier's tool box of four elements: high level principles, an independent UK enforcement authority, a dispute settlement mechanism, and autonomous (ie swift) retaliatory measures while arbitration is ongoing
5/ It's understood quite a few drafts have changed hands on this area, but no breakthrough yet. On fisheries, I'm told that both sides remain "miles apart".
6/ On the link btwn fish & the UK enjoying access to the EU energy market, the EU message has been (roughly): you want to deny EU fleets access to British waters, yet we are offering you lucrative access to the EU energy market which is worth more than the fish in your waters
7/ Few diplomats believe Cummings' departure from Number 10 will make that much difference - maybe a little on the state aid issue.
8/ There had been hopes last weekend that if there was progress this week then Michel Barnier would brief EU ambassadors today [Sun 15th] to outline the state of play, but by mid-week that "went out the window".
9/ There is some talk of such a meeting happening on Wednesday this week - but nothing confirmed. Likewise there is talk of another Barnier briefing next Sunday. Either way, member states are wanting to know what is going on and what they will have to sign up to.
10/ That is why time is getting very tight and that is making everyone nervous. The treaty is so far running to some 600 pages, including annexes (compared to the EU's original draft of 430 pages). That's a lot of dense legal text for capitals to process, and for MEPs to digest
11/ MEPs need to run the treaty through at least three committees before they vote in plenary session on December 16. They will not be happy if the time to run these processes gets more and more compressed.
12/ The other question is whether the treaty will be "EU only" or "mixed". For the uninitiated, EU only means it deals with competences which are exclusively EU, and that means that once the European Council and the European Parliament approve it, it's all ratified
13/ If it's "mixed" it touches upon both national and EU competences. Then it has to be ratified by every national parliament (and some regional ones as well). Aviation is not an exclusive EU competence, and some member states have big interests there.
14/ Ultimately it will be a political decision taken by member states (via the General Affairs Council) if and when a deal is done. If it's mixed it could take up to two years for the treaty to be ratified.
15/ Parts of the treaty could be applied provisionally on Jan 1, but only the exclusive EU competence parts. Provisional application is not "innocent". One can imagine the link between "provisional" and the UK Internal Market Bill, for example
16/ EU leaders are meeting by video link on Thurs, but any suggestion that this is a deadline is dismissed out of hand. EU leaders do not negotiate over video link, although they may get a briefing from Barnier/Ursula von der Leyen on the state of play
17/ If there is good progress this week and there are only a few outstanding sticking points, then a further Boris Johnson/Von der Leyen phone call could be in the works.
18/ But time really will be running out by the end of next week. Diplomats say early the following week is really the last cut off. A 600 page treaty has to be legally scrubbed and translated into 23 official languages.
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If you’re wondering about the UK Parliament’s role in ratifying the EU-UK future relationship treaty, there’s a handy guide here from the House of Commons Library commonslibrary.parliament.uk/uk-parliaments…
2/ But to save you the trouble, I’ve summarised it here.
3/ Firstly, it’s the UK govt, not parliament, which negotiates a treaty under its prerogative power. These powers are subject to some constraints. The Constitutional Reform & Governance Act (CRAG) gives parliament a limited role in ratifying treaties
Some important advice from John O'Loughlin of @PwC ahead of January 1 2021 during a webcast alongside @GavinBarwell@carinbryans and @mcgeedavid. Basically any Irish companies which export to the UK or import from the UK should know the following:
2/ "At a minimum you need a EORI number, the equivalent of a VAT number, you need that to lodge a customs declaration. The people that lodge a customs declaration aren’t the company themselves nor is it someone like PWC, but it’s a customs agent...
3/ "They file and prepare the documentation..., you need to engage the services of a customs broker, have a mechanism to pay the customs duty and the right information and documentation to support tthe importation of those goods.
Response from European Commission spokes @DanielFerrie to the joint letter from @DUPleader and @moneillsf on food consignments to NI supermarkets under the NI Protocol:
2/ “We can confirm receipt of a letter from the First Minister and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland on the issue of agri-food goods brought into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. We will reply to this letter shortly.
3/ “The Withdrawal Agreement’s Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland prevents the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland. It protects peace, stability and prosperity, North-South cooperation and the integrity of the EU Single Market.
Breaking: The DUP and Sinn Fein leaders have sent a joint letter to the European Commission describing as “unacceptable” the alleged threat to the continuity of existing food supplies to Northern supermarkets once the Northern Ireland Protocol takes effect.
2/ The letter, seen by @rtenews, and signed by @DUPleader and @moneillsf, highlights the problem of the need for checks and controls on food products entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain from January 1 and how that might impact on the supply of food to supermarket chains.
3/ The First/Dep First Ministers write: “It is hard to imagine a more fundamental aspect of everyday life than the purchase of daily food supplies...
Here is the rough transcript and story of @realDonaldTrump's NI envoy, his meeting with @simoncoveney and the alleged threat of the EU using aviation as leverage over the UK if the Internal Market Bill led to a hard border on the island of Ireland.
2/ Mr Mulvaney was talking to the @iiea via video link.
Asked about the concerns in the US over the IMB, which breaches the NI Protocol, Mr Mulvaney said that in his meetings with all sides his worry was that the Bill could result in a border “by accident”.
3/ He told the presentation: “The best response I got on the matter was from Simon Coveney when I met with him in Dublin.
New: @MichelBarnier has given a "very downbeat" briefing to EU ambassadors on the state of play in the Brexit negotiations, @rtenews understands
2/ While there has been good progress on police and judicial cooperation, there has been no progress at all on the level playing field, fisheries and governance.
3/ In some of these areas Mr Barnier told diplomats that the UK had gone backwards on earlier understandings, such as the idea of a robust independent competition authority in the UK