Thread by @jburcum

Hospitalizations gone up 90% in last 10 days in Upper Midwest, Gov. Tim Walz says in today's COVID briefing. Says good news about Moderna vaccine is light at end of tunnel, but says we need to get all of us to that light at the end of the tunnel.

"Terrifying" is the word MDH Commish Jan Malcolm uses to describe global COVID numbers.

Based on current rate of growth, might get to 300K in MN by middle of next week .(Remember it took 27 weeks to get to first 100K, roughly six weeks to get to 200K, a point made last week by state health officials)

Previous tweet refers to cases.

Things that were relatively safe a month ago are now much higher risk, Malcolm says.

We really believe we are now at a crisis point, Malcolm says. Entire country is one "gigantic hotspot." Asking families to celebrate holidays with only members of immediate household.

Here's a link to the Georgia Tech county-level risk calculator that Malcolm mentioned. covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu

I just tried to use it but couldn't because so many people are trying to do the same.

Seems like Malcolm has ratcheted back even on Thanksgiving holiday guidelines from last week. I think it was 10 people or less from three different households. Now they're recommending only celebrating with immediate household.

Doctor now speaking is a member of @md4healthequity!

M Health Fairview doc thanking Minnesotans for giving providers better time to develop, expand tests and strengthen treatment for those who became infected.

Warns MN hospitals near capacity despite increasing capacity in 2020. Is very worried about rural hospitals and about capacity everywhere else to do other care, and have enough staffing. "The medical system needs your help again." Main ways: mask, avoid large indoor crowds.

Now speaking: Abbott NW nurse. Says she has been dubious about being a frontline worker because implies there is a second line. There isn't one, she says..

COVID patients are flowing in from all parts of the state - Stacy, Brainerd, Bemidji, everywhere. And "we said goodbye to patients we've been caring for for weeks."

Nurse calls out COVID denialists. "You need to believe nurses when we tell you these things are happening."

Your ability to sip beer at a party with friends is not more important than children going to school. Abbott NW nurse (sorry didn't catch her name but wow, she was good).

Health care workers across the state are getting sick. And if community doesn't take steps to prevent COVID's spread, who will be there to take care of patients? -- St. Kate's nursing professor speaking at MN Gov press confererence.

"Please, wear your mask and stay home." St Kate's nursing professor at MN Gov's press conference.

Walz says doctor and nurses who just spoke had important messages for Minnesota but are telling him what else he needs to do. (A nod towards more mitigation?)

In response to question, Walz says working with hospital association on policies that can help with staffing.

Q about when will MN "pull things back" further on mitigation. A. Walz says "obvious going to have to do more mitigation." Walz says need federal coordination to help but says MN will be "targeted." Working with Mayo, others on getting bang for buck on mitigation measures.

Walz says state is at 70% mask compliance - much room for improvement. This is about 20% lower than Carnegie Mellon measure I've seen but fits with what many of us have seen, especially outside metro.

MDH official Kris Ehresmann asked about reinfection and says "we do have evidence of that." Doesn't appear that there is lifetime protection.

Walz lauds work done under Trump administration on vaccine distribution plans for coming months.

MDH Commish: First wave of vaccinations expected in December/ January and the priority will be health care staff in acute care and long-term care. Followed by high-risk patients. General vaccination expected second/third quarter of 2021.

Q about winter high school sports. A from Walz. Expect guidance from state in next day or so.

Malcolm says infections linked to sports are growing and from health advice perspective would like to see a "pause on sports."

Volleyball and hockey have most outbreaks linked to them, state health officials says.

Walz is asked about Gazelka testing positive.. declines to comment on Senate majority leader resigning. Does criticize White House advisor Scott Atlas tweeting for people to rise up against Michigan Whitmer. Focus needs to be on preventing COVID, protecting health care staff.

There was another question asked about long-term care cases. Best data is in this weekly MDH report, starting at p. 38. Data is mixed, but looks better than last spring. One thing under the radar is how hard hit group homes have been hit. health.state.mn.us/diseases/coron…

And that's a wrap. Thanks for following along.