Thread by @lennysan

Data points from Airbnb's S-1 that get me excited about its future:

1. *91%* of all traffic comes organically from direct or unpaid channels. This is the key to Airbnb's strategy (winning at direct traffic, avoiding paid growth), and it's working.

More in thread 👇

2/ Not only is traffic cheaper (since it's mostly organic), but guest cohort retention is also much higher than the competition. It's also a rare "smiling curve" – it goes UP over time.

3/ Similarly, host cohort revenue retention hits *100%* over time, and also increases after year two. That doesn't mean tons of hosts don't leave (note: this is revenue retention, not user retention), but this is promising.

4/ The Average Daily Rate (ADR) is up 20% YoY, for the first time in likely ever. This is the result of guests staying in larger, nicer, homes, and I'm betting this won't completely revert to the mean after COVID.

5/ And Q3 of this year saw an ALL-TIME high in EBITDA profit (over $500m). Who would have thought.

6/ All that being said, there are 74 pages of "Risk factors" in the S-1 🤯

I'm looking forward to more in-depth S-1 breakdowns over the next few weeks from people much smarter than I, but I'm optimistic.
sec.report/Document/00011…