Some thoughts on the PM 10-point package. First, the politics. This is the first substantial climate intervention by a PM since the start of the coalition. That matters. It gives a clear signal outside and, just as importantly, inside Government that this is a priority....
Second, the 2030 ban on new ICE cars and vans is a huge step, and carries real political risk. This underlines the seriousness of intent. Such a regulatory move is much more important for innovators/investors than subsidy, which is why moans about money committed is overdone....
It also underlines the 'dance' between innovation and policy. Imagine trying to do this 10 years ago when G-Whizzes were pottering around. Much easier with Model 3s on the streets, and prices falling. The regulatory move now confirms that innovation-driven transition.
Important commitment to technologies which have high system values: nuclear, CCUS and hydrogen. @EnergySysCat whole system analysis underlines the importance of them for reaching 2050 targets es.catapult.org.uk/reports/innova…
Also love the audacity of the hydrogen towns proposal. Hopefully this can lead to a series of pathfinding Net Zero towns and cities across the country. We need to test how Net Zero is going to work in places and harness local political climate ambition.
Buildings: toughest nut to crack of them all. Some significant funding on energy efficiency and low carbon heating, and commitment to 600k/year heat pumps is a big step forward in ambition.
But low carbon heating will only take off at the pace and scale we need when there are desirable consumer propositions in the market (which in turn need regulatory and economic signals for innovators to invest -- we need to start the same dance we had with EVs, with buildings).
And what was really intriguing in the PM's FT article was the explicit mention of carbon pricing (see famous @danialsturge chart for how badly we are doing on this); and a new taskforce.
The taskforce is important not just for a show of political will, but because we need to make sure all this stuff fits together. And it needs to work for people; low carbon needs to be better and, where possible, cheaper.
The scale of the changes required at the pace required (as digitalisation also lands on the energy sector) mean we need to think anew about the market and regulatory arrangements that are going to make the shift to low carbon as smooth as possible. medium.com/@guynewey/fixi…
So a massive step forward (funnily enough, five years to the day since @AmberRuddUK 'reset' speech), but more massive steps still to come....
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A thread on nuclear in the UK, in light of the unsurprising, although disappointing, decision by Hitachi to walk away from Wylfa....
Our analysis @EnergySysCat finds that the strategic case for nuclear remains robust. We think it is likely low regrets to commit to 10GW of nuclear beyond HPC (there is a recording of an excellent webinar discussion of the findings at the link).
That case has weakened a bit in recent years, due to the remarkable success of renewables. Offshore wind will likely be the workhorse of the power system in the coming decades, and our ability to manage a 'windier' is improving all the time, although much more needed.
This is a tour-de-force from @MLiebreich on the potential for improvements in energy efficiency -- so much more than lagging. Key line, for me, among many: "Digitization is an all-round energy efficiency game-changer...."
"... enabling more efficient use of built infrastructure from office desks to water pipes, highway lanes to parking spaces...."
Meanwhile, digital innovation by companies like Smartwires, Octopus, Ohme and BNEF Pioneers Enbala and Limejump enable smart management of existing electrical infrastructure."
On a very warm Friday afternoon, a short thread on my experience with @tado this winter and what it might mean for the decarbonisation of the UK's homes (1/n)
For those of you who don't know, Tado is a system that allows you to control the temperature of your home room-by-room. You have to change your radiator valves, which is pretty easy, and then everything is connected to your app (see picture)
You can just turn it up or down manually (whether you are at home or not) or set a schedule. It also has a geofencing function, which means it will turn your heating on automatically when your are on your way home.
Our experience in our trials is that most consumers really like this. They like the control and they quickly begin to understand how what they pay relates to what service they get, and adjust accordingly. That is a long way from the current low level of understanding of energy.
Such service offerings can also work for companies: offering a better product, building trust with your customers. Crucially, heat-as-a-service-type models could allow businesses to design and deliver better integrated low carbon heating solutions as part of a monthly package.
How to decarbonise heating is probably the thorniest problem in UK energy policy. Here is are a couple of (too long) threads on how we @EnergySysCat approach the problem….
1. Start with the consumer, not the technology (or the top-down model)
We love a model, don’t get me wrong. Our 2050 whole-systems scenario work is quite clear; to meet existing 2050 targets, you are basically going to have to largely decarbonise domestic and non-domestic heating. es.catapult.org.uk/news/options-c…
Lot of attention, understandably, on the PM announcement this week on freezing fuel duty. Inevitably controversial. But it does raise the question of whether road transport is under or over taxed from a carbon pricing point of view (thread)
We @EnergySysCat are looking closely at carbon pricing. It is pretty clear that if you want to create energy markets that encourage low carbon innovation and identify cost-effective decarbonisation across different vectors, consistent carbon pricing would be a big help.