Thread by @guynewey

How to decarbonise heating is probably the thorniest problem in UK energy policy. Here is are a couple of (too long) threads on how we @EnergySysCat approach the problem….

1. Start with the consumer, not the technology (or the top-down model)

We love a model, don’t get me wrong. Our 2050 whole-systems scenario work is quite clear; to meet existing 2050 targets, you are basically going to have to largely decarbonise domestic and non-domestic heating. es.catapult.org.uk/news/options-c…

This cost-optimised path sees a big role for hybrid systems of the kind that showed such significant benefits in the Freedom trial by @WWUtilities @PassivSystemsHQ @wpduk. wwutilities.co.uk/media/2829/fre…

In 2050 there is likely to be a lot of heat pumps around in this scenario, but often as part of a hybrid system. Alternatives like hydrogen would need a strong central Government push to take off, in particular how we source low carbon H2 (CCS potentially important here).

But whatever the model says, we will only achieve the scale we need if people accept/welcome low carbon heating systems in their homes.

Of course, the Government *could* just mandate everyone to do it, but I think that is politically, er, brave. There may be a better way...

This is not like low carbon electricity. Whether the power is generated from a wind turbine or a coal-fired power station, when I go to turn the lights on, they come on.

The same cannot be said of low carbon heating systems. Heat pumps perform in a very different way to gas-boilers (and are not always suited to the UK's leaky buildings -- underlining the importance of efficiency improvements).

So the problem to solve is how do we get consumers to accept/buy/welcome low carbon alternatives? That means we need consumer propositions which are as good, if not better than their current experience.

2. Digitalisation offers significant potential to improve the consumer experience (and the system)

Digitalisation is already beginning to change the energy system, but we are still in the foothills. But it is likely it will transform consumer offerings for energy in the same way it has in, well, pretty much every other sector.

NEST, HIVE, TADO, Alexa, are just the beginning. With @ovoenergy, I can get a monthly breakdown of my electricity use; an itemised bill (LED lightbulbs = amazing). Others are focusing on optimising the grid. EVs could change everything....

Digitalisation also offers the potential for people to have much greater CONTROL of how they heat their homes. Our work tries to understand what the smart home of the 2020s will look like and how they will deliver comfort.

Households can set more specific schedules, they can turn off the heating in rooms they rarely use, they can warm up the home before they get back from work. And they can do all of this from their phone, rather than a clunky thermostat.

We are testing such a connected approach in our 100-home prototype, Living Lab. Many of the people taking part in the trial love that feeling of being in control of their heating.

It also offers the potential to improve the consumer offering from energy suppliers (and others) because they we are building a much better understanding of how energy is used in homes and what consumers actually want.

‘Have you considered this measure that could cut your energy use?’; ‘Do you know you are heating a room that you rarely use. Turning down the TRV could save you £x a year.’ These are potentially powerful propositions, much more powerful than generic efficiency advice.

(This is even more powerful when combined with a better understanding of the physics of how energy works in different homes. We have built a model of different domestic building archetypes that can help here. Come and talk to us (in particular @richardhalsey) about it…

It is worth stressing that most people’s experience of heating is not brilliant. Drafts, damp, they fight with their thermostat (or they fight with their other half over the thermostat), they don’t know what efficiency measures to install. There is a better way…

The other big advantage of a more digitalised energy sector, of course, is on a systems basis: a smarter, more efficient grid and a lower cost, low carbon energy systems. Huge opportunity. Will discuss another day…

3.Energy as a service offers potential to improve consumer experience, and enable low carbon heating systems.

Instead of selling energy by kWh, which no-one understands, and getting people to pay by direct debit, where no-one trusts if they are paying the right amount, could we sell energy a different way? The last two winters we have been testing selling ‘heat as a service’....

Instead of kWh you buy a number of warm hours. We give you a price for those hours. If you want a bit extra, you pay a bit more (crucially you do not pay more if it is colder, your supplier takes that risk). Combined with much greater control (different rooms, easy scheduling)

Heat as a service has been talked about for years. But digitalisation makes it a real possibility and we @energysyscat are actually trying it in the wild (or real people’s homes).

If you are a company and want to come and use our Living Lab to test a new idea or product, get in touch @EnergySysCat or with @MatthewLipson – we are building a national asset where innovative companies can test their ideas in a low cost way.