Follow-up from yesterday's hearing in Pennsylvania. I said the judge is likely to dismiss the case. Why do I think that? We have several clues - *other* than the fact that the case is terrible: (1) The Judge not only was extremely skeptical, he had specific targeted questions 1/
In particular to Trump's side. That sounds like a judge who has mostly written up an opinion, or knows what he wants it to say, but is giving the loser a chance to persuade him. As we all noted yesterday, Rudy was ... not persuasive. /2
(2) The judge refused to schedule an evidentiary hearing, which he'd need to if there was any chance he would grant injunctive relief to prevent the certification of the votes. (3) the briefing schedule the judge imposed (Today, and then Friday for the next briefs) does not /3
suggest the judge is hurrying the deny the motion to dismiss so that he can hear evidence. (4) The judge told Rudy that he should probably try to amend his Complaint - a sure sign that it's about to be dismissed - although he caught himself and said "I haven't prejudged it" /4
(5) The judge is not acting with the speed you'd need to get relief on Rudy's side. Not even close.

It reads to me like the Judge has decided the case; he's letting Rudy make a record by filing a brief today and filing leave to amend; and then he's going to grant the MTD and /5
deny leave to amend.

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More from @RMFifthCircuit

17 Nov
Ok, here is my complete thread on today’s hearing in PA. Takeaways: I think the Judge was very skeptical of Trump’s claims. I’d expect him to dismiss the case on Friday. Rudy Giuliani … did not do a good job.
Rudy was unable to express a single clear answer to anything the judge asked; he hardly understood the questions; and then desperately sought to amend his complaint again but didn’t know you needed to file a motion for leave.
One note in response to some comments. Yes, I think Rudy is a huckster (now, not in the 80s) and Trump’s claims are frivolous. But when I’m making fun of Rudy, it’s not because of that. There are actual answers a lawyer working for Trump could give. Not good ones. But answers.
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov
OK, I am theoretically in this MD Pa. motion to dismiss hearing conference call. Right now we've got some snappy hold music. But if I'm in, I will live-tweet.
We're still happily bopping around over here. But no hearing.
OK, we're on! "We will begin" says a voice. But what will begin? A polka dance? Hold 'em tourney?
Read 111 tweets
11 Nov
I agree with the people that say that the ACA lawsuit was a uniquely weak lawsuit, but the people saying that the ACA was never in any danger are ignoring the fact that DOJ itself is asking for the law to be struck down.
"It's such a weak lawsuit that it was always doomed so don't worry about Justice Barrett" is inconsistent with "the Solicitor General of the United States is telling SCOTUS to strike down the Act in full."
Unless your theory is, well ignore the SG, he's just being silly for political points. That is not my experience of that office - I think they usually advocate the positions they want to happen.
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
OK, SCOTUS has arrived. c-span.org/video/?471185-…
We're starting with the California Solicitor General's 2 minute free-time. After that, Chief Justice Roberts will start off the questioning and then we go down the seniority list. This is weird - it's because we're having telephone arguments.
Roberts starts with standing - he questions whether the plaintiffs even are injured by the mandate. What if Congress passes a law requiring everyone to mow their lawn?
Read 68 tweets
9 Nov
Three more Fifth Circuit arguments scheduled for this year. Going to hit my career high in arguments for a year this year (8).

That’s not a humble brag. Just a brag that if you’re totally determined to make this your career you might make it happen. #appellatetwitter
Yes I know, fed defender friends are going to show up at some point and say they had 25. Ok, but these things are rarer on the ground on the civil side.
I also want to note we’re pretty fanatical about getting other people arguments. @TWapplaw’s insistence was how I started getting them, and we are always working to get them to others too.
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov
I've noticed some of my new followers from the Texas voting case don't know I cook or why. So let me tell the origin story real quick. My mom is one of the great home cooks.

When I went to college overseas, I wandered downstairs to the cafeteria the first night. 1/
I got a tray and went down the line. A sort of gruff lady yelled, "What kind of soup do ye want?" I asked what there was. She said, "red, green, & clear." I said, "What?"

And she said, "The flavors change, the colors stay the same." 2/
The food was as undelicious as that intro promised. But our dorm had kitchens on each hallway. So a week into school, I order @NigelSlater's great cookbook, Real Food. That, now, was more than 20 years ago.

I was terrible at cooking. Awful. /3
Read 7 tweets

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