Taniel Profile picture
Nov 19, 2020 44 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Every state had big stakes on the ballot. I previewed them before Nov. 3 — and now we know enough to revisit it all.

Here's a new thread on each & every state, and DC & Puerto Rico too. Idea is to encapsulate as much of what went down as I can within 280 characters. Let's go!
As a first step: Here's the pre-election thread if you want to explore it.

Of course, most of the information here is available on my whatsontheballot.com/2020-general-e…!

And a series of December/January runoffs, of course, still loom large. The cycle is not over!

1️⃣ Oregon:
—became the first state to decriminalize drug possession
—legalized psilocybin
—Dems flipped the Secretary of State office
—Portland/Mulntomah adopted preschool for all
—Portland's mayor beat left challenge
—Rep. DeFazio re-elected in tighter than usual race
2️⃣ Colorado:
—Dems gain a US Senate seat, & a state Senate seat
—Anti-abortion measure lost
—Voters approved Popular Vote Compact, *&* paid medical/family leave, *&* bringing back wolves, *&* lowering income tax
—New reform-minded DAs
—Boebert won
—Boulder voted to curb evictions
3️⃣ Florida
—Swings to Trump
—GOP gains US House *&* legislative seats
—Voters approve $15 minimum wage
—Dems gain Miami-Dade mayor
—Progressive wins Orlando DA. "Tougher-on-crime" loses in Tampa
—Pinellas sheriff wins
—Reject: initiative to make initiatives harder, "Top 2" system
4️⃣ South Carolina:
—Lindsey Graham wins
—Dems flip Charleston sheriff's office with candidate who vowed to end ICE contract
—GOP keeps Charleston's prosecutor office amid racial justice faultlines
—GOP picks-up House seat (SC-1).
—GOP expands majority in both legislative chambers
5️⃣ South Dakota:
—Approved legalizing marijuana
—Separately, approved legalizing medical marijuana

6️⃣ North Dakota:
—Rejected an initiative that would have made future citizen initiatives harder (one of 3 states to reject this)
—GOP Gov. re-elected, & GOP grows in legislature
7️⃣ Oklahoma
—GOP flipped #OK05
—Rejected a measure to make some sentences less harsh
—GOP defended Oklahoma Co. board (OK's most populous)
—Trump won every county (trend since 2000)
—State's first Muslim lawmaker

8️⃣ Idaho
—GOP flipped back Ada Co. commission (ID's most populous)
9️⃣ Minnesota:
—Dems flip a state Senate seat, but fall short of gaining the chamber & the trifecta.
—Dems held for Biden, & for Tina Smith
—& for a Justice facing a conservative challenge
—GOP flip MN07, a very Trump-friendly district
—Some municipalities adopt ranked-choice
1️⃣0️⃣ Missouri
—GOP won Gov race, & MO-02
—Adopted measure erasing 2018's redistricting reform
—Cori Bush heads to Congress
—Kim Gardner reelected
—St. Louis approved approval voting, *&* raising tax to fund childhood services
—St. Louis rejects allowing police to not live in city
1️⃣1️⃣ Alaska:
—Approved new electoral system ("Top 4", mixed with ranked-choice voting)
—GOP keeps U.S. Senate, U.S. House seat
—Narrowest GOP presidential win since 1992
—Uncertain if GOP controls trifecta (Dems/GOP dissidents won enough to keep their legislative coalition going)
1️⃣2️⃣ Washington D.C.
—Decriminalized (mostly) psilocybin mushrooms
—1st election since DC abolished felony disenfranchisement
—Council moves left (but the more progr. lost at-large race)

1️⃣3️⃣ Virginia
—Approves redistricting reform
—Richmond mayor wins
—No flip in US House races
1️⃣4️⃣ Maryland:
—Approved measure to strengthen legislature
—Legalized sports betting
—School board candidates that want to get police out of schools do well in Prince George's Co.
—Baltimore approved weakening mayoral power
—Baltimore approved affordable housing, schools, bonds
1️⃣5️⃣ Montana:
—Marijuana legalization wins
—GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House races
—GOP flipped open Governor's race. First wince since 2000. And it's Gianforte.
—GOP grows in legislature. Also wins SoS & AG races.
—GOP seizes trifecta
—Measure to preempt local gun control wins
1️⃣6️⃣ Kansas:
—GOP wins U.S. Senate race. Dems haven't won since 1932.
—GOP defends #KS02, and Dems defend #KS03
—GOP keeps its legislative supermajorities
—GOP keeps Shawnee DA office over reform candidate
1️⃣7️⃣ New Hampshire
—Dems win big in federal races: WH, US Senate, US House
—GOP wins big in state races: keep Gov., flip House & Senate, seize trifecta

1️⃣8️⃣ Connecticut:
—Dems expand legislative majorities, maybe easing path for stalled reforms
—Dems keep all federal offices
1️⃣9️⃣ Vermont
—GOP governor re-elected
—Dems/progressive lose their supermajority in state House
—Criminal justice reformers win elections for high bailiff
—Dems win AG, SoS, LG, Treasurer races
—Biggest shift against the GOP in the presidential race of all states
2️⃣0️⃣ Washington
—Approves mandatory sex ed
—Gov. Inslee wins
—as do Justices he named
—as does GOP SoS
—as does the school superintendent targeted over sex ed
—The more moderates win all-D runoffs for LG & WA10
—No net change in legislature; Tarra Simmons wins
—No federal change
2️⃣1️⃣ Ohio
—Dems flip Supreme Court seat. GOP keeps 2nd, & majority
—Trump easily
—Reformer wins Cincinnati sheriff
—Cincinnati prosecutor beats reformer
—Columbus prosecutor protested over policing loses
—Columbus sets up police oversight board
—No change in U.S. House races
2️⃣2️⃣ Mississippi:
—Legalizes medical marijuana
—Approves new state flag
—GOP wins Senate, Supreme Court races

2️⃣3️⃣ Arkansas:
—Rejected initiative to make progressive initiatives harder
—Renewed sales tax for transportation
—GOPer who targeted challenger for being black wins AR-2
2️⃣4️⃣ Michigan
—Biden flips it.
—Dems flip state Supreme Court (gain one Justice)
—Dems kept U.S. Senate seat. No House change.
—GOP defends state House
—Reformer wins Oakland & Washtenaw prosecutor
—GOP sheriff reelected in Oakland
—Approve requiring warrants for electronic data
2️⃣5️⃣ Utah
—GOP flips UT-04
—Voters approve removing constitutional allowance of slavery as a punishment
—Dems keep mayor of Salt Lake Co.
—GOP keeps Gov, AG
—Trump gained

2️⃣6️⃣ Indiana
—GOP wins IN-05
—GOP wins Gov & AG races
—GOP net seats in state House (but Dems +1 in Senate)
2️⃣7️⃣ Wisconsin
—Biden wins presidential race: tipping-point state
— Dem gains in Assembly; GOP gains in Senate
—GOP fails to win supermajorities in either gerrymandered chamber

2️⃣8️⃣ New Jersey
—Legalized marijuana (easily)
—No flips in US House, incl. Dem NJ7 & Van Drew's NJ2
2️⃣9️⃣ Maine
—Susan Collins wins re-election, big Senate win for GOP
#ME02: goes for Trump, & for the Dem House incumbent
—Portland, ME, voted for higher minimum wage, new housing protections, ban on facial recognition tech
—Dems defend state Senate & House, keep their trifecta
3️⃣0️⃣ Kentucky:
—Mitch McConnell re-elected
—Very large GOP gains in legislature
—Conservative wins Supreme Court race
—Voters adopt Marsy's Law
—Voters reject doubling prosecutors' terms

3️⃣1️⃣ Alabama:
—Sen. Doug Jones loses
—Voters approve "citizens only" voting measure
3️⃣2️⃣ Puerto Rico:
—Approves statehood measure
—PNP's Pierluisi wins Gov.

3️⃣3️⃣ Wyoming:
—In legislature, far-right surge in GOP primaries, and then Dem losses in Nov
—Voters rejects lifting debt ceiling for some local projects
3️⃣4️⃣ Arizona
—Biden flipped it
—Dems now hold both US Senate seats
—Easily legalized marijuana
—Raised tax on higher incomes for public education
—GOP kept legislature, trifecta
—Arpaio's ex-deputy lost vs. Maricopa's Dem sheriff
—But GOP won DA, recorder, board races in Maricopa
3️⃣5️⃣ Massachusetts:
—Rejected ranked choice voting
—Dems flip Norfolk Co. sheriff's race, a dress rehearsal for 2022

3️⃣6️⃣ Hawaii:
—More centrist candidate wins Honolulu Mayor
—For Honolulu prosecutor, more reform-minded of 2 runoff candidates wins
—Kai Kahele headed to DC
3️⃣7️⃣ Rhode Island:
—Removed 'plantation' from state name
—Legislature remains overwhelmingly Dem, with shifts:
—Wave of progressive wins over incumbents in primaries (they won in Nov. too)
—Centrist (Dem) Speaker ousted by GOP, upends chamber
3️⃣8️⃣ Nebraska:
—Bidens flipped Omaha's electoral vote
—GOP defended #NE02
—GOP fell short of legislative supermajority
—Voters removed constitutional allowance of slavery as a punishment
—Voters capped payday lending interests
3️⃣9️⃣ New Mexico
—GOP flips NM-02
—Dem defend open U.S. Senate seat
—Legislature shifts left (after prog. gains in Senate primaries)

4️⃣0️⃣ Delaware
—Progressives gained in Dem primaries (& won in Nov.)
—Dems expanded legislative majorities in Nov.
4️⃣1️⃣ Texas
—GOP kept House (no losses) & trifecta
—GOP keeps all its congressional seats
—Win for left for Travis Co. DA
—Austin approves transit $
—GOP sweeps SC, Railroad Comm. Dems narrow BofEd.
—Nueces Dem DA wins.
—Tarrant GOP sheriff wins. Fort Bend & Williamson's flip Dem.
4️⃣2️⃣ West Virginia:
—Really huge GOP gains in legislature (+18 in House)
—GOP sweeps statewide races, incl. Gov., AG, SoS
—GOP winning Treasurer ousts rare statewide Dem

4️⃣3️⃣ Tennessee
—New GOP U.S. Senator
—An ex-Dem lawmaker who'd sided with GOP on key bills loses to a Dem
4️⃣4️⃣ Nevada
—Voters easily repealed old ban on same-sex marriage
—And made pardons easier
—Dems defended U.S. House seats
—Biden wins, with days of national 👀
—Dems keep legislature (not supermajority), & their trifecta
—Public defenders win judicial races in Clark/Las Vegas
4️⃣5️⃣ Pennsylvania:
—Biden flipped it
—No flips in U.S. House despite plenty of attention.
—GOP keeps state House. (Progressives gain in Dem primaries.)
—Philly, Pittsburgh approved setting up or strengthening civilian oversight boards
—Dems win AG, & GOP wins Treasurer/Auditor.
4️⃣6️⃣ Illinois
—Rejected making income tax progressive
—No federal flips
—Newman heads to DC instead of Lipinski
—Kim Foxx reelected. Dems flip Lake prosecutor. Reformer falls short in DeKalb.
—A Justice *not* retained, sets up big 2022 battle
—Dems have trifecta. Madigan's fate?
4️⃣7️⃣ Iowa:
—Joni Ernst wins, in big GOP Senate victory
—GOP expand their narrow majority in state House
—GOP also defends state Senate, & trifecta
—Trump wins easily
—GOP flip at least 1 U.S. House seat. A 2nd in recount.
(At least that caucus is behind us.)
4️⃣8️⃣ Louisiana:
—Adopts anti-abortion referendum
—No flips in federal offices, in PSC races.
—Two public defenders win judicial races in New Orleans
—Rejected pair of amendments to constrain spending, affect revenue streams
—HEADS TO RUNOFF: DA race in New Orleans; reform stakes
4️⃣9️⃣ North Carolina:
—GOP wins Senate race, huge national stakes
—Dems win Gov race, keep veto power
—Dems flip 2 U.S. House seats (via new map)
—GOP keeps legislature, also Treasurer, LG.
—Dems keep AG, SoS, Auditor
—GOP flips at least 1 Supreme Court seat. May be 2; in recount.
5️⃣0️⃣ California (federal & statewide stakes):
—Voters expand voting rights
—Uber/Lyft/+ win anti-labor prop
—No to: aff. action, rent control, rolling back tax limits
—No to: rolling back sentencing reform
—GOP flip CA39/48. (CA21/25 still TBD).
—Dems grow further in state Senate
5️⃣0️⃣ California (local)
—Gascón wins LA's DA race on reform. Also LA: measure J.
—San Diego: yes to police review, Dems flip mayor & board
—Left wins in LA & Sacramento councils
—SF ends minimum police, ends citizens-only boards
—Oakland lowers voting age
—Transit win in Bay Area
5️⃣1️⃣ Georgia
—Biden wins
—Cobb/Gwinnett: Dems flip sheriff's races (& a lot more); ICE key issue.
—Dems flip GA-07
—GOP keeps legislature
—DA who didn't act after Arbery's murder ousted

—Runoffs! both U.S. Senate seats
—Also runoffs! PSC (key for climate, utilities), Athens DA
5️⃣2️⃣ New York
—Dems gain Senate supermajority (had Assembly's), beat back police unions attacks
—GOP flips NY11, keep NY24. NY22 TBD.
—WFP keeps its line
—Rocah wins Westchester DA
—Big left gains for Congress & legislature in primaries
—Trump’s NY boasting went nowhere

The end!
Thus this thread comes to an end!

As Biden prepares transition, don’t lose sight of the hundreds of other offices and sites of power decided this month — and what they’ll mean for 2/4 years ahead.

And let me know ↓ if I left out stuff I left out that you care about!

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More from @Taniel

Jul 20
France's hyper-fragmented Assembly has been voting all day for its new leadership, & finished choosing its 'secretaries' at 4-5am. I'm not quite sure how but Left coalition won 10 of the 12 final spots, giving it an out-of-nowhere majority in chamber's overall leadership council.
Since France entered its latest constitutional structure in 1958, nothing like what's unfolding now has ever happened—there's never been a situation where a bloc hasn't effectively controlled proceedings (even in rare hung parliaments). So IMO no one really knows what's going on.
(Correction: 1st tweet should have said 9, not 10.)

If you missed today's earlier updates, thread below lays out how the Macronists & conservatives got lion's share of the top positions earlier.

(This all mostly adds to my prior tweet's sentiment: 🤷‍♂️)
Read 6 tweets
Jul 7
JUST IN: Polls closed in France. Exit polls show surprise:

—Left coalition (New Popular Front) projected first. (!)
—Far-right (RN) has lost its bid to take power. Anti-RN front appears to have worked very well.
—No bloc close to majority.

Follow this 🧵 for results and more: Image
2nd leading pollster projects a similar result—if anything a higher range for the Left coalition.

This wld be a much stronger result than expected for the Macron bloc as well. Still, a big drop for them from outgoing Assembly (250, enough for governing with plurality). Image
Stepback: If you're getting to this thread & want background, here's a thread from this morning walking you through the big picture.

One key reminder: Left bloc & the Macron bloc are quite separate; as are conservatives (LR); as is far-right (RN).
Read 44 tweets
Jul 7
France is holding its parliamentary elections today.

Clear stakes: Will far-right end up governing France?

And if it fails, what possible coalition will end up governing given fragmentation?

You can follow me for results starting at 2pm ET; but a quick context 🧵:
Let’s start with: In France, president runs the show… as long as their party controls the Assembly. If presidential party loses that control, the president has few domestic powers—no veto, for instance. This isn’t a US-style split government. That’s why stakes today so high.
Macron called these just 4 weeks ago. Decision shocked his own allies.

He already lost his gamble: His bloc is sure to lose seats & its tentative control on Assembly. (He reportedly expected Left would fail to unite, & be knocked out of R1 most places; that didn’t happen.)
Read 10 tweets
Jul 5
Details reported in piece for those who can’t read it

—Macron’s team mostly shrugged off results on Sunday. They started celebrating a birthday as returned still coming in
—He didn’t bother watching as Prime Minister, Attal, gave forceful speech calling to block far-right.
(1/?)
—Attal began calling Macronist candidate who came in 3rd but made runoff, asking them to drop out to consolidate vs far-right.

—Attal surprised to realize Macron was calling some in parallel, asking them to NOT drop out. This would risk RN wins.

(We have other confirmation:)
—Macron Interior Ministry, Darmanin right of party, reportedly said organizing election on 7/7 is good bc “bledards [word for immigrants from North Africa] won’t be around & won’t vote Left.”

Note: Darmanin & RN nearly tied in round 1. Left dropped out, helping him, to block RN.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 30
JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right.

Far-right bloc: ≈34%
Left bloc: ≈28-29%
Macron bloc: ≈20-22%

What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️
Image
Image
Both estimates project that far-right will dominate the upcoming National Assembly — falling short so far of absolute majority, but not unattainable next week.

Left bloc projected 2nd. Macron's bloc, to collapse < 100 seats.

NOTE: This is projections of what'd happen NEXT WEEK.
Image
Image
First: If you are new to my timeline & need background, here's my thread from three weeks, with a lot of background.

The basic: This is largely a 3-way battle between far-right bloc, left bloc, & Macron bloc, with conservatives as a smaller fourth bloc.
Read 48 tweets
Jun 9
‼️ Shock news : French President Emmanuel Macron just announced he was dissolving the country's National Assembly.

He's calling national elections, which'll decide who'll run the country.

The elections were supposed to be in 2027. Instead, they'll be in early July (!!!).
The runoff of these parliamentary elections will be on July 7th... so 3 days after the UK elections! An extremely short campaign.

More context:

#1: This comes an hour after disastrous election results for Macron in the EU elections. (The far-right got 31% and Macron at 15%.)
#2: France currently has a hung Parliament due to weak results by Macron's party in 2022, tho his party has been able to govern because the conservative LR (despite not being in government) typically bail them out. Upside for Macron is if lighting campaigning gets him a majority.
Read 60 tweets

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