Taniel Profile picture
Nov 19, 2020 44 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Every state had big stakes on the ballot. I previewed them before Nov. 3 — and now we know enough to revisit it all.

Here's a new thread on each & every state, and DC & Puerto Rico too. Idea is to encapsulate as much of what went down as I can within 280 characters. Let's go!
As a first step: Here's the pre-election thread if you want to explore it.

Of course, most of the information here is available on my whatsontheballot.com/2020-general-e…!

And a series of December/January runoffs, of course, still loom large. The cycle is not over!

1️⃣ Oregon:
—became the first state to decriminalize drug possession
—legalized psilocybin
—Dems flipped the Secretary of State office
—Portland/Mulntomah adopted preschool for all
—Portland's mayor beat left challenge
—Rep. DeFazio re-elected in tighter than usual race
2️⃣ Colorado:
—Dems gain a US Senate seat, & a state Senate seat
—Anti-abortion measure lost
—Voters approved Popular Vote Compact, *&* paid medical/family leave, *&* bringing back wolves, *&* lowering income tax
—New reform-minded DAs
—Boebert won
—Boulder voted to curb evictions
3️⃣ Florida
—Swings to Trump
—GOP gains US House *&* legislative seats
—Voters approve $15 minimum wage
—Dems gain Miami-Dade mayor
—Progressive wins Orlando DA. "Tougher-on-crime" loses in Tampa
—Pinellas sheriff wins
—Reject: initiative to make initiatives harder, "Top 2" system
4️⃣ South Carolina:
—Lindsey Graham wins
—Dems flip Charleston sheriff's office with candidate who vowed to end ICE contract
—GOP keeps Charleston's prosecutor office amid racial justice faultlines
—GOP picks-up House seat (SC-1).
—GOP expands majority in both legislative chambers
5️⃣ South Dakota:
—Approved legalizing marijuana
—Separately, approved legalizing medical marijuana

6️⃣ North Dakota:
—Rejected an initiative that would have made future citizen initiatives harder (one of 3 states to reject this)
—GOP Gov. re-elected, & GOP grows in legislature
7️⃣ Oklahoma
—GOP flipped #OK05
—Rejected a measure to make some sentences less harsh
—GOP defended Oklahoma Co. board (OK's most populous)
—Trump won every county (trend since 2000)
—State's first Muslim lawmaker

8️⃣ Idaho
—GOP flipped back Ada Co. commission (ID's most populous)
9️⃣ Minnesota:
—Dems flip a state Senate seat, but fall short of gaining the chamber & the trifecta.
—Dems held for Biden, & for Tina Smith
—& for a Justice facing a conservative challenge
—GOP flip MN07, a very Trump-friendly district
—Some municipalities adopt ranked-choice
1️⃣0️⃣ Missouri
—GOP won Gov race, & MO-02
—Adopted measure erasing 2018's redistricting reform
—Cori Bush heads to Congress
—Kim Gardner reelected
—St. Louis approved approval voting, *&* raising tax to fund childhood services
—St. Louis rejects allowing police to not live in city
1️⃣1️⃣ Alaska:
—Approved new electoral system ("Top 4", mixed with ranked-choice voting)
—GOP keeps U.S. Senate, U.S. House seat
—Narrowest GOP presidential win since 1992
—Uncertain if GOP controls trifecta (Dems/GOP dissidents won enough to keep their legislative coalition going)
1️⃣2️⃣ Washington D.C.
—Decriminalized (mostly) psilocybin mushrooms
—1st election since DC abolished felony disenfranchisement
—Council moves left (but the more progr. lost at-large race)

1️⃣3️⃣ Virginia
—Approves redistricting reform
—Richmond mayor wins
—No flip in US House races
1️⃣4️⃣ Maryland:
—Approved measure to strengthen legislature
—Legalized sports betting
—School board candidates that want to get police out of schools do well in Prince George's Co.
—Baltimore approved weakening mayoral power
—Baltimore approved affordable housing, schools, bonds
1️⃣5️⃣ Montana:
—Marijuana legalization wins
—GOP wins U.S. Senate & U.S. House races
—GOP flipped open Governor's race. First wince since 2000. And it's Gianforte.
—GOP grows in legislature. Also wins SoS & AG races.
—GOP seizes trifecta
—Measure to preempt local gun control wins
1️⃣6️⃣ Kansas:
—GOP wins U.S. Senate race. Dems haven't won since 1932.
—GOP defends #KS02, and Dems defend #KS03
—GOP keeps its legislative supermajorities
—GOP keeps Shawnee DA office over reform candidate
1️⃣7️⃣ New Hampshire
—Dems win big in federal races: WH, US Senate, US House
—GOP wins big in state races: keep Gov., flip House & Senate, seize trifecta

1️⃣8️⃣ Connecticut:
—Dems expand legislative majorities, maybe easing path for stalled reforms
—Dems keep all federal offices
1️⃣9️⃣ Vermont
—GOP governor re-elected
—Dems/progressive lose their supermajority in state House
—Criminal justice reformers win elections for high bailiff
—Dems win AG, SoS, LG, Treasurer races
—Biggest shift against the GOP in the presidential race of all states
2️⃣0️⃣ Washington
—Approves mandatory sex ed
—Gov. Inslee wins
—as do Justices he named
—as does GOP SoS
—as does the school superintendent targeted over sex ed
—The more moderates win all-D runoffs for LG & WA10
—No net change in legislature; Tarra Simmons wins
—No federal change
2️⃣1️⃣ Ohio
—Dems flip Supreme Court seat. GOP keeps 2nd, & majority
—Trump easily
—Reformer wins Cincinnati sheriff
—Cincinnati prosecutor beats reformer
—Columbus prosecutor protested over policing loses
—Columbus sets up police oversight board
—No change in U.S. House races
2️⃣2️⃣ Mississippi:
—Legalizes medical marijuana
—Approves new state flag
—GOP wins Senate, Supreme Court races

2️⃣3️⃣ Arkansas:
—Rejected initiative to make progressive initiatives harder
—Renewed sales tax for transportation
—GOPer who targeted challenger for being black wins AR-2
2️⃣4️⃣ Michigan
—Biden flips it.
—Dems flip state Supreme Court (gain one Justice)
—Dems kept U.S. Senate seat. No House change.
—GOP defends state House
—Reformer wins Oakland & Washtenaw prosecutor
—GOP sheriff reelected in Oakland
—Approve requiring warrants for electronic data
2️⃣5️⃣ Utah
—GOP flips UT-04
—Voters approve removing constitutional allowance of slavery as a punishment
—Dems keep mayor of Salt Lake Co.
—GOP keeps Gov, AG
—Trump gained

2️⃣6️⃣ Indiana
—GOP wins IN-05
—GOP wins Gov & AG races
—GOP net seats in state House (but Dems +1 in Senate)
2️⃣7️⃣ Wisconsin
—Biden wins presidential race: tipping-point state
— Dem gains in Assembly; GOP gains in Senate
—GOP fails to win supermajorities in either gerrymandered chamber

2️⃣8️⃣ New Jersey
—Legalized marijuana (easily)
—No flips in US House, incl. Dem NJ7 & Van Drew's NJ2
2️⃣9️⃣ Maine
—Susan Collins wins re-election, big Senate win for GOP
#ME02: goes for Trump, & for the Dem House incumbent
—Portland, ME, voted for higher minimum wage, new housing protections, ban on facial recognition tech
—Dems defend state Senate & House, keep their trifecta
3️⃣0️⃣ Kentucky:
—Mitch McConnell re-elected
—Very large GOP gains in legislature
—Conservative wins Supreme Court race
—Voters adopt Marsy's Law
—Voters reject doubling prosecutors' terms

3️⃣1️⃣ Alabama:
—Sen. Doug Jones loses
—Voters approve "citizens only" voting measure
3️⃣2️⃣ Puerto Rico:
—Approves statehood measure
—PNP's Pierluisi wins Gov.

3️⃣3️⃣ Wyoming:
—In legislature, far-right surge in GOP primaries, and then Dem losses in Nov
—Voters rejects lifting debt ceiling for some local projects
3️⃣4️⃣ Arizona
—Biden flipped it
—Dems now hold both US Senate seats
—Easily legalized marijuana
—Raised tax on higher incomes for public education
—GOP kept legislature, trifecta
—Arpaio's ex-deputy lost vs. Maricopa's Dem sheriff
—But GOP won DA, recorder, board races in Maricopa
3️⃣5️⃣ Massachusetts:
—Rejected ranked choice voting
—Dems flip Norfolk Co. sheriff's race, a dress rehearsal for 2022

3️⃣6️⃣ Hawaii:
—More centrist candidate wins Honolulu Mayor
—For Honolulu prosecutor, more reform-minded of 2 runoff candidates wins
—Kai Kahele headed to DC
3️⃣7️⃣ Rhode Island:
—Removed 'plantation' from state name
—Legislature remains overwhelmingly Dem, with shifts:
—Wave of progressive wins over incumbents in primaries (they won in Nov. too)
—Centrist (Dem) Speaker ousted by GOP, upends chamber
3️⃣8️⃣ Nebraska:
—Bidens flipped Omaha's electoral vote
—GOP defended #NE02
—GOP fell short of legislative supermajority
—Voters removed constitutional allowance of slavery as a punishment
—Voters capped payday lending interests
3️⃣9️⃣ New Mexico
—GOP flips NM-02
—Dem defend open U.S. Senate seat
—Legislature shifts left (after prog. gains in Senate primaries)

4️⃣0️⃣ Delaware
—Progressives gained in Dem primaries (& won in Nov.)
—Dems expanded legislative majorities in Nov.
4️⃣1️⃣ Texas
—GOP kept House (no losses) & trifecta
—GOP keeps all its congressional seats
—Win for left for Travis Co. DA
—Austin approves transit $
—GOP sweeps SC, Railroad Comm. Dems narrow BofEd.
—Nueces Dem DA wins.
—Tarrant GOP sheriff wins. Fort Bend & Williamson's flip Dem.
4️⃣2️⃣ West Virginia:
—Really huge GOP gains in legislature (+18 in House)
—GOP sweeps statewide races, incl. Gov., AG, SoS
—GOP winning Treasurer ousts rare statewide Dem

4️⃣3️⃣ Tennessee
—New GOP U.S. Senator
—An ex-Dem lawmaker who'd sided with GOP on key bills loses to a Dem
4️⃣4️⃣ Nevada
—Voters easily repealed old ban on same-sex marriage
—And made pardons easier
—Dems defended U.S. House seats
—Biden wins, with days of national 👀
—Dems keep legislature (not supermajority), & their trifecta
—Public defenders win judicial races in Clark/Las Vegas
4️⃣5️⃣ Pennsylvania:
—Biden flipped it
—No flips in U.S. House despite plenty of attention.
—GOP keeps state House. (Progressives gain in Dem primaries.)
—Philly, Pittsburgh approved setting up or strengthening civilian oversight boards
—Dems win AG, & GOP wins Treasurer/Auditor.
4️⃣6️⃣ Illinois
—Rejected making income tax progressive
—No federal flips
—Newman heads to DC instead of Lipinski
—Kim Foxx reelected. Dems flip Lake prosecutor. Reformer falls short in DeKalb.
—A Justice *not* retained, sets up big 2022 battle
—Dems have trifecta. Madigan's fate?
4️⃣7️⃣ Iowa:
—Joni Ernst wins, in big GOP Senate victory
—GOP expand their narrow majority in state House
—GOP also defends state Senate, & trifecta
—Trump wins easily
—GOP flip at least 1 U.S. House seat. A 2nd in recount.
(At least that caucus is behind us.)
4️⃣8️⃣ Louisiana:
—Adopts anti-abortion referendum
—No flips in federal offices, in PSC races.
—Two public defenders win judicial races in New Orleans
—Rejected pair of amendments to constrain spending, affect revenue streams
—HEADS TO RUNOFF: DA race in New Orleans; reform stakes
4️⃣9️⃣ North Carolina:
—GOP wins Senate race, huge national stakes
—Dems win Gov race, keep veto power
—Dems flip 2 U.S. House seats (via new map)
—GOP keeps legislature, also Treasurer, LG.
—Dems keep AG, SoS, Auditor
—GOP flips at least 1 Supreme Court seat. May be 2; in recount.
5️⃣0️⃣ California (federal & statewide stakes):
—Voters expand voting rights
—Uber/Lyft/+ win anti-labor prop
—No to: aff. action, rent control, rolling back tax limits
—No to: rolling back sentencing reform
—GOP flip CA39/48. (CA21/25 still TBD).
—Dems grow further in state Senate
5️⃣0️⃣ California (local)
—Gascón wins LA's DA race on reform. Also LA: measure J.
—San Diego: yes to police review, Dems flip mayor & board
—Left wins in LA & Sacramento councils
—SF ends minimum police, ends citizens-only boards
—Oakland lowers voting age
—Transit win in Bay Area
5️⃣1️⃣ Georgia
—Biden wins
—Cobb/Gwinnett: Dems flip sheriff's races (& a lot more); ICE key issue.
—Dems flip GA-07
—GOP keeps legislature
—DA who didn't act after Arbery's murder ousted

—Runoffs! both U.S. Senate seats
—Also runoffs! PSC (key for climate, utilities), Athens DA
5️⃣2️⃣ New York
—Dems gain Senate supermajority (had Assembly's), beat back police unions attacks
—GOP flips NY11, keep NY24. NY22 TBD.
—WFP keeps its line
—Rocah wins Westchester DA
—Big left gains for Congress & legislature in primaries
—Trump’s NY boasting went nowhere

The end!
Thus this thread comes to an end!

As Biden prepares transition, don’t lose sight of the hundreds of other offices and sites of power decided this month — and what they’ll mean for 2/4 years ahead.

And let me know ↓ if I left out stuff I left out that you care about!

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More from @Taniel

Nov 4
these are getting underplayed this year, but the rules of democracy are *directly* on the ballot in many places

here, quickly, is my top 5 referendums on that
1️⃣ Arizona organizers worked hard to put an abortion rights measure on November's ballot.

But the GOP made its move too: They've put a separate referendum on the ballot.

It'd basically shut the door on future ballot initiatives in Arizona. boltsmag.org/arizona-ballot…
2️⃣ Connecticut, somehow, still requires an excuse for people to vote absentee.

A ballot measure this November will open the door to finally allowing everyone to vote by mail.

And this'll be particularly major for people with disabilities:

boltsmag.org/connecticut-ba…
Read 7 tweets
Nov 3
Abortion is big in the presidential race, of course, & there are many referendums on it.

But there's more: there are many races that are too overlooked where abortion rights is a key issue, for downballot offices that really matter to abortion policy.

My thread of the top 5: ⬇️
1️⃣ I have to start with Arizona's judicial elections.

Two things simultaneously:
1. Two of the 4 justices who voted to revive a near-total abortion ban this spring are up for retention.
2. GOP has advanced a measure to nullify these judicial elections. boltsmag.org/proposition-13…
2️⃣ DeSantis removed Tampa's elected prosecutor from office, citing in part the prosecutor's decision to sign a letter saying he wouldn't prosecute abortion. cases. (DeSantis has signed strict restrictions.)

That prosecutor is now running for his job back: boltsmag.org/hillsborough-c…
Read 8 tweets
Nov 2
Here's the final Ann Selzer/DMR poll of Iowa:

Harris is up 47% to 44%. 
(Not a typo. Last DMR poll had Trump up 47/43 in September.)
In 2016 & 2020, Selzer’s final poll looked like an outlier in opposite direction; days after, we learned it was actually not off, & had foreshadowed polling error in Rust Belt.

This, again, is just one poll; we’ll see soon enough whether it captured something no one else did.
Other details in poll:
—Poll was this Monday through Thursday.
—Margin is within MoE of 3.4%, of course (though this is a looooot more off from expectations).
—Harris up 28% among independent women, though Trump up among men.
—RFK at 3%

Link to the poll: desmoinesregister.com/story/news/pol…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 2
Here's what I'd say about why people care about the Selzer poll, besides the mythologizing. In final days of both 2016 & 2020, as polling had Dems in strong shape (well, esp. in 2020), it was the rare sign that something could be amiss in other polling. (1/3)
Extent to which Rust Belt white voters swung to Trump was just not understood before we saw results in 2016, tho Selzer gave a preview. (She also was first to capture IA changed in 2014.) There was this idea in 2020 that had swung back; her poll was clearest cold shower.
But of course: IT'S JUST ONE POLL! It's subject to the same margin of error, can be off in any direction, and in the moment it wasn't clear what they meant.

Same today: IT'S JUST ONE POLL.

But that gets to other thing about Selzer poll: it's clearly uninterested in herding.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 25
I think Arizona's elections may be the single most important rn — even putting aside the presidential election.

The amount of items on the ballot that could transform state politics, upend the election systems, as well as criminal justice and courts, is remarkable. Here's why.
Let's start with: Democrats have a chance to take control of the state government by flipping two seats each in the Senate & the House. That'd be the first time they do that since *1966*.

If you've followed MI and MN politics recently, you know a new trifecta can get very busy.
Despite GOP control of the legislature, progressives have managed to pass reforms like minimum wage through ballot measures.

But Republicans have put a ballot measure on the ballot... that would squash future ballot measures. boltsmag.org/arizona-ballot…
Read 14 tweets
Oct 14
Politico releases a memo of *internal GOP polling* for a chief Senate SuperPAC conducted in October.

It has some interesting trendlines & results for both pres & Senate. (May have not been intentional release?) …

Walking thru some highlights:politico.com/news/2024/10/1…
—Arizona:
Pres race tied 47/47 in Oct (Trump led in Sept.)
Gallego up 47/42.

—Maryland:
This GOP poll has Hogan now *down* 48/41, after leading 49/41 in September.

—Michigan:
Harris up 45/42, and Slotkin up 46/38.
(In both cases, Dems better than two September polls.)
—Montana: Memo says Sheehy has led in their last four internal polls, between 2% and 5%. October poll 48/44.

—Nevada: Pres race tied, & Rosen up 43/36 (that's a lot of undecided), both same as Sept.

—Ohio: Brown leads 45/39 in October. Trump 47/43. Again, lots of undecided.
Read 10 tweets

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