Not to mention, during their second lockdown, daily cases were being cut in half about every 12 days.

Got double the daily cases? Add ~2 more weeks to their containment timeline.

(Speaking fairly roughly here, but you get the idea)
Their first wave was crushed at an even faster rate than their second, eyeballing it from daily cases. Image
Might as well note here than the timeline for containment is significantly accelerated with a green zone strategy.

Reducing the region-to-region reproductive number has massive benefits.

nature.com/articles/s4200… Image
One way to think about this is to consider an extreme (a very common strategy in physics/math/etc).

Imagine if everyone just went camping for to weeks and had no interactions with others. What is the timeline for containment there?
During the first "wave", NZ had a very similar exponential decay of cases to AUS. Image

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More from @VanGennepD

20 Nov
A quick note on the asymptomatic rate for Covid-19:

There is a bogus claim going around that basically says the vast majority of infections remain asymptomatic.

They usually cite this one random Chinese dataset with little-to-no information.
This is used for a few main purposes:

1) To downplay the severity of COVID

"You'll be fine! Most people don't even show symptoms!"
2) To suggest an insanely low IFR

"We miss most of the infections because they are asymptomatic!"
Read 10 tweets
17 Nov
I understand and agree with many of these points, but I don't think the timeline of 3-5 months is realistic.

With a green zone strategy, many places don't have to do much at all before opening up and living like normal. That is, for them, the duration of lockdown is ~0.
Isaac lean towards getting cases low and keeping R~1.

1) If you can get cases low, you can get them to zero
2) If you can keep R~1, a bit more work gets you to containment
3) This state is highly unstable, as we've seen from dozens of countries.

I don't know if Canadian's will accept what is necessary for zero covid.

1) What makes us think they will accept what is needed to get cases low and then maintain R~1?
2) The probability of Canadians accepting zero covid is dynamic. People are tired of yo-yo lockdowns.
Read 6 tweets

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