A quick note on the asymptomatic rate for Covid-19:
There is a bogus claim going around that basically says the vast majority of infections remain asymptomatic.
They usually cite this one random Chinese dataset with little-to-no information.
There is a bogus claim going around that basically says the vast majority of infections remain asymptomatic.
They usually cite this one random Chinese dataset with little-to-no information.
This is used for a few main purposes:
1) To downplay the severity of COVID
"You'll be fine! Most people don't even show symptoms!"
1) To downplay the severity of COVID
"You'll be fine! Most people don't even show symptoms!"
2) To suggest an insanely low IFR
"We miss most of the infections because they are asymptomatic!"
"We miss most of the infections because they are asymptomatic!"
3) To suggest herd immunity is either here or very close
4) To suggest that we don't have to contain the virus
4a) Because it is already too late and Covid is almost over
4b) Because the infections are much more widespread and would therefore be impossible to contain
4) To suggest that we don't have to contain the virus
4a) Because it is already too late and Covid is almost over
4b) Because the infections are much more widespread and would therefore be impossible to contain
To the best of my knowledge, there are two meta-analyses that address this.
Here is one that looked at 50155 patients from 41 studies and found:
"The pooled percentage of asymptomatic infection is 15.6% (95% CI, 10.1%‐23.0%). "
doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26…
Here is one that looked at 50155 patients from 41 studies and found:
"The pooled percentage of asymptomatic infection is 15.6% (95% CI, 10.1%‐23.0%). "
doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26…
Here is another meta-analysis that looked at 94 studies.
"The overall estimate of the proportion of people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and remain asymptomatic throughout infection was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 17–25)"
doi.org/10.1371/journa…
"The overall estimate of the proportion of people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and remain asymptomatic throughout infection was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 17–25)"
doi.org/10.1371/journa…
Added bonus:
"The pooled proportion of asymptomatic infection among 1152 COVID‐19 children from 11 studies is 27.7% (95% CI, 16.4%‐42.7%), which is much higher than patients from all aged groups."
(I'm guessing children are <= 18 y/o, but not sure)
doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26…
"The pooled proportion of asymptomatic infection among 1152 COVID‐19 children from 11 studies is 27.7% (95% CI, 16.4%‐42.7%), which is much higher than patients from all aged groups."
(I'm guessing children are <= 18 y/o, but not sure)
doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26…
A note:
Often, people say that the majority of cases are either "mild or asymptomatic"
What they mean by "mild" usually isn't clear. Sometimes it just means anything between showing no symptoms and requiring hospitalization.
Often, people say that the majority of cases are either "mild or asymptomatic"
What they mean by "mild" usually isn't clear. Sometimes it just means anything between showing no symptoms and requiring hospitalization.
A few more studies which sort of hint toward high asymptomatic rates, but have clear issues about why they should not be used to determine asymptomatic rates:
In each thread, I describe the issues.
https://twitter.com/sudha_lakshmi/status/1329672439366750210?s=20
https://twitter.com/sudha_lakshmi/status/1329673538169520128?s=20
https://twitter.com/sudha_lakshmi/status/1329677993111797766?s=20
In each thread, I describe the issues.
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