Thread by @danielmarans

New: I looked at the ways that Republicans' "defund the police" attacks hurt Democrats and tried to treat the issue of whether it matters and who is to blame for that exactly with some nuance: huffpost.com/entry/republic…

Key figures on the "defund the police" attacks, via @Kantar:

Trump and allied groups used the attack in ads that aired 77,647 times; congressional Rs, allies used it 103,000 times.

Biden did not directly rebut it on TV; congressional Ds did in ads that aired 22,000 times.

I also looked at how many top left-wing pols and organizations embraced the slogan and the room it gave Rs to use guilt by association.

For example, GOP used NextGen's stance to blast Sara Gideon.

A political faux pas by stakeholders, or just testament to GOP ruthlessness?

.@EmilySkopovPA's case in the Pa. state House is an interesting one.

Her opponents seized on her signature on @FutureNowUSA's policy pledge, which doesn't reference "defund."

But Future Now has a model bill examining whether to transfer resources from cops to other services.

It's not hard to see why Rs seized on "defund the police." As @aedwardslevy and @Robillard reported in June, it polls very poorly. huffpost.com/entry/defund-p…

“We used ‘defund the police’ everywhere in everything we did,” @markdharris. “That sort of stuff is toxic in the suburbs.”

And plenty of Democrats, such as @NevinsMark and @dannybarefoot, wonder why it was necessary to take police reform, which is popular, and slip a toxic cover on it, especially when the slogan's meaning is unclear.

Progressives have plenty of valid arguments in response:
--That every racial justice message is polarizing at first and the spread of this one reflects its success
--That activists don't and shouldn't take orders from a party that depends on them as much as the inverse

“The movement for Black lives was and is doing its job by articulating ‘defund the police.' It’s one of the reasons that we’re talking about it right now, because of how sharp a demand it is,” @MauriceWFP ...

... @MauriceWFP: “When you hear moderate Democrats pin their losses on ‘defund’ or the movement for Black lives … it shows how little they care about police violence actually and how little they care about Black death."

“Black and brown people are daring to demand ― so vocally ― liberation, safety, protection and equity,” @SummerForPA. “It becomes very easy to shift the blame instead of doing the introspection about the things that lead up to this.”

There also plenty of unrelated factors that appear to have hurt Democrats:
--Lack of a clear economic message
--Tactical mistakes, such as lack of canvassing

There's also not necessarily a *clear* pattern to show that an individual candidate's comments, positions or decision to rebut the charge in ads was enough to make the difference ...

The two Democrats who rebutted the charge the most on TV were Jon Ossoff and Steve Bullock.

Ossoff made the runoff; Bullock lost but outperformed Biden by 6 points.

mycmag.kantarmediana.com/KMIcmagvidbin2…

mycmag.kantarmediana.com/KMIcmagvidbin2…

By contrast, take the cases of Dr. Cameron Webb of Va. and Rep. Max Rose of New York.

Webb said something implying support for "defund;" Rose did the opposite.

They both got pegged for it, rebutted it in ads, and still lost.

mycmag.kantarmediana.com/KMIcmagvidbin2…

Rose's spokesperson @Jonas_EJ noted that Republicans didn't bother attacking them over Rose's voting record, such as his vote for the Justice in Policing Act. So the advent of the slogan mattered.

Would the absence of the slogan have spared Rose though? "I don’t know.”

Final bit of analysis: The activist left may be a victim of its own success/notoriety in the national media.

A Dem consultant, whose quotes didn't make the cut, told me Dem candidates poll AOC's name and she is as well known and polarizing as Pelosi now ...

... That's consistent with Gallup polling showing a remarkable rise in AOC's name ID in her first year in Congress. That brought growing favorability, but even greater disapproval: news.gallup.com/poll/247820/re…

That polling is a feature of what @davidshor has described as a media environment where certain causes that dominate news coverage, as well as politicians with sky-high name ID, can shape perceptions of every member of their party. politico.com/news/magazine/…

In the case of AOC -- and other left-wing politicians and activists -- national notoriety has been mostly involuntary -- due to wall-to-wall Fox News coverage etc.

But there are still some Democrats who believe left-wing politicians and activists should at least be aware of how their rhetoric can affect candidates in tough races.

“It is not for me to tell Black people or people of color how to protest ... But what I can tell them is the consequences it will have for someone like me. And then it’s up to them whether or not they care to accommodate that,” @EmilySkopovPA.