Market crashes, when almost no one is expecting it to crash.

Right now, 30% guys I speak to, are expecting a sharp correction.

So at best it will consolidate here or time wise correction. Crash won't happen.

So side ways movement for next 2 months?
Another way a sharp correction can happen is event driven Like lehman / ILFS collapse

That, imho can happen any day in India or globally.

So many bankruptcies are being filed, it will have cascading impact on financial sector.
Just a thought, LEHMAN collapse happened in September 2008 and NIFTY took nose dive from 4400 to 2200, a 50% correction in 50 days. Less than two months. Made a low in Nov 2008.
Also, last time FED started lowering interest rates in Sept 2007, and Lehman collapsed one year later.

So two things

1. FED money can jack up equity markets but can't prevent eventual global meltdown. It's a matter of time

2. These collapses take their own time and prediction
Of exact month is difficult.

For traders, 2007-2009 was one of the best period. Just follow the price trend.

For buy only investors, it's going to be very challenging.

Value boys will lose their pants, just like last time as it's very challenging to get valuation right in such

For momentum guys, only Bravehearts will survive as your backtest will show you, BUY only momentum strategies give you much sharper correction as compared to NIFTY or buy and hold.

So when eventually nifty corrects 50%, BUY only momentum will correct 60-70%.
If u are investor, and made decent gains it's not such a bad idea to book some profits now and sit on 30% cash.

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More from @AnandableAnand

21 Nov
As for someone who was not allowed to trade/invest in equities (because of job n insider trading laws etc)

I found many great insights in MW book, abt non equity trading

Here is 5

1. Dennis Richard, whom I consider my guru for 2 insights

A. trading has to be rule based
B. Turtle trading experiment, anyone can be excellent trader, if rules r followed with reasonable discipline

2. William Eckhardt

Backtesting insights like degree of freedom, curve fitting n pitfalls of BT

3. Paul Tudor Jones

Greatest trader alive who is still trading,
Predicted black monday n made insane money on single day

His below video is a must watch

4. Jim Rogers

He showed that commodities forex n bonds are the place to be

His books (esp hot commodities) is a must read
Read 6 tweets
7 Nov
Popular advice, don't watch TV

My take,

Obviously if u are algo or systems guy, u should not watch TV or even your fluctuating MTM on screen

For everyone else, TV is the biggest free tool u can use for your trading.

Obviously trading calls/advice is useless but that's just
1% of TV.

what about rest of it?

How many of us know about LTRO or OMO?

Watch TV everyday esp events like RBI policy and within few months all terms will start making sense to u.

Oh u don't need these terms for ur banknifty straddle. Is it?

Sooner u realize that every thing
Is interconnected, better off u will be as a discretionary trader.

Entire giant financial machine is interconnected with butterfly effect

In every dealing room /treasury /fund house there are many TVs visible to all dealers.

Many of the CFOs in corporate world have TV
Read 10 tweets
14 Oct

Why did Chanra-swami suddenly stopped helping Harshad?
Also cornered him by freezing his accounts, assets, both brothers in jail, 72 CBI cases and 2000 Cr notice against his wife?

A thread into history 1991

Rajiv Gandhi assassinated suddenly in election campeign
Narsimha Rao was brought back from retirement to head a trusted minority Govt of Congress

Other trusted guys are MMS (Finance minister) and Chidambaram (Commerce minister)

Rao's right hand man was Chandra-swami (or other way around)

On becoming PM, Rao stopped visiting Sonia
and wanted to break free of Gandhi family. But it was weak minority Govt so he had to take everyone along

Here in mumbai, Harshad was doubling money every month and all businessmen and politicians were after him to double their money

Politicians also included Rao and many
Read 12 tweets
13 Oct

Will try to update it daily going forward.

I know, lot of questions, FAQ in next tweet in this thread Image

1. Bro why suddenly sharing? are you selling webinar, trying to fleece me

A: not selling anything, please keep your money in your central pocket. Though, I would loved to be trolled by you

Sharing as I am loving this like/retweet follower game atm
2. Bro dont be B##ch, tell me the strategy:

A: i am open to sharing all my strategies, but his is someone else's work so i cant share this one. However if you follow daily its easiest strategy to follow crack. Good luck

3. Whats CALMAR and MADCOW of this bro
Read 9 tweets

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