Here is the official data: cases began to drop before the effects of lockdown appear in the data, which official advisers told MPs would be this weekend:
1. A lack of public review: models often contain internally inconsistent and non-replicable numbers.
2. Poor characterisation of statistical uncertainty: uncertainty bounds are either not reported at all or have extremely wide ranges.
3. Non-existent or circular model validation: some scientists have argued that few healthcare models can ever be validated against reality, yet they should still be used to make decisions. Research papers can pre-suppose their own conclusions.
Lord Sumption: "SAGE is working on a case fatality rate of 0.7%. So 4,000 deaths per day equates to about 4 million new cases per week. These are Noddyland numbers. They are designed to frighten, not to inform"
@BucksCouncil 2 / I am delighted @BucksCouncil have implemented a ‘Helping Hand’ scheme, using £110,000 given for this purpose by the Government.
@BucksCouncil 3 / This bespoke, community-led scheme has focused on those who need help locally, directly seeking to help parents who might struggle during these unprecedented times.
For people trying to understand what the row is this week over coronavirus law, please see the attached summary of procedure for delegated legislation, here:
The problem is that the Government has been over-using the "rare" made affirmative procedure.
"Most SIs subject to the affirmative procedure are laid in the form of a draft SI. They are considered by the Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments (JCSI)." ...
"The role of this committee is to scrutinise the SI to ensure it is legal and *does not go beyond the powers specified in the parent Act*." [emphasis mine]
The Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 is subject to JR, now at appeal:
"We need a system which meets the joint ambitions of the Government and Parliament for prompt and effective action, with few opportunities for mischief and yet prior parliamentary approval before liberties are taken away."
"To get our economy back on track, we need global leadership in great economic governance through Prosperity Zones like the City of London Corporation or the Dubai International Financial Zone."