Government scientists briefing MPs were clear this week that the effects of lockdown would not be visible in the data until this weekend @MrHarryCole

That is, cases may have flattened _since_ lockdown but any change is not yet _because of_ lockdown. Official.
Here is the official data: cases began to drop before the effects of lockdown appear in the data, which official advisers told MPs would be this weekend:

There is no excuse for a minister creating the impression this change was caused by lockdown.
Cases in Manchester, Liverpool, York, Newcastle upon Tyne.

This cannot have been caused by national lockdown.

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More from @SteveBakerHW

4 Nov
This past weekend, we saw modelling for coronavirus fatalities challenged and dismantled as using outdated data.

There are fundamental methodological issues with epidemiological modelling. I am today releasing a report on them by Mike Hearn.
These issues include:

1. A lack of public review: models often contain internally inconsistent and non-replicable numbers.

2. Poor characterisation of statistical uncertainty: uncertainty bounds are either not reported at all​ or have extremely wide ranges.
3. Non-existent or circular model validation: some scientists have argued that few healthcare models can ever be validated against reality, yet they should still be used to make decisions. Research papers can pre-suppose their own conclusions.
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov
This morning I chaired a Zoom briefing with MPs, @drraghibali, @timspector, @rwjdingwall, @emmakennytv and Lord Sumption.

We discussed a strategy for living with Covid, @T4Recovery Five Reasonable Demands and the impact of the current restrictions.

Thread of remarks to follow:
@drraghibali @timspector @rwjdingwall @emmakennytv @T4Recovery @emmakennytv: "Human beings are not meant to be isolated, in fact you are less likely to die if you smoke 15 cigarettes a day, than you are if you are lonely. Loneliness kills"

Read Emma's full remarks:…
Lord Sumption: "SAGE is working on a case fatality rate of 0.7%. So 4,000 deaths per day equates to about 4 million new cases per week. These are Noddyland numbers. They are designed to frighten, not to inform"

Read Lord Sumption's full remarks:…
Read 8 tweets
30 Oct
Over this Autumn half term, @BucksCouncil’s #HelpingHand scheme is on offer to ensure children in Bucks do not go hungry.

If anyone is worried, and not sure what help is available, you can contact their ‘Helping Hand’ support line on 01296 395000.
@BucksCouncil 2 / I am delighted @BucksCouncil have implemented a ‘Helping Hand’ scheme, using £110,000 given for this purpose by the Government.
@BucksCouncil 3 / This bespoke, community-led scheme has focused on those who need help locally, directly seeking to help parents who might struggle during these unprecedented times.
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
For people trying to understand what the row is this week over coronavirus law, please see the attached summary of procedure for delegated legislation, here:…

The problem is that the Government has been over-using the "rare" made affirmative procedure.
"Most SIs subject to the affirmative procedure are laid in the form of a draft SI. They are considered by the Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments (JCSI)." ...
"The role of this committee is to scrutinise the SI to ensure it is legal and *does not go beyond the powers specified in the parent Act*." [emphasis mine]

The Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 is subject to JR, now at appeal:…
Read 5 tweets
26 Sep
Parliament must take back control of Covid laws

The consequences of taking away liberty to protect public health have been devastating to our society and economy

Me for ⁦@Telegraph⁩ 👇✊…
"We need a system which meets the joint ambitions of the Government and Parliament for prompt and effective action, with few opportunities for mischief and yet prior parliamentary approval before liberties are taken away."
"To get our economy back on track, we need global leadership in great economic governance through Prosperity Zones like the City of London Corporation or the Dubai International Financial Zone."
Read 8 tweets

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