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20 Nov, 3 tweets, 1 min read
News: McConnell-aligned super PACs Senate Leadership Fund and American Crossroads making $70 million combined ad buy for Georgia runoffs (on top of $9m in ads on air this week). Largest investment so far, runs through 1/5/21
With the new investment from SLF/Crossroads, the runoffs are already above $200 million in ad spending/reservations.

When all said and done, these races might both end up as among the most expensive of all time just in what is spent between 11/4 and 1/5.
politico.com/news/2020/11/2…

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More from @JamesArkin

James Arkin Profile picture
3 Oct
Tillis, who is up for reelection, held a debate with Democrat Cal Cunningham last night prior to receiving this positive test result
Cunningham on the news that Sen. Tillis has tested positive for Covid-19

Tillis' campaign manager says in a statement that they notified Cunningham and Spectrum (who hosted debate) after positive test results.

Shutting down campaign hq and halting in person events. Staffers quarantining and getting tests
Read 5 tweets
James Arkin Profile picture
19 Sep
Des Moines Register Poll:

Greenfield 45
Ernst 42

(Largely unchanged from June, when it was Greenfield 46, Ernst 43)

desmoinesregister.com/story/news/pol…
Ernst Image is even, 44/44 on favorability.

Greenfield slightly above water, 40/36. But 24% don't know her, lot of room for definition in closing weeks.
Greenfield's slim advantage is behind big lead with independent voters (47-32) and women voters (53-33).

Greenfield also pulling 10% of those who say they voted Trump in 2016, compared to 2% of Clinton voters for Ernst. Something to watch, whether electorate polarizes more
Read 4 tweets
James Arkin Profile picture
16 Sep
Quinnipiac Senate polls:

MAINE
Gideon 54
Collins 42

SC
Graham 48
Harrison 48

KENTUCKY
McConnell 53
McGrath 41

poll.qu.edu/south-carolina…
I will note that this Maine poll is obviously the biggest margin we've seen yet. RCP average had Gideon +4.5.
In August, Q polls had Gideon +4 (47/43), Graham and Harrison tied (44/44) and McConnell +5 (49/44). So big shifts everywhere
Read 4 tweets
James Arkin Profile picture
5 Aug
Both candidates have continued to do in person events in the lead up to tomorrow's primary. AP reports that there was covid exposure at a GOP event last week.
Sethi says he will get tested after potential exposure from an event where an attendee has tested positive for covid.

Hagerty has gotten tested as well

https://t.co/hWO2BiuUfS
Read 4 tweets
James Arkin Profile picture
24 Jul
Martha McSally narrowly outraised Mark Kelly in the first 15 days of this month, per their pre-primary reports. Kelly raised nearly $2.1 million, per report below. McSally raised nearly $2.2 million per previous tweet (total difference of about $79k)
McSally's report details here:
Kelly continues to have a major cash advantage in the race. $21.2 million compared to nearly $11 million for McSally
Read 4 tweets
James Arkin Profile picture
22 Jul
NEW: Cory Gardner says an NRSC ad that went up last week attacking HIckenlooper should be pulled off air after he had a conversation with survivor of a 2017 home explosion, who called the ad "horrifying" and said it should be taken down.

politico.com/news/2020/07/2…
The ad, which attacks Hickenlooper over the home explosion in the state in 2017, was condemned last week by Erin Martinez, who lost her husband and brother in the explosion and called the ad "horrifying"
Gardner's statement:
"I spoke to Erin Martinez today and expressed to her that I would not have personally run the ad and I hope the ad comes down. If I had the power to take down the ad I would."

The ad is run by NRSC IE, which cannot coordinate with campaigns.
Read 4 tweets

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