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21 Nov, 5 tweets, 19 min read
@BorisJohnson @MattHancock @uksciencechief @CMO_England @PHE_uk @NHSEnglandNMD @ONS @michaelgove @talkRADIO @BBCNews @SkyNews @itvnews @Channel4News @BreesAnna @SueC00K @MichaelYeadon3 @ClareCraigPath Assume 1% False Pos on PCR. Assume 300'000 PCR tests per day. Thats 3000 False pos per day or 21'000 a week. Test and Trace reach c60%. Let's say 50% of contacts of those 21000 a week are told to isolate. Even based in 1 contact per False pos = 10'000 a week.
@BorisJohnson @MattHancock @uksciencechief @CMO_England @PHE_uk @NHSEnglandNMD @ONS @michaelgove @talkRADIO @BBCNews @SkyNews @itvnews @Channel4News @BreesAnna @SueC00K @MichaelYeadon3 @ClareCraigPath So, 31000 people per week are isolating for no reason. Over a month thats 125'000 people being told to self isolate based on false positives created by the PCR test.
Population of Cambridge, Sevenoaks, Winchester and Newcastle Under Lyme for example.
@BorisJohnson @MattHancock @uksciencechief @CMO_England @PHE_uk @NHSEnglandNMD @ONS @michaelgove @talkRADIO @BBCNews @SkyNews @itvnews @Channel4News @BreesAnna @SueC00K @MichaelYeadon3 @ClareCraigPath If the above is the case then thats not an acceptable situation. Things need to change. How long has PCR testing at scale been running? 4 months? That's the total population on Wiltshire, or County Durham or Manchester or Liverpool told to isolate due to PCR False positives.
@BorisJohnson @MattHancock @uksciencechief @CMO_England @PHE_uk @NHSEnglandNMD @ONS @michaelgove @talkRADIO @BBCNews @SkyNews @itvnews @Channel4News @BreesAnna @SueC00K @MichaelYeadon3 @ClareCraigPath Even excluding T&T contacts its still 21000 a week or 84000 a month of those who wrongly test positive with PCR. Gosport, Redditch & Daventry all have c85000 population.
Over 4 months??? 335000, or the population of Coventry, Bromley or Enfield unnecessarily isolating.

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More from @Cb46675698

19 Nov
@BorisJohnson @didoharding @MattHancock @uksciencechief @CMO_England @DailyMailUK @SkyNews @talkRADIO @BBCNews @itvnews
Its not a rebranding T&T needs and its certainly not more testing.
A whole new approach to testing and isolation is needed!
@BorisJohnson @didoharding @MattHancock @uksciencechief @CMO_England @DailyMailUK @SkyNews @talkRADIO @BBCNews @itvnews C19 is a respiratory virus. What proportion of asymptomatic people spread the virus?
More testing with LFR or PCR won't help if the tests are not reliable and pick dead cells, causing healthy people to isolate. That defeats the objective of test to unlock approach.
@BorisJohnson @didoharding @MattHancock @uksciencechief @CMO_England @DailyMailUK @SkyNews @talkRADIO @BBCNews @itvnews Large labs and private sector contracts are not the answer. Local tracing and local labs using Local Public Health and hospital departments are the answer as well as reliable tests that only pick up infectious people!!
Read 5 tweets

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