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21 Nov, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Two new studies today effectively destroying the gov’s response to C19.

✅Stringent measures have no correlation to outcome

✅No evidence of asymptomatic spread.

Banish the myths of lockdown effectiveness and “silent spread” and we are back to normal.
First, this study shows death rates were influenced by factors like geography and elderly population (life expectancy) but NOT by stringency of Gov imposed measures frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
Second, a study of 10M (!) folks post lockdown in China showed ZERO transmission from asymptomatic individuals.
The reason being, as so many of us “non experts” along with a handful of genuine experts have been saying for months, is that the so-called asympto folks were post-sympto and hence not infectious. The overly sensitive pcr test at mid 30s Ct is picking up garbage rna.
More on this from an actual expert.
Stop the madness. Is your “leader” bright enough or open-minded enough to understand any of this? If not, they are unqualified to make unconstitutional decisions ruining your life. We knew this months ago. They are just flailing now, reimposing measures that already didn’t work.

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More from @TTBikeFit

TNK Profile picture
14 Nov
Cov19 analysis for State of RI. RI was hit hard in the Spring like other nearby states. Are we setting up for round 2 or is something else happening? Read on. 1/x
First we look at testing. RI breaks out new tests and repeat tests. Note testing is up huge since Spring, but 75% of the tests are now retests. We can see the jump in retests coinciding with colleges and schools starting up. Presumably most of these retests are mandated screening
We are going to ignore “cases” as a metric because anyone paying attention knows that cases alone is useless. Test positivity rate though can be useful. Here we see that first time test positivity is up steeply while repeat test positivity is effectively nil.
Read 14 tweets
TNK Profile picture
13 Oct
Home with family and friends for the Holidays? Not if Task “Force” member Dr Birx has her way. Welcome to the “It’s time for Dr Birx to go” magnum opus.
“home with neighbors and friends may not be a safe place in specific communities.”

That’s one of the key messages of Dr Birx’s talk in Boston Friday. Birx has now officially gone completely “off the reservation” as she tours colleges and spreads a special kind of COVID crazy.
It will be clear when reading the low-lites of her talk that Birx has never left April.

Birx is a non-elected appointee who now feels she has the right to tell you to shun and be suspicious of friends and neighbors. You know what’s coming next: “stay away from your family.”
Read 46 tweets
TNK Profile picture
16 Aug
A new way to look at lockdown severity and its effects. We have all heard of the Oxford lockdown stringency index described here bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/resea… which uses 17 indicators to come up with a lockdown stringency score. What if we looked at cumulative stringency? 1/8
By cumulative stringency I mean the area under the stringency curve. I decided to look at the period from Feb 15 to June 30 2020 and sum the daily stringency scores. The max score for this 137 day period would be 13700 = 137 days * 100 max score. 2/8
As with my prior studies I looked at Western Europe. First the cumulative stringency scores, where Sweden is lowest. No surprise, but note Finland Iceland and even Norway score low. 3/8 Image
Read 10 tweets
TNK Profile picture
4 Aug
Imagine if our “leaders”, “experts” and a majority of the population were this rational. Written by a fund manager whom I will not cite unless he requests. 1/8
“Honestly, the policy response is not hard once you accept that (1) this is mitigation not suppression, (2) we have a clear understanding of who is vulnerable and who is not, and (3) 30-40% of the population will be infected (with disease break point at 15-20%)” 2/8
“...regardless of what we do.
If you are vulnerable (old, diabetes, obese, etc.) – take every precaution. Test frequently. Have pulse oximeters to detect if 02 levels are falling. Do all you can to minimize person-to-person contact – and to keep fit and healthy.” 3/8
Read 8 tweets
TNK Profile picture
31 Jul
More plots for your consideration, focusing on W. Europe. The first looks at Oxford lockdown stringency. Did it affect the maximum daily deaths/million? The maximum stringency certainly did not for these 18 countries. In fact there is a weak correlation in the wrong direction. 1/
Meaning that the countries with harshest lockdowns had higher max daily deaths/M. Digging further, let’s look at the first day each country saw significant fatal infections. I lagged reported deaths (7d ma) by 25 days to approx day of infection. Then... 2/
I plotted the first day of 2020 where infections lead to 0.5 deaths/M. Note that the earlier the pandemic began ramping up in a country, the worse the max daily deaths/M. Not a bad R^2. 3/
Read 9 tweets
TNK Profile picture
24 Jul
Sweden: the undeserved battle ground of the pandemic mess. Thankfully we do have at least one country that did things differently to help us learn what really matters in our policy responses. Folks love to cherry-pick pairwise comparisons to support their views. Maybe tho ... 1/
... policy actions don’t matter much at all as far as the virus’ trajectory. Which if true would mean we ruined economies, mental health and so much more for little if any benefit. So I decided to do some analysis using OWID and Oxford Lockdown Stingency data to look at this 2/
I plotted daily Cov19 deaths per Million using a 7 day ma on a log scale to show growth rate. And then I shifted this curve 25 days earlier to approximate deaths by day of infection. I also plotted lockdown stringency to look for any correlation to virus trajectory. 3/
Read 15 tweets

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