Week 11 #THREADtheEDGE

Our Favorite Nuggets from Every Game to Get You ๐Ÿ‘Š Ready for the Weekend...

By @Jmtowin @HilowFF

Let's Goooo! ๐Ÿˆ๐Ÿˆ๐Ÿˆ


"With how aggressive each team has been with their play calling tendencies (Zac Taylor and Ron Rivera), look for each defense to get worn down as the game plays out, leading to increased scoring opportunities in the third and fourth quarters."
"We have a high number of expected plays likely to be run in this game, but a low game total and thus a low amount of expected touchdowns, meaning we should be focused on a specific player or players that we can confidently project to emerge with the highest expected volume."

"Sean Payton might not even realize thisโ€ฆbut this is a dream setup for him: a chance to call a game with absolute creativity (and to potentially blitz DFS players as a result)"
"The Saints have been a really good defense at times this year, but they have also been really inconsistent."

"The Falcons, across their last four games, have scored 40 and 34 against teams that rank 10th and 11th in defensive DVOA"

"This is one of the top questions on the slate as the Steelers check into this game with the highest implied team total, but question marks surrounding how they are likeliest to attack."
"Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game but one this season, but has hit the 300 yard passing bonus in only three games."
"On the season, the Jags pass at the second highest rate in the league at 64.79%, primarily due to this team routinely finding themselves playing from behind. Furthermore, the Steelers lead the NFL in sacks and carry the highest net-adjusted sack rate metric in Week 11."

"We can be sure this Patriots team will continue toting the rock for as long as they can continue to control a game on the ground, which is exactly the area this Texans defense struggles most (32nd in DVOA against the run, 32nd in yards allowed per carry)."
"Over the Patriotsโ€™ last four games, Cam Newton has thrown 92 passes, and 37 have gone to Jakobi Meyers (good for a 40.2% target share). To put that in perspective: in Michael Thomasโ€™ legendary, record-setting 2019, he had a target share of 31.8%."
"DeShaun Watson ranks eighth in the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt and should continue looking intermediate-deep against the Patriots."

"Cleveland has not cared about matchups this season, running the ball on early downs with the score within seven points at the third highest rate in the league, and tracking this direction regardless of who they are playing."
"The Eagles have thrown the ball at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL this season, and Cleveland (even after back-to-back wind games) has faced the 10th highest opponent pass play rate, so we should expect Philly to once again try to win this one through the air."

"If Bridgewaters out, itโ€™s a definite downgrade to the pass catchers (with Samuel becoming the player likeliest to hit on his short-area, schemed-touch role). If Bridgewater plays, itโ€™s a downgrade to the chances of Davis hitting, but itโ€™s an upgrade to Robby and D.J."
"If Swift misses, we shouldnโ€™t expect the Lions to actually adapt enough to lean pass-heavy. Instead, theyโ€™ll simply be less efficient and explosive when they do run the ball."

"While the Tennessee offense has been great this year (especially in soft landing spots), the matchup this week is brutal. Baltimore not only ranks sixth in defensive DVOA, but they rank third against the run."
"Tennessee has two clear (but narrow) paths to offensive goodness here:

1) Baltimore ranks dead last in red zone touchdown rate allowed, and Tennessee ranks second on offense.

2) Baltimore has allowed 13 explosive runs on the season (runs of 10+ yards)."
"The Ravens like to win on the ground, notching the second highest rush play rate on the season, and the second highest rush play rate on early downs with the score within seven points."

"The matchup with the Chargers is most conducive to short-intermediate passing to wide receivers that create separation, pointing to Jamison Crowder as the player most likely to do damage in this spot."
"The Chargers sit at a 2-7 record with every single loss coming in a one-possession game and have not scored a single point in the first quarter in their last three games."

"Brian Flores has shown Cover 0 (zero safeties dropped in coverage) at a high rate with a base 3-4 defensive front, and has mixed blitz packages and coverage schemes in an attempt to confuse quarterbacks and offensive lines."
"The path of least resistance for the man-heavy/blitz-heavy Dolphins defense is over the middle of the field, attacking linebackers in coverage as well as second year safety-turned-corner Nik Needham."

"Because of how much they spread the ball around, they have produced only nine useful fantasy lines this year.

"Hines is the only player on this offense who has topped 22.2 DraftKings points through nine total games. Heโ€™s gotten there twice."
"GB is as different from Indy as it is possible to be when it comes to the way they distribute the ball.

"The name of the game for GB in this one will be the same as it always is: utilize Aaron Rodgers, Adams, and the RBs to try to drive the field and put points on the board."

"In an interesting twist, Ezekiel Elliott has played only 67.7% of the Cowboysโ€™ snaps in this four-game stretch, averaging 18.25 touches per game while Tony Pollard has scooped up 10 touches per game of his own."
"Kirk Cousins has topped 27 pass attempts only three times this season. Not only do the Vikings lead the league in rush play rate on early downs with the score within seven points, but theyโ€™re running the ball in such situations on an absurd 61% of snaps."

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