Insane that the day after GA’s presidential election results were certified, @PredictIt markets still have a 10% chance that Trump will win, and 16-19% chance that he’ll win GA, AZ, or PA. I mean, actual certification of the results changed MAGA fools’ posteriors not one bit.
Yes, their posteriors are taking a beating.
MAGA loons will give you a dollar for 80-90¢ until @PredictIt closes the markets. It’s insane.
The most interesting market for non-loons is the one for Biden’s ultimate margin of victory in the popular vote, since it seems headed somewhere very close to 4.5%, which is exactly the edge between two bets. It’s 50-50 between the 3-4.5% bets and the 4.5-6% ones.

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More from @JoshRosenau

4 Jan
Every now and then I’m reminded that the Iraq war started so long ago some of you were barely born when it started. So 18 years ago, …
Colin Powell and a bunch of people who people trusted because the US President/Sec.State should be trustworthy, lied about s3kr1t evidence Iraq posed an imminent threat. So they got people to allow them to invade, and a couple million Iraqis died (and thousands of US troops).
But Surprise! There were no weapons of mass destruction! It was all lies! Also lies: the promise that Iraq would not become chaotic and that there was a plan for the post-invasion reconstruction. There was no plan and no interest in planning.
Read 11 tweets
5 Jun 19
Well, we signed a contract and put in a deposit for solar panels. They say we’ll offset 100% of our annual electric usage. So excited!

Let’s talk a second about climate change and individual action. 1/
This last week brought essays by @MichaelEMann and @MaryHeglar that argued we need to focus on political reform and that individual choices around climate change are less important in the grand scheme.…… 2/
I agree, broadly speaking.

Lots of people got upset about that argument, though. 3/
Read 18 tweets

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