1/ 5. The promise to give counties 600B (35%) is just a pie in the sky promise that will break the country or cause a constitutional crisis in the future. As we speak, we can't afford to pay for both O&M & counties and something may have to give way very soon.
2/5. We can only afford to pay for salaries + dent & O&M or counties. That is why counties have not been paid for the last 3 months & s@$t is about to hit the fan. Those saying this will be possible because more functions will be devolved to the counties are also being dishonest
3/5. First, assuming even there is something (possible) left to be devolved, you will just be transferring the current funding problems to counties. May be that is the objective? counties are not looking for more work, they are looking for more money to do what they currently do!
4/5. So devolving something that will cost them 10b & giving them an extra 8b each is recipe for disaster. Second, when the national government is not able to fund its functions, it borrows. Counties can't. So devolving 600b will either bankrupt the NG or the counties
5/5. BBI just throwing around $$ without an impact analysis & stress testing of the Finance chapter of the constitution is simply being irresponsible. Give sweeteners for folks to vote for your target changes (expanded executive) but not at the expense of the national interest!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Mohamed Wehliye

Mohamed Wehliye Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @WehliyeMohamed

3 Sep
1. In almost every economy, the government is one of the biggest customers of the private sector for supply of goods & services. The private sector reinvests the money & this helps grow the private sector & the economy & also create sustainable employment for the citizens.
2. Since 2013, trillions of shs in development budget & recurrent expenditure has gone into briefcase cos - to well connected folks with no real businesses & who don't employ even their spousese. Their inflated profits are used to buy Mercs, real estate & expensive overseas hols
3. Add that to the fact that almost all the monies we borrowed over the last 7 years did not even come into the economy. We borrow from a Chinese bank & give the contract to a Chinese company. The money moves from one account in China to another in China.
Read 7 tweets
6 May

Along with dealing the health issues, the highest urgency lies in securing the funding to businesses. The government, the central bank & the commercial banks should come together and play a key role in mitigating the long term economic damage of this health crisis!
1. Covid-19 is a health crisis that has also serious economic consequences. Many countries are dealing with the health problems but are at the same time trying to minimize the impact on the economy now & once the health issues are dealt with.
2. In the last 2 months or so, I have been involved in designing Fiscal impulse, Deferral & Liquidity/Gurantee programs meant to respond to the Covid-19 crisis. In the process, I have looked at the various programs adopted by different countries (of different sizes & capacity)
Read 14 tweets
2 Jan
1. We face serious economic issues in 2020. It is no rocket science. All the numbers point to an unfolding debt nightmare. We need more strategic approach to macro-economic policy instead of piecemeal knee-jerk tactical interventions if we are to save the country.
2. Unless we put breaks to spening & turn the economy around quickly, there will be a downward spiral feeding on itself — an internal fiscal & financial sector crisis. Slower growth would also deepen an already worsening fiscal crisis.
3. Piecemeal reform is like a game of snakes and ladders — you go up one small ladder, and get bitten by a snake tumbling back to where you were. We need comprehensive bold reforms to catch the big ladder and on to the golden turnpike.
Read 8 tweets
19 Nov 19
1. GoK has instructed parastatals to transfer ownership of all the t-bonds they hold to GoK. Debtor asking Creditor to transfer all debt to it. This effectively = forced debt cancellation.
2. Some would ask - what is the problem? government borrowed from itself in the first place & that is now being reversed. Well, it is complicated.
3. You see, when parastatals bought these t-bonds, they paid GoK. So GoK has already spent this money. Kwisha, that money has been spent!
Read 5 tweets
29 Sep 19
I see some folks saying the demonetisation of the 1000 bob has failed coz a big % of the notes have failed to return. Exactly the opposite! The main objective of the demonitisation was to force people with black money to suffer losses. The more money extinguished the better!
If all the notes were returned i.e 100 percent of the 217 billion in 1000 notes was exchanged for the new notes, it means everything has been accounted for and there was no black money out there. In other words, the black money, instead of getting extinguished, got whitened.
A lot of money not coming back to be exchanged just means the hoarders — including criminals- were too afraid to exchange their old bills for new ones because going to banks or CBK was going to expose them to scrutiny and possible prosecution.
Read 4 tweets
13 Jun 19
Projected numbers are always rosy. Ignore them. Look at the ACTUALS. Treasury, in every budget, will tell Kenyans that the budget deficit is 5-6% & projected numbers will even go down further. But look at the ACTUALS. Almost hitting double digits. Disastrous! #BudgetKe2019
The deficit numbers are even worse than they look coz they do not include the PENDING BILLS. GoK budgets for a road, completes 25% of the road & the 75 % to complete that road is not budgeted for in the next FY. Why so many projects are incomplete. #BudgetKe2019
Rotich and the admin are obsessed with the revenue side during every budget. Tax Tax Tax. Yet the EXPENDITURE side keeps growing faster than the revenue side. No caps on expenditure. Look at the above report and see how expenditure is growing faster than revenues #BudgetKe2019
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!