Even comparing a 55 year old (!) to their 85 year old parents, the parents still have a 30x higher fatality rate. That's how lopsided these death rates are.
Indeed, I'd caution people from taking these lopsided death statistics as 100% proven fact: you'd see the same thing from significant numbers of false positives, and/or deaths with COVID rather than from it: the distribution of deaths matches natural mortality very well.
Of course I can assume public health is honest and competent enough to not have _so many_ false cases and deaths that our stats on how deadly it is are wrong... Right?
I can assume that right? Millions of lives and trillions of dollars are at stake...
A catch-22 of these 95% effectiveness vaccines is we don't yet know if they cause antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), like prior attempts at coronavirus vaccines.
Eg with Pfizer, just 8 people got COVID with the vaccine - all mild - vs 172 on the placebo.
...it makes severe infections worse, because the antibody has backfired and prevented your immune system from responding properly. So you can have a vaccine that eliminates mild infections, but still causes more harm overall. ADE also happen naturally, eg with Dengue fever.
The challenge here is the vaccines are effective enough - and COVID-19 rare enough - that we just don't know yet what happens if you luck out and get a severe infection.
That'd be fine if COVID-19 infections were always severe. But they're not: young people have near-zero risk.
FYI my defamation case with Isis Lovecruft settled.
I'm checking with my lawyers about what I can say about it and the evidence we got in discovery. No NDA, so should be able to do a full writeup.
tl;dr: legal battles are ridiculously expensive and I was running out of money.
Eg May's legal bill was $23,464 USD, and discovery was just starting. Probably would have spent another $100-200k easily.
I'd have rather not settled. But I'd be spending my family's money, and I don't feel comfortable doing that when I had the option of a reasonable settlement.
Lovecruft had a potential of recovering ~$50k to $100k legal fees for their anti-SLAPP motion, and also wanted to file for malicious prosecution against me. Dubious legal grounds for that. But in the US system if you run out of money, the other side tends to win by default...
I think I underestimated what a mess quarantines might make for our food supply chains. Plants are shutting down over a single positive case, and lots of supply chains are shutdown. If we don't stay on top of this shortages might happen us due to mismanagement and sticky prices.
Prices are the way information is passed through our economy; without pricing no-one really knows how much should be made or where. Companies afraid of increasing prices, and employees not getting paid extra to risk coming to work, are two examples of how this can easily fail.
Tough sell: working class who already have historically high debt and low savings are fucked over primarily to save the lives of people at the end of their lives, who are seen by many as *why* the working class are in so much financial trouble.
You can't work; they collect rent.
Depends on what death/disability rates for younger people turn out to actually be. But with sufficient inequality I won't be surprised if those numbers are distrusted anyway.
Uniquely, the working class has an effective bioweapon: protest in the streets, spreading the virus.
While virus particles are really small, the flu and coronavirus are probably mostly spread by droplets, which are quite large. Ever tried breathing mist through a cloth? It gets filtered out just fine.
Secondly, while surgical masks don't fit perfectly, they fit pretty well.
If a mask filters 90% of the air you breath - w/ 10% bypass at the edges - you're still breathing in 90% less droplets. It's likely that a single unlucky droplet is enough to infect you, so that's probably something like 90% less risk of _that_ infection mechanism.
Never underestimate the ability of mainstream anything to engage in motivated reasoning.
The motivation is obvious: people want hard money, and some economists wish they didn't. So they deny the obvious: inflation is a punative tax on savings and make up b.s. psych nonsense.
Meanwhile they also recognize a perfectly valid reason for inflation: to pay for security. But *that* reason has no need for more than a token amount of inflation - 0.5% would probably be fine.
They're perfectly smart people, but not ethical enough to tell the truth.
The Bitcoiners are equally guilty! 21 million BTC is practically a religion, and anyone with any economic sense knows that we do have a high inflation rate and do just fine, and the difference between 0% and 0.5% is as insignificant as it sounds. But again, motivated reasoning.