A catch-22 of these 95% effectiveness vaccines is we don't yet know if they cause antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), like prior attempts at coronavirus vaccines.
Eg with Pfizer, just 8 people got COVID with the vaccine - all mild - vs 172 on the placebo.
What ADE does is...
Eg with Pfizer, just 8 people got COVID with the vaccine - all mild - vs 172 on the placebo.
What ADE does is...
https://twitter.com/dalmaer/status/1331023315410898945
...it makes severe infections worse, because the antibody has backfired and prevented your immune system from responding properly. So you can have a vaccine that eliminates mild infections, but still causes more harm overall. ADE also happen naturally, eg with Dengue fever.
The challenge here is the vaccines are effective enough - and COVID-19 rare enough - that we just don't know yet what happens if you luck out and get a severe infection.
That'd be fine if COVID-19 infections were always severe. But they're not: young people have near-zero risk.
That'd be fine if COVID-19 infections were always severe. But they're not: young people have near-zero risk.
The FDA's vaccine approval procedures have a number of measures designed specifically to detect ADE. But it'll take time and data to be able to rule that - potentially data they'll have to collect post-distribution. Other attempts at coronaviruses caused ADE, so it's a concern.
Point being, don't be surprised if this kind of issue crops up. It's quite easy to prove these vaccines are safer than COVID for at risk populations - _even if_ they can cause ADE they could be safer for the elderly. But we just don't know yet if they're safer for the rest.
It took years to get enough data to find that the H1N1 vaccine Pandemrix was causing narcolepsy (54 cases per million vaccinated). H1N1 turned out to be pretty harmless, so giving that vaccine to non-at-risk was probably a net harm.
Temper your expectations...
Temper your expectations...
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28847694/
"The vaccine attributable risk in children and adolescents was around 1 [narcolepsy case] per 18,400 vaccine doses."
54 narcolepsy cases per million vaccinated, compared to 1.3 deaths/million in healthy 0-17yrs. (vaccine came well after peak infections)
"The vaccine attributable risk in children and adolescents was around 1 [narcolepsy case] per 18,400 vaccine doses."
54 narcolepsy cases per million vaccinated, compared to 1.3 deaths/million in healthy 0-17yrs. (vaccine came well after peak infections)
Source re: mortality: thelancet.com/journals/lanon…
You can see why that vaccine got it's approval pulled, and they lost the lawsuits and had to pay compensation. Definitely not worth the risk with safer alternatives. Not even clearly worth the risk without safer alternatives.
You can see why that vaccine got it's approval pulled, and they lost the lawsuits and had to pay compensation. Definitely not worth the risk with safer alternatives. Not even clearly worth the risk without safer alternatives.
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