First stop Canada. Yes, we rolled it over and agreed to re-negotiate. That’s great (although doesn’t really give us full continuity). But it’s a success.
And then there is this 👇
/2
And then there is this 👇
/2
Women’s economic empowerment and the environment - two of the areas where FTA provisions are pretty much "nice to have": don’t change much, are on best endeavours principle and the work needs to anyway be done domestically by each party.
/3
/3
What will having such provisions in the future Canada - UK trade deal change?
Do we really think including them will convince Canada, CANADA (!), to take women’s economic empowerment and the environment more seriously?
What will it change?
/4
Do we really think including them will convince Canada, CANADA (!), to take women’s economic empowerment and the environment more seriously?
What will it change?
/4
And then there is digital trade - it's all about signing up to digital trade provisions in CPTPP. We did this in our FTA with Japan.
Yes, it's good. Will the UK signing up to such provisions change the world or have a significant impact on the UK's economy? Not really.
/5
Yes, it's good. Will the UK signing up to such provisions change the world or have a significant impact on the UK's economy? Not really.
/5
Next stop 👇 What does that mean? What values are these? The main thing currently underpinning our trade strategy is the manifesto and Fox's promise to roll-over EU's trade deals.
And vague statements about championing free trade.
/6
And vague statements about championing free trade.
/6
And then there is this.
I’ve shared my views on the UK joining the CPTPP: great, let’s do it. But why? I mean, sure. Yey! But really, why? What is it that CPTPP gives us that we couldn’t get closer to home?
/7
I’ve shared my views on the UK joining the CPTPP: great, let’s do it. But why? I mean, sure. Yey! But really, why? What is it that CPTPP gives us that we couldn’t get closer to home?
/7
The "modern, business-friendly rules which offer much more than the EU could for the industries of the future" is again mostly about digital trade - yes important but small part of the deal. Impact of this on UK's economy again - tiny (hello gravity model)
/8
/8
And in a way "hitching" is exactly what it is - an attempt to join a deal that clearly wasn't designed for us, where we don't really belong geographically speaking, but one that's comprehensive and looks good.
/9
/9
Brings us back to the fact that signing as many FTAs as possible seems to be the main focus of our trade policy. Why? What is it meant to achieve? Which sectors will it support? Well you know, it's free trade and it's good.
Also “tech unicorns”
/10
Also “tech unicorns”
/10
In other words this 👇
What always strikes me is the contrast between how services have been dealt with during talks with the EU (perhaps even the pending deal) and their strategic importance when we're talking about CPTPP and other deals...
/11
What always strikes me is the contrast between how services have been dealt with during talks with the EU (perhaps even the pending deal) and their strategic importance when we're talking about CPTPP and other deals...
/11
What in the name of everything that's holy is patriotic globalism?! You can't just say stuff like that without further explanation.
India has many trade deals, but also the "make in India" policy which led it to leave the RCEP deal. Is that it? Is that like us and the EU?
/12
India has many trade deals, but also the "make in India" policy which led it to leave the RCEP deal. Is that it? Is that like us and the EU?
/12
And then we finally come to what's always been my biggest issue with UK's take on CPTPP. Attaching our own meaning and ideology to this deal.
It's a trade deal, not the Rebel Alliance.
/13
It's a trade deal, not the Rebel Alliance.
/13
Yes, in its origin that deal was meant to "balance" China's growing influence in the region. That was before the trade wars.
Side point - do we even know what UK's trade policy towards China is under this Gov?
/14
Side point - do we even know what UK's trade policy towards China is under this Gov?
/14
All deals need momentum. Especially large ones. And leaders often use hyperbolic language to create such momentum.
Mostly it's done by massively exaggerating the benefits of a prospective FTA without any regard to how FTAs actually work (conditional benefits)- like this 👇
/15
Mostly it's done by massively exaggerating the benefits of a prospective FTA without any regard to how FTAs actually work (conditional benefits)- like this 👇
/15
The "fight for free and fair trade" bit is something else. Something more. It's like an ideology that's beyond facts or reality.
An ideology that says that free trade is good unless it's with the EU cause they're evil and protectionist.
/16
An ideology that says that free trade is good unless it's with the EU cause they're evil and protectionist.
/16
An ideology that creates terms like "patriotic globalism". Or that tries to convince ppl that signing a trade deal with Canada will "change the world".
/17
/17
There is no way the UK-Canada deal or us joining the CPTPP can meet these expectations. These are still just trade deals with a limited impact on our economy. We're setting ourselves for disappointment.
/end
/end
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