No, it won’t.

Like really, trust me, it won't change the world.

First stop Canada. Yes, we rolled it over and agreed to re-negotiate. That’s great (although doesn’t really give us full continuity). But it’s a success.

And then there is this 👇

Women’s economic empowerment and the environment - two of the areas where FTA provisions are pretty much "nice to have": don’t change much, are on best endeavours principle and the work needs to anyway be done domestically by each party.

What will having such provisions in the future Canada - UK trade deal change?

Do we really think including them will convince Canada, CANADA (!), to take women’s economic empowerment and the environment more seriously?

What will it change?

And then there is digital trade - it's all about signing up to digital trade provisions in CPTPP. We did this in our FTA with Japan.

Yes, it's good. Will the UK signing up to such provisions change the world or have a significant impact on the UK's economy? Not really.

Next stop 👇 What does that mean? What values are these? The main thing currently underpinning our trade strategy is the manifesto and Fox's promise to roll-over EU's trade deals.

And vague statements about championing free trade.

And then there is this.

I’ve shared my views on the UK joining the CPTPP: great, let’s do it. But why? I mean, sure. Yey! But really, why? What is it that CPTPP gives us that we couldn’t get closer to home?

The "modern, business-friendly rules which offer much more than the EU could for the industries of the future" is again mostly about digital trade - yes important but small part of the deal. Impact of this on UK's economy again - tiny (hello gravity model)

And in a way "hitching" is exactly what it is - an attempt to join a deal that clearly wasn't designed for us, where we don't really belong geographically speaking, but one that's comprehensive and looks good.

Brings us back to the fact that signing as many FTAs as possible seems to be the main focus of our trade policy. Why? What is it meant to achieve? Which sectors will it support? Well you know, it's free trade and it's good.
Also “tech unicorns”

In other words this 👇

What always strikes me is the contrast between how services have been dealt with during talks with the EU (perhaps even the pending deal) and their strategic importance when we're talking about CPTPP and other deals...

What in the name of everything that's holy is patriotic globalism?! You can't just say stuff like that without further explanation.

India has many trade deals, but also the "make in India" policy which led it to leave the RCEP deal. Is that it? Is that like us and the EU?

And then we finally come to what's always been my biggest issue with UK's take on CPTPP. Attaching our own meaning and ideology to this deal.

It's a trade deal, not the Rebel Alliance.

Yes, in its origin that deal was meant to "balance" China's growing influence in the region. That was before the trade wars.
Side point - do we even know what UK's trade policy towards China is under this Gov?

All deals need momentum. Especially large ones. And leaders often use hyperbolic language to create such momentum.
Mostly it's done by massively exaggerating the benefits of a prospective FTA without any regard to how FTAs actually work (conditional benefits)- like this 👇

The "fight for free and fair trade" bit is something else. Something more. It's like an ideology that's beyond facts or reality.

An ideology that says that free trade is good unless it's with the EU cause they're evil and protectionist.

An ideology that creates terms like "patriotic globalism". Or that tries to convince ppl that signing a trade deal with Canada will "change the world".

There is no way the UK-Canada deal or us joining the CPTPP can meet these expectations. These are still just trade deals with a limited impact on our economy. We're setting ourselves for disappointment.


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More from @AnnaJerzewska

21 Nov
I like this approach - sign a continuity deal and commit to negotiating a proper one later on.

Allows you to maintain some sort of continuity but acknowledges that the EU deal is not necessarily fit for purpose for the UK-Canada trade relationship.

More importantly, this removes the Jan deadline for negotiating a proper FTA. Until you do, the roll-over applies. Meaning parties have more time to ensure the new deal is exactly what they want it to be.

The downside, of course, yet another deal for the UK to negotiate. While LT can talk about the UK having large numbers of negotiators, few of them have proper experience and we will still be somewhat overstretch

Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
And for those of you keeping score at home:

None of it, literally none of it is new.

Every single trade/customs/logistics specialist not paid to come up with good news would have warned the Gov about this even BEFORE the referendum

Our ports haven't changed, it's not like we have less space in Dover now than we did 5 years ago.

The nature of ro-ro traffic or logistics involved haven't changed.

The customs/SPs procedures for non-EU members haven't fundamentally changed.

If you had asked someone in 2015 to outline the risks related to moving fresh products from the EU to the UK under an FTA/no-deal, they would have told you.

Read 7 tweets
17 Nov
SME chapters very rarely (if ever) include provisions that really require an FTA - it's mostly things both sides could and should do (irrespective of a deal).

In fact, one of the key provisions of many SME chapters is transparency/access to data.

This is all about creating a one-stop-shop source of information for SMEs.

E.g. 👇

/2 ImageImage
Something the UK Gov should definitely work on going forward.

If you don't know what I mean - try to find any provision under the UK's new continuity deals.

Read 5 tweets
9 Nov
So this is a fascinating🧵
Why? Cause out of all the IT systems we need for 1 Jan I thought CDS was not the biggest issue.

Short one on why and a bit of background on CDS and what does that all mean in practice.
Quick background: upgrading CHIEF (current system) to CDS predates Brexit. Introducing EU's new customs legislation in 2016 meant that new functionality required. CHIEF was also getting old and generally needed a revamp.

So CDS was supposed to be ready in 2018. HMRC announced it will launch it in August 2018 and gradually move traders from CHIEF to CDS batch by batch.

Spoiler alert - that didn't quite happen

Read 14 tweets
8 Nov
I'm still wondering whether we'll actually see signs of this newly found enthusiasm for compromising on the UK-EU deal.

Sure, the world has just become a somewhat lonelier place for the UK's PM but I'm just not sure that it was the promise of a UK-US deal

that stood in the way of a compromise. Perhaps it was just the Brexit myth (sovereignty etc) or once again an example of this Gov talking itself into a corner.

I'll be very interested to see whether the UK will indeed "cave".

As smn tweeted yesterday.

We've known for a while that there will need to be some movement on both sides for a deal to be reached - it's not possible for both sides to keep their current red lines.

Read 5 tweets
7 Nov
I have NEVER been this happy to lose a bet
Wow, CNN

"It's easier to be a parent this morning"
Read 4 tweets

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