A quick thread for the #ButNorway! bears: Let's just check your acceptance of a few basic facts here.

1) You do realize that Tesla's global sales have consistently grown corresponding to *new capacity growth*, right?
2) You do realize that this corresponds to *production limitation*, regardless of where they choose to allocate production (wait times) or what pricing they choose - right?

3) You do realize that a company exponentially shifts demand with linear adjustments in prices, right?
4) You do realize that the indicator of how much a company needs to boost demand, relative to their prod. capacity, is encapsulated in their auto margins, right?

5) You do realize that Tesla's margins are *growing*, and are now a huge >27% wo/credits, >22% w/credits - right?
6) You do realize that Tesla has to pay to ship cars across the Atlantic and is then hit with 10% tariffs, before we then encounter said huge margins *on top of that*, right?

7) You do realize that that shipping & those tariffs will soon be going away due to Giga Berlin, right?
8) You do realize that by contrast to Tesla's huge margins, when VW was last asked about reports that they'd lose several k € per ID.3 they said they expected to be able to bring them positive (e.g. confirming the report), & that was *before* their production debacles - right?
9) You do realize that the reason they're selling vehicles that they lose money on is to offset EU emissions fines - but simultaneously, most vehicles they sell come at the expense of an ICE they would have actually made money on, right?
10) You do realize that if you continually lose money or make only small margins on a vehicle, while your competitors make huge / growing margins, *you will eventually die*, right?
11) You do realize that the Model 3 has been on sale in Europe for two years, while ID.3 itself is brand new on the market and has been being built and stockpiled due to software delays, with the backlog just now hitting the market, right?
12) You do realize that meanwhile there's massive backlog in Europe for *Tesla's most popular model*, Model Y, right?

13) You do realize that said deliveries begin 1H of next year, right?
14) You do realize that demand for MY over M3 is *highest* in northern countries that experience a lot of snow and/or have rugged terrain, right?

15) You do realize that *even if Tesla's long-term sales in *all* markets were proportional to what they are in your hand-picked-to-
...look-bad "NL+NO" over 2020, around the entire world, that as the rest of the world electrified, Tesla would *nonetheless* rise to higher annual global sales than the highest 2030 analyst forecasts, right? And thus Tesla's automotive segment would *still* be undervalued?
16) You do realize that Tesla's automotive segment is the *least* undervalued aspect of Tesla, right? For example, Adam Jonas just valued Tesla Energy at $12/share, based on expectations of 11.8 GWh of storage deployed by 2030. In the real world, by 2030, TE's *annual*...
storage deployments will be measured in *TWh* in 2030.

Just checking up on whether you realize and fully grok these things.

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More from @enn_nafnlaus

23 Nov
Time for another #BearyTale - "The Tale of The Demand Limitation"! Image
According to this tale, Tesla gave the game away when they started listing peak capacities in their earnings reports, which surely can be assumed to have near-zero downtime related to holidays, upgrades, supplier limitations, etc, and pretty please don't read the fine print. Image
Gee, then, I wonder what happens when we plot out the ratio of peak capacity to production as total capacity changes dramatically due to new lines and COVID closures.

(Averaging between EOQ rates and not counting GF3 Q3 '19, as it's listed as "preproduction" and was near-zero) Image
Read 7 tweets
16 Nov
@momsbyof3 @seastar898 @Creeks2013 @oldcanadaseries Their backstory is crazy. Maye's father was a member of Technocracy, which Canada feared aimed to overthrow the government. He worked in tons of random jobs, incl. help establish chiropracty in Canada. He took his whole fam to SA and they lived like Indiana Jones, looking for a..
@momsbyof3 @seastar898 @Creeks2013 @oldcanadaseries ... lost city (which they never found). In SA, Maye started dating Errol Musk, who she too late realized was a serious manipulator and abuser; he even manipulated her into marrying him by telling all her friends and family that she had said yes, so she'd be too embarassed to...
@momsbyof3 @seastar898 @Creeks2013 @oldcanadaseries ... back out. She finally did divorce him, with three children from the marriage. The older two wanted nothing to do with Errol, but Errol's mother convinced a young Elon that his father would be lonely without him, so he chose to stay - which he quickly came to regret. Errol...
Read 10 tweets
11 Nov
Elon: <some journalists are only interested in innuendo, namecalling, and outright falsehoods about me; I'm done being nice to them>

@nickbilton : <writes article full of innuendo, name calling, and outright falsehoods, while damning Musk for not being nice to people like him>
The lack of self-awareness by @nickbilton is staggering.

Or maybe he literally is this blind to his extensive use of innuendo, name calling, and outright falsehoods? Nick, would it help if I held up a mirror to you and your work?
"vainglorious" - @elonmusk's Twitter feed is a *constant* stream of him pushing away praise of himself and heaping it on others. Here, less than 24 hours ago:

"villain" - Gee, why would Elon think negatively of you?
Read 21 tweets
11 Oct
Every now and then, the old lie, "Martin Eberhard founded Tesla, Elon Musk stole it from him!" crops up.

Facts matter, so let's break down the actual timeline.

'94: Musk does a summer internship developing advanced capacitors in hopes of being able to use them for EVs.
'94: AC Propulsion (Gage, Cocconi) release the first version of the AC-150 powertrain.

'94: Musk founds Zip2 along with Kimbal and Greg Kouri. Musk's investment was the PC.
Fall, '94: Musk moves to California to attend Stanford for postgraduate physics studies, but immediately drops out due to the internet boom and the rising success of his company Zip2.

'97: Gage starts tzero construction. Cocconi further develops the powertrain.
Read 33 tweets
9 Oct
Why does Marty keep insisting on destroying his own life? What's wrong with him? No, seriously, what medically is wrong with him?

Threats of violence the CEO of the company you're in a lawsuit with....? This goes beyond the phrase "not legally advisable"... Image
He's not just hurting himself. His TSLAQ hedge fund benefactors who saw him as some sort of weapon to use against Tesla are potentially going to pay the price for his actions. Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Oct
Oceanic Cargo Electrification, In Four "Easy" Steps

(given that even @elonmusk's Roadrunner packs aren't sufficiently power dense or low cost for the role)

Step 1) Build floating wind farms...

Or floating solar....

... ditching all of the costs associated with the right half of this image.
Read 11 tweets

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