Right and wrong aside, if you're a political advisor to the Prime Minister what's your advice on Patel?

Likely to circle the wagons.

The only people whose opinion matters right now are fellow Tory MPs, and the public won't remember a bullying scandal when voting 3 year later.
Sure, Tory MPs could turn on him if the bottom completely drops out of his polls (and hence probably theirs), but is this going to be the issue that does it?

Doubtful.

The usual suspects are already running defense and pivoting this toward being yet another culture war.
The UK conservatives have enjoyed considerable success politically by framing every issue as a battle between their democratically elected ministers and some other force that's thwarting or undermining them.

Judiciary, the Lords, activist lawyers, Remainers, the civil service.
You can already see this latest issue creeping in that direction as surrogates and friendly journalists begin hinting or stating overtly that this whole thing is just yet another battle in the war between the people's government and an opposition of shadowy elites.

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More from @DmitryOpines

1 Oct
PREMIUM

"Twitter leftists mocking the wave machine are betting against the ingenuity of the British worker."
-- By Higgins Wortlecock-Lightby III
"Build the wave machine before it's British values that are swept away by the tide."
- Spiked Online Editorial
"Brittania once ruled the waves. A wave-machine will return us to that glory."
- Nigel Farage at the launch of his "Mince Pies for British Lads Party"
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
My deeply unsexy takes on @pmdfoster's amazing story:

1. Looks bad but We won't know what this is until the bill is out.

2. If this is a negotiating tactic, it's a bad one.

3. Those implying this will sink future UK FTA's with 3rd countries are (in my view) overstating a bit.
1/ Expanding on (3) because people will yell at me:

In my view, 3rd countries like Canada and Japan will consider the WA distinct enough from regular FTA practice not to begin questioning whether the UK will live up to tariff bindings or other FTA commitments over this.
2/ "What about Pelosi and Congress?"

Yeah, that might be a problem but:

a) The test for Pelosi and Irish-American Congressfolk is going to be if the border descends into chaos and violence again. Not clear this does that.

b) US deal not even remotely close anyway.
Read 5 tweets
3 Sep
1/ As far back as 18 months ago, still prominent public figures were publicly saying crashing out of the EU with no transition period would either be no big deal, or actually quite good for the UK.

It's 18 months later. Let's check the papers.
2/ @Joe_Mayes reports the government is so concerned about port and highway chaos after transition it is using a statutory instrument to acquire authority to unilaterally slap giant lorry parking lots all over the country without local council consent.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ @adampayne26 reports UK food companies still don't know how to label their products so that they're eligible to go on EU and NI shelves.

The government has missed what the industry called the absolute deadline to inform them.

businessinsider.com/brexit-food-co…
Read 6 tweets
21 Aug
1/ Seeing this consolidated text being described as intended to "break the deadlock" a lot.

That may be what UK officials are briefing out, but that's not what consolidated texts are typically used for.

A thread.
2/ In a negotiation as complex as this, both sides rock up with their own versions of every paragraph.

So on fisheries you have two documents, both with a paragraph 1, 2, 3, most of which cover identical things, just with different legal language.
3/ For some paragraphs the text is going to be virtually identical and easy to reconcile.

For example, both the EU and UK probably define "fishing vessel" pretty similarly.

Negotiators can agree on a text for that part no problem.
Read 9 tweets
9 Aug
Reminder: My 90 minute course on how to plan a negotiation with your boss is great, has a 'would recommend' rate of 4.7/5, and costs about 15 pounds.

I'm also still more than happy to halve the price for anyone going through a tough time ATM. Just DM me.

explaintrade.learnworlds.com/course?coursei…
FAQ: "Do I have to do all 90 minutes in one sitting?"

"No, it's a digital e-learning. You can do it 4 seconds at a time over the next five years if that's your preferred method of learning."
FAQ: "I'm not looking for a bigger salary, but there's something else I want from my boss, will this course help?"

"Yes, while the course includes a lot of content specific to negotiating a salary package, it is designed for any give and take conversation with your employer."
Read 5 tweets
8 Aug
Thought exercise:

You're a UK Diplomat.

Asylum seekers currently in France, where their presence has at times been just as politicised, are trying to leave France to head to the UK.

Your job is to convince the French to help you thwart them doing so.

What's your pitch?
Note:
- Asylum seekers are not legally obligated to seek refuge in the first country they get to, and transit through a safe country is not grounds for refusing asylum under the UN Refugee Convention.
Ok, to answer some points below:

- Yes, the UK could pull out of the UN Refugee Convention, but that's not the current policy of HMG and diplomats have to work within that.

- Having a UK warship tow a boat to France without the consent of the French is an act of war.
Read 4 tweets

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