Thread by @BarbLarochelle

I don’t want to seem paranoid, but I really feel that despite their truly superhuman efforts to follow all possible protocols, schools are driving this covid spread to a far greater degree than the government will admit. 1/10

We know there has been in school transmission in 166 schools. We’re told ‘about half’ spread to “only one” other case. Let’s examine that claim. The way this government equivocates, we can be sure that ‘about half’ is not less than half or exactly half or they would say so. 2/10

So, at a minimum, 84 of 166 schools had more than one case transmitted. If those schools had only 2 cases as a result, we get (84 x 2)+ 82 (with one case)= 250 cases. Minimum. However, the schools with >1 other case—how many others? It could be a LOT more than 2. 3/10

We’re seeing schools on watch with classes quarantined and suddenly there are multiple cases reported among the quarantined classes. Coincidence? There are schools reporting double digits of cases in a short span of time. It could very easily be 300+ cases caught at school. 4/10

Kids don’t live alone. I don’t know about other people’s houses, but at our house it would be really difficult to fully isolate someone to the point where no one else would catch covid. It’s certain that kids who caught covid at school have transmitted it to family members. 5/10

Is that counted as a household transmission, counted with the in school transmissions, or left in the ‘unknown’ category? What if a sibling caught it that way at home, then brought it to *their* school? How is that counted? We never hear about this. 6/10

There are also a lot of teachers either married to other teachers or with kids of their own in school who could get caught in this contagion spiral. All of this should be considered ‘in school transmission’ if that’s where it originated. 7/10

And none of this even factors in asymptomatic kids who brought it home and spread it to family members unaware. There is the expectation that everyone quarantined would be tested, but I don’t think there is any follow up or anyone verifying this. 8/10

If we had a circuit-breaker including schools and the numbers went way down, it might reveal schools as a bigger than admitted factor. If they had a circuit-breaker excepting schools numbers didn’t decline as expected, it would show that even more clearly. 9/10

The #COVIDAlert app might reveal the same thing. Then UCP would have to admit they were wrong & all the warnings about schools were not fear-mongering. I hate distrusting the government this much, but the way the infection curve escalated after mid Sept. isn’t coincidence. 10/10