22 Nov, 31 tweets, 7 min read
It’s difficult to get our minds around exponential growth because it’s largely invisible to us, even though we’re surrounded by it in our daily lives. (Mold grows exponentially. And yeast. And populations. And your money, with compound interest.)

So let’s try to get our minds around it.

Imagine you made a deal with your bank, and convinced them to give you 1 penny on the first day of the month, then double it every day thereafter. So on day two, you have 2 cents. Day three, 4 cents; day 5, 8 cents, and so on.
By day 8 you have a buck-28. So what. Big deal.

By day 15 you have \$163. Okay, nice.
When will you have over half a million dollars?

Answer: 12 days later, on day 27. On that day, you’ll have \$671,088.64
When will you be a millionaire?
Answer: the next day, on day 28. On that day, you’ll have \$1.3 million.
On day 30, you’ll have \$5.3 million.

Day 1: 1 cent
Day 30: \$5.3 million
If you’re a visual person…

Days 1 through 7:
Days 8 and 10:
Day 22:
Day 30:

But there’s nothing funny at all about exponential growth when it comes to viral infections.
Amy Acton was expecting cases to eventually double around every 6 days.
news5cleveland.com/news/continuin…
She was very close. November 3:
daytondailynews.com/news/coronavir…
Let’s go to national numbers.

Another way of looking at this: of all the cases the United States has had to date, 25% of them have been in the last 3 weeks.
50% of them have been since September 1.
covidtracking.com/data/national/…
Let’s go back to our bank scenario. Here it is expressed in graphs.
Does the shape of the graph look familiar?
Source: covidtracking.com/data
So imagine that kind of growth + spread, and then this:
👆 It’s like pouring gasoline on a fire.
Meanwhile, Trump does…nothing.
msn.com/en-us/news/wor…
Meanwhile, he prevents our president-elect from taking action to save our lives.

Meanwhile, @gsaEmily prevents the Biden administration from trying to save us from an absolute, staggering tragedy.
Republicans stand by and watch.
It’s not hyperbole to say people will die from this.

With exponential growth of cases, comes exponential growth of deaths.
cbsnews.com/news/texas-nat…
With exponential growth of cases comes exponential growth of hospitalizations.
With exponential growth of cases comes exponential strain on first responders.

Who will help us when there’s a fire? A car accident? When your baby has a febrile seizure?
How will we get a vaccine when there aren’t enough health care workers to perform even basic services?
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
How can the economy keep moving when 10,000 of us are dying every few days?
cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-…
Who wants to go to a restaurant or window shopping when bodies are literally piling up around us?
There’s a reason doctors and scientists are begging,
B-E-G-G-I-N-G us to
-not travel or gather for the holidays
-stay home
-wear a mask when we must go out
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

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21 Nov
When our healthcare system collapses, so does the ability to effectively and quickly vaccinate people.
We pretty much ignored what was happening in Italy in the early parts of the pandemic. We should have paid attention then, and we should pay attention now. Here's a preview of what collapse looks like:
ilfattoquotidiano.it/2020/11/07/cor…
Those are ambulances with coronavirus patients waiting in line, because there's nowhere to put people.
20 Nov
My point about all this: there are only a few choices here as to what was actually going on; none of them good for this country.
1. They actually did have serious vaccine talks happening and/or on their radar as far back as January 13 (or sooner), then proceeded to gaslight the entire country for months on end - and 250,000 of us are dead, with more to come.
2. They quickly looked at Moderna’s website and govt paperwork that had little to do with them; then made shit up and tweeted it.
20 Nov
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. We're doing the same thing with COVID and expecting different results. We need to change course, and we need to do it now.
They're already doing it in the UK. forbes.com/sites/alexleds…
19 Nov
If this is true, it's...there aren't words for how evil and depraved it is. This is from Trump's Senior Advisor, aka daughter. Let's look at what was happening at this time.
The first confirmed case isn't until 8 days later:
abcnews.go.com/Health/timelin…
January 22, 2020: Trump says "It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine."

cnbc.com/2020/01/22/tru…
19 Nov
Holy shit. What an utter disgrace. amp.cincinnati.com/amp/3775193001…
A large chunk of our council has now been arrested on bribery charges. I’m ashamed to have ever supported them. What a disgusting breach of public trust.
I guess we’ll find out what he was doing at 11 am.
15 Nov
We haven’t gotten it through our skulls that all the extra beds, makeshift event center hospitals, PPE and ventilators in the world won’t make a bit of difference if there aren’t any medical professionals around. theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Nor have we gotten it through our skulls that when we go into labor/get into a car wreck/slice our finger off/shatter our leg/have a baby spiking a terrifying fever we’ll be SOL when the hospital’s full of COVID patients.
Coming to a hospital near you: “Last Monday we had 25 patients waiting in the emergency department. They had been admitted but there was no one to take care of them.”