Thread by @Prof_Awet

THREAD on #Ethiopia & the region II
After 2 weeks of rebuffing mediation to ongoing #EthiopianCivilWar, PM @AbiyAhmedAli is begrudgingly warming up to that possibility. I pray for his courage for it takes courage to make peace, & for innocent civilians’ sake, I wish him success

Intricacies of possible mediation demand clear-eyed reading of what may have contributed to such coming out of one’s corner – even if lukewarm. Moreover, any dragging of one's feet to immediately ceasefire & allow humanitarian access brings near a catastrophe of epic proportions

Ethiopian federal forces & aligned regional militias are measuring success by territorial gains. A close monitoring of what appears to be transpiring on the frontlines, however, contradicts this. Gov't advances appear to be feeble & gains stoppable - if not reversible.

#TPLF doesn't seem to lose fighters an&/or materiel. Early tactical counter-offensives showed how fleeting gov't territorial gains have been. Federal troops were dispersed, #Eritrea came to their rescue in combat [be on lookout for another thread on 'myth of Eritrean restraint'].

Addis is relying on 1) numerical superiority, especially of Amhara regional militia. 2) Eritrean fighting capacity in north & technical expertise in south. Lacking credible reporting by advancing side could mean battlefields are carnage sites b/c inexperience or training.

Imprudent bravado of boastful generals aside, #Ethiopian military is historically honest in its internal reporting. i.e. the PM & his war council must know their staggering losses that are hard to sustain; & all that before #Tigray launched an all-out strategic counter-offensive.

Moreover, no advancing army can exercise effective control over vast territory that federal troops claim to be 'liberating'. Taking towns & roads connecting them means Addis’ control is at best porous. That's a recipe for more debacles in the coming weeks – & possibly months.

#TPLF relying on its tested fighting capacity (commanders & fighters), cohesive force fighting for survival, & intimate knowledge of terrain. Their project confidence b/c they inflict heavy damages even as they pull out. In a few cases, they withdrew before fighting even started.

The bulk of Tigrayan fighting force in now encircled in theatre of operation that is 150km-200km in radius, with regional capital #Mekelle at the center. If the fighting is left to run its course, the battle for Mekelle will be a blood bath of biblical proportions. Here is why:

1. Taking advantage of time & prior presence in the area, #TPLF forces most likely hold commanding positions in the tough terrain. Advancing forces would've to march through killing fields in front of them while possibly fending off attacks on their flanks & rear (Tweet 7 above).

2. Every time #Tigrayans fighters pulled out of towns, civilians (willing or unwilling) followed them. Mekelle now has significantly more than normal civilian population that came looking for protection but find themselves vulnerable in two ways (see #3 & #4 below).

3. Addis (from @AbiyAhmedAli to combat commanders) has warned civilians to save themselves for there wouldn’t be mercy. Most recently, a certain Col. Dejene Tsegaye, leading the advancing government troops, said on national TV that it would be 'tank-to-tank combat with no mercy'.

4. Mekelle’s basic food & medical supplies are likely stretched thin already & will be more so when/if the fighting drags on. If government troops persist in their tactics so far & deliver on their threats, it will be a death sentence to city's innocent civilians.

CONCLUSION
Allowing the slaughter even of combatants should stain the conscience of humanity. As things stand right now, the international community risks witnessing – and being complicit in – possible mass killing of innocent civilians. So I urgently call to #EndWarinEthiopia.

I have no sympathy for either of the warring sides. As someone who has survived wars, grew up in refugee camp & I am stateless now, I speak out of moral responsibility to err on the side of innocent civilians. I draw on my expertise as I do so.

#Journalists, I respect your profession and admire your work. But this is not a cry for air time; I am NOT avilble for any interviews. But if you find any of what I am saying here as credible &/or useful, I urge you to pass it on to your networks. Thank you.