1. Today, @schneierblog and I have a piece in the New York Times, on how Trump's enablers are damaging democracy - nytimes.com/2020/11/23/opi… (read it together with nytimes.com/2020/11/23/opi… by @rickhasen - both published on the same day and cover different aspects of same problem).
2. What our piece does is the following. First, to argue that democracy is an information system, where the most crucial information that needs to be protected is the scaffolding of beliefs that democracy needs to work.
3. Second, that like other more traditional information systems (think computer servers) the key vulnerabilities are much more easily exploited by insiders (U.S. politicians) than outsiders (Russian trolling efforts). And that explains why U.S. democracy is in trouble.
4. As we briefly mention (and Hasen explains at length), it is wildly unlikely that Republican efforts to overturn the election will work. But what is far more likely is that the interlocking beliefs that U.S. democracy requires to function properly will be seriously damaged.
5. The key insights we are building on are Adam Przeworski's (we refer to him in the piece). Adam's understanding of democracy suggests it is more fragile than most people believe (see washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/… for more).
6. He sees democracy as a way of managing deep differences between citizens without resorting to violence. Votes, as he famously describes them, are "paper stones." So why and when do groups throw paper stones at each other rather than real ones?
7. The answer he provides is that they do this when it is in their interests to do so. They will accept elections that go against them when they believe that there are long term benefits from political stability and when they have a fair shot at trying again in future elections.
8. But when they don't believe that these elections will be fairly conducted, their incentives to accept democracy dwindle rapidly. They are likely to behave accordingly, grabbing advantage when they can. And so too are their adversaries, perhaps creating an escalatory spiral.
9. The lesson that Przeworski offers is that democracy depends on beliefs, and that these beliefs can be readily disrupted, leading to democratic backsliding. And that is what appears to be happening now thanks both to Trump, and his enablers, who are reshaping Republican beliefs
10. Furthermore, their actions undermine the beliefs of Democrats that Republicans will abide by results that go against them, or will resist the temptation to cheat when they think they can get away with it. This may lead to further unraveling.
11. As we say, this doesn't mean U.S. democracy is doomed. The U.S. federal system is complex, messy and hard for any one party to dominate. It does mean that (barring unexpected changes), we are in for a long period of democratic stasis (in both modern and classic Greek sense).
12. The real problems of American democracy don't really involve foreign influence, but domestic undermining by politicians with trusted access. When we should really expect trouble is when insiders break bad. And the current Republican party has gone full Walter White. Finis.
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