IMHO: Best way to view Trump support within the GOP is to anticipate we're going back in time from early-2017.
So by summer of 2021, expect him to have as much control as in the summer of 2016 when he won the nomination (yet faced resistance from high-profile Rs like Cruz). 1/2
So by summer of 2021, expect him to have as much control as in the summer of 2016 when he won the nomination (yet faced resistance from high-profile Rs like Cruz). 1/2
https://twitter.com/BrendanBuck/status/1330908849562394625
When it becomes clear he doesn't have the competence and discipline to "lead" a party, the support continues to dissipate from there...
late-2021, he'll have the same degree of support when he was approaching the early 2016 primaries/caucuses...
late-2021, he'll have the same degree of support when he was approaching the early 2016 primaries/caucuses...
by early 2022, when Rs can't afford to nominate extremists in key SEN/GOV races, you'll see the level of support back to where it was in late 2015, not long after he first came down the elevator.
big picture: having power matters. Being able to do damaging things while in office is hemming in GOP public behavior now. Georgia runoffs adding to the political cravenness of the GOP.
Trump not having actual power changes a lot of the intra-GOP behavior post-2021.
Trump not having actual power changes a lot of the intra-GOP behavior post-2021.
* post-2020.
the exit poll question about GOP reaction to a Biden victory was telling: half disappointed/half angry.
The GOP, right now, is a coalition evenly divided between establishment and the kraken. As time goes on, some of the kraken faction just moves on.
njour.nl/s/711326?unloc…
The GOP, right now, is a coalition evenly divided between establishment and the kraken. As time goes on, some of the kraken faction just moves on.
njour.nl/s/711326?unloc…
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