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23 Nov, 8 tweets, 4 min read
Happy Thanksgiving week!

My new Against the Grain column: “The Biggest Political Turkeys of 2020”

“The most infamous political flops of the year—from not-ready-for-prime-time candidates to campaign tactics that didn’t stand the test of time.”

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1) Martha McSally, who “was one of the few frontline Republican Senate candidates to run behind President Trump; the president lost the state by a 0.3-percent margin, while she trailed Kelly by 2.4 percent.”

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2) Amy McGrath, the #KYSEN challenger who raised $88M in her race against McConnell only to see him win the second-highest vote share in his Senate career

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3) Michael Bloomberg: Spent a *billion* dollars to win a measly 59 delegates only to dump big money in Florida, Ohio and Texas for Biden - only to see him lose those states badly.

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4) #NJ03 candidate David Richter: He never lived up to his pledge to spend his fortune, and ended up getting crushed in a district that Trump narrowly carried.

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5) Progressive House challengers: The left’s favorite House recruits thought they could ride a blue wave in swing districts. Instead, they went 0-5 and ran well behind Joe Biden in all these races.

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6) R recruiting holes in Trump districts.

“Given that Rs greatly overperformed pre-election expectations, it’s very possible that the lack of credible candidates in certain competitive districts may have prevented them from winning back majority”

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7) Political polling: “The polling industry, writ large, missed the mark by more than it did four years ago. FiveThirtyEight’s final national polling average showed Biden ahead by 8.4 points; his final winning margin is likely to be about half that”

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More from @HotlineJosh

Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
23 Nov
IMHO: Best way to view Trump support within the GOP is to anticipate we're going back in time from early-2017.

So by summer of 2021, expect him to have as much control as in the summer of 2016 when he won the nomination (yet faced resistance from high-profile Rs like Cruz). 1/2
When it becomes clear he doesn't have the competence and discipline to "lead" a party, the support continues to dissipate from there...

late-2021, he'll have the same degree of support when he was approaching the early 2016 primaries/caucuses...
by early 2022, when Rs can't afford to nominate extremists in key SEN/GOV races, you'll see the level of support back to where it was in late 2015, not long after he first came down the elevator.
Read 6 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
23 Nov
Spot on. Trumpism much more about cultural grievance than economic hardship.
that said, the country is a lot more culturally conservative than both Dems and GOP leaders appreciated! Dems created their own problems by going so far left on key cultural issues that they alienated S FL Hispanics, for instance.
my own contribution to the genre, months after Trump was first elected:
njour.nl/s/652599?unloc…
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
13 Nov
"Yglesias felt that he could no longer speak his mind without riling his colleagues....As a relative moderate at Vox, he felt that it was important to challenge what he called the dominant sensibility... that sets the tone at digital-media organizations"
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
"Yglesias said he believes that certain voguish positions are substantively wrong—for instance, defunding police—and that such arguments, as well as rhetorical fights over terms like Latinx, alienate many people from progressive politics and the D Party."
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Yglesias: "The people making the media are young college grads in big cities, & that kind of politics makes a lot of sense to them. We keep seeing older people, and working-class people of all races and ethnicities, just don’t share that entire worldview"
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
5 Nov
This May column has some data in it that, I think, helps explain the surprising GOP showing downballot.

njour.nl/s/707162?unloc…
Trump-Biden voters "a demographically diverse mix: Just one-third make up the popular Trumpian stereotype of working-class white voters, while one-third are white college graduates, and the remainder are nonwhite."
njour.nl/s/707162?unloc…
These persuadable voters "identified as economically progressive—supporting higher taxes for the wealthy, a higher minimum wage, and mandated paid family leave—but held markedly conservative positions on a wide array of social and cultural issues."
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Read 5 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
5 Jun
NPR-Marist poll:

56% of registered voters believe police behaving appropriately or not aggressively enough

Only 34% believe police too aggressive.

maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/upl…
... asked whether demonstrations are better characterized as protests or riots,

61% said protests
31% said riots
Among Dems: 37% believe police behaved appropriately or not aggressively enough

55% believe police too aggressive

Republicans united, Dems divided on this issue.
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
30 May
Bottoms viral speech is giving space for (white) more-pragmatic Dems in the Biden orbit to speak up...
(ex:

)
But note that Bottoms' perspective was the outlier, at least as of Saturday morning.

Val Demings and Stacey Abrams took the exact opposite tack.

Other prominent Dems were surprisingly muted on the issue of rioting, incl. Obama himself.
Read 4 tweets

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