Thread by @C_Ups17

1/ Covid-19 disproportionately affects the elderly, right?
A large majority of deaths are in LTC and other elderly, right?
So, you'd expect that 2020 would show a greater % of overall deaths in older age groups, right?
But that's not what we've seen...
#COVID19Ontario

2/ The proportion of deaths in Ontario up to August is THE SAME as it usually is. Check out the chart. There was a larger difference between '16-'17 than '19-'20. Does that make any sense?
The next chart shows why...
#COVID19Ontario

3/ Deaths in the elderly surged over normal levels during the peak of the first wave. And then, proceeded to drop below normal levels in the Summer. Could one say that those elderly who died, simply died several weeks earlier than they would have without Covid? #COVID19Ontario

4/ Looking at cumulative deaths, the surge followed by the drop seen in 3 resulted in a normal number of deaths by the end of the Summer.
But isn't it inhumane to allow seniors to die prematurely, even if only by weeks? ...
#COVID19Ontario

5/ Absolutely! Those responsible for the poor care of our seniors should be held to account. On the positive side, it appears that the drop in deaths more than 'made up for' the surge during the peak. Perhaps due to LTC improvements and PH measures?...
#COVID19Ontario

6/ Were the measures, lockdowns in particular, too severe? I estimate that there were 394 more than normal age 65+ deaths in the peak surge. By the reasoning above, I'm estimating that each lost 15 weeks of lifespan. This equates to 114 years lost due to Covid... #COVID19Ontario

7/ So, if we estimate that 114 years of life of those age 65+ were lost, and measures taken 'made up for' those 114 years to get back to a normal number of deaths (see #4), that must mean the policy was good, right?...
#COVID19Ontario

8/ What if the cost of those measures turns out to be greater than those 114 yrs? Let's say lockdown triggered mental health consequences that lead to shorter lifespans + suicides. Conceivable right? Only 2 suicides in 20 yr olds could easily equal 114 yrs lost...
#COVID19Ontario

9/ What about declines in lifespan due to postponed medical care, poverty, substance abuse, stress, etc. triggered by lockdown? These could easily dwarf the 114 years saved. And now as we are well into the second wave...
#COVID19Ontario

10/ Well into the second wave, deaths are much lower than in the first wave. I'd say we can expect much fewer excess deaths vs wave 1. However, public health measures are becoming increasingly stringent...
#COVID19Ontario

11/ Lock downs are threatening businesses, mental health, physical health, and our economy for years, decades, to come. The cure appears to be worse than the disease.
#COVID19Ontario

12/12 I welcome criticism of this analysis. Even I, who have been anti-lockdown for some time, was surprised by how inappropriate our current PH policy is when though of this way. Have I made any errors in thinking?
Thanks for reading. Be well.