1/6
As I discussed in my FT article yesterday, Xi Jinping is right to say that it can only hope to double GDP by 2035 if it "distributes the fruits of development more fairly." Unless there is a massive redistribution of the income share of...
scmp.com/economy/china-…
As I discussed in my FT article yesterday, Xi Jinping is right to say that it can only hope to double GDP by 2035 if it "distributes the fruits of development more fairly." Unless there is a massive redistribution of the income share of...
scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/6
GDP, doubling real GDP would require more than tripling the country's real debt, in which case the debt burden itself would almost certainly prevent the economy from doubling.
ft.com/content/8cc6f9…
GDP, doubling real GDP would require more than tripling the country's real debt, in which case the debt burden itself would almost certainly prevent the economy from doubling.
ft.com/content/8cc6f9…
3/6
The problem for China is that while by now everyone agrees about what needs to be done, they perhaps don't understand the extent of the redistribution needed. Between 80% and 100% of the growth in GDP over the next fifteen years must accrue...
The problem for China is that while by now everyone agrees about what needs to be done, they perhaps don't understand the extent of the redistribution needed. Between 80% and 100% of the growth in GDP over the next fifteen years must accrue...
4/6
to ordinary households if China is to rebalance its economy sufficiently by the end of the period, and even then this would involve a sharp worsening of the debt burden for the first several years.
to ordinary households if China is to rebalance its economy sufficiently by the end of the period, and even then this would involve a sharp worsening of the debt burden for the first several years.
5/6
it's possible to do it in principle, in other words, but the scale will be politically difficult to pull off and will probably require a total transformation of the role and power of local governments. Perhaps that transformation has already started to happen over the...
it's possible to do it in principle, in other words, but the scale will be politically difficult to pull off and will probably require a total transformation of the role and power of local governments. Perhaps that transformation has already started to happen over the...
6/6
past 8 years as Xi worked to re-centralize power, but so far this has mostly occurred in ways (e.g. the ballooning provincial debt) that create a different set of problems to resolve.
The next five years are going to be gripping.
past 8 years as Xi worked to re-centralize power, but so far this has mostly occurred in ways (e.g. the ballooning provincial debt) that create a different set of problems to resolve.
The next five years are going to be gripping.
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