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Rob Lee

@RALee85

25 Nov

https://twitter.com/KCH_Jans/status/1331205557856985090

Since I'm seeing a number of people tweet this article, I'm gonna type up a thread listing some errors, questionable conclusions, and weak sources. There are many important lessons from this conflict, and this article draws some wrong ones.

https://twitter.com/KCH_Jans/status/1331205557856985090

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1207775509633011720

First, the article states that "Armenia had just received eight Su-30 interceptors from Russia this summer". Armenia received its first 4 Su-30SM in December 2019. As far as I'm aware, they haven't received anymore though there were plans for 8 more. 2/

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1207775509633011720

I haven't seen evidence that Russia forced Armenia to ground its Su-30SM. Instead, if Armenia had used these 4 fighters, they likely would have been shot down by Turkey's F-16s or Azer air defenses. Plus, Armenian officials claimed that their Su-30SM never received missiles. 3/

Read 23 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

23 Nov

Last week the Odintsovo Project 22800 Karakurt small missile ship (serial # 253) was commissioned into the Baltic Fleet's 36th Missile Boat Brigade from the Pella Shipyard. The Odintsovo is the first Karakurt and Russian ship with the Pantsir-M AD system.

The Odintsovo, formerly called the Shkval, was laid down in July 2016 and launched in May 2018. It is Russia's and the Pella Shipyard's 3rd Karakurt MRK. The Mytishchi and Sovetsk were commissioned in December 2018 and October 2019, respectively. 2/
bmpd.livejournal.com/4192251.html

The Pella Shipyard is also building the Burya (serial # 257), Kozelsk (serial # 254), Okhotsk (serial # 255), and Vikhr (serial # 256) the latter 3 of which had the hulls built by the More Shipyard in Feodosia, Crimea. 3/
bmpd.livejournal.com/4192251.html

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

23 Nov

The Russian MoD says that the VDV's 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division will receive ~60 BMD-4M and BTR-MDM Rakushka armored vehicles on Wednesday. A standard battalion set is 31 BMD-4M and 8 BTR-MDM, so 60 is larger than normal.
function.mil.ru/for_media/even…

Photos of the ceremony for the VDV's 7th Mountain Air Assault Division as it accepts a battalion set of BMD-4M and BTR-MDM armored vehicles today. All of the servicemen received 2 months of training on the vehicles at the VDV's 242nd Training Center. 2/
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…

The obligatory blessing from a priest. 3/

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

16 Nov

There is no evidence that TB2 destroyed S-300 or S-400 systems in Syria (we would know), and there is no evidence that Anka-S are in Libya. You also need to mention that plenty of TB2 were shot down by Pantsir-S1 (and probably Buk-M2E) in Syria and Libya.
rferl.org/a/technology-t…

Modern Russian air defense systems like the Pantsir and Tor can shoot down TB2, but they can also be destroyed by TB2, particularly when operating alone. Training matters as do supporting assets (medium-range AD systems, electronic warfare, C2, radar, etc.)

The TB2 is a very effective system, particularly because it is cheap and its losses are sustainable, but if you send TB2 by themselves against an integrated air defense system like a Russian Ground Forces tank or motorized rifle division, they will get shot down.

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

31 Oct

NATO militaries need a plan to defeat loitering munitions. It is only a matter of time until our forces face them in combat, not just the modified COTS UAVs ISIS used.

Loitering munitions are becoming easier and cheaper to build. Iranian EFPs delivered to proxies were a huge issue in Iraq, ATGMs were critical for rebel groups fighting in Syria, and loitering munitions could well be the weapons of choice for proxies in a future conflict. 2/

I think it is worth watching Russia's development of the Derivatsiya-PVO SHORAD system with a 57mm cannon on a BMP-3 chassis. It will be equipped with proximity fuze munitions for countering UAVs, and its 57mm cannon can be used effectively against ground targets. 3/

Read 4 tweets