There were cries of “betrayal!” after the election when Benjamin Netanyahu called to speak with Joe Biden.
However, when we take a closer look at the situation, we see there is something more subtle going on.
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In 2016, Trump spoke to Netanyahu the day after the election. In contrast, Biden spoke to the leades of our major European allies, Asia-Pacific allies and even the Pope before he spoke to Netanyahu (Biden also waited to speak to the US’s Sunni allies ).
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There is even some reason to believe Biden may have spoken to the President of Israel before he spoke to Netanyahu.
Obviously Netanyahu and Biden said all the right things about “working together” after their conversation, but beneath the surface both men are highly suspicious of each other.
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While a Biden administration may be more hospitable to Netanyahu than Obama’s (Obama and Bibi HATED each other), there is little reason to believe he would prefer a Biden presidency to a Trump White House that includes the likes of Jared Kushner and Mike Pompeo.
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Speaking of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, last week he visited Netanyahu in Israel.
Among the topics discussed was “countering Iran’s malign influence.
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From there, Pompeo visited the UAE where once again the topic of countering Iran was discussed.
Further cooperation between Israel and the Sunni allies, for one.
(Pompeo also visited Turkey on this trip. He did not meet with Erdogan. Erodgan, however, was one of the last leaders of a NATO ally to call Biden with his congratulations)
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While all these developments are occurring on the diplomatic front, there was also a major shakeup going on in the Pentagon.
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POTUS fired his Secretary of Defense Mark Esper as well as several other DOD officials and elevated “his people” to more prominent roles. Those promoted included Chris Miller, Ezra Cohen-Watnik, Kash Patel and Michael Ellis.
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These are names that are often associated with Congressman Devin Nunes and Mike Flynn.
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Patel quietly traveled to Damascus last month.
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My guess about what is going on here is that Trump is clearing the way for increased communication between Defense Intelligence and counterparts in Israel and the Sunni states, bypassing other intelligence agencies
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It should be emphasized that is completely within the prerogative of Donald Trump as the President and Commander and Chief. Israel and the Sunni states are American allies after all.
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What is troubling is that the president doesn’t feel he can trust the other intelligence agencies or the Pentagon bureaucracy to properly carry out his orders without undermining him.
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So Trump is assembling a team that more resembles his initial National Security Council (NSC).
In his 60 Minutes interview, H R McMaster said there were two opposing groups while he was in the White House.
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The “narrow” group is an obvious reference to Trump initial NSC under the leadership of Flynn, which McMaster believes was too narrowly focused on the Middle East.
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The group that McMaster said wanted to save the world from President Trump was headed, I suspect, by Generals Kelly and Mattis.
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Of course McMaster is biased, but I think his view is helpful in understanding the direction Trump is headed....and who he trusts.
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So what could be in the works?
As stated previously, first and firstmost are improved relations between Israel and the Sunni states.
The more they are united, the better they will be able to resist a potential Biden’s administration’s attempts at reviving the Iran Deal.
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An extreme option: Israel and its Sunni allies may decide to attack an Iranian nuclear reactor while Trump is still in office. This will immediately handcuff the incoming administration and set US/Iran relations back many years.
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I’m not saying it would be the wisest decision, but I wouldn’t rule it out. If they genuinely view Iran as an existential threat to their existence, what would be off the table?
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Another issue that could be exploited is the Biden’s administration’s lack of legitimacy. Half of the country doesn’t believe he won.
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Anything to further shake the foundation of his presidency will make him unlikely to act boldly, especially on a controversial issue like the Iran Deal.
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What they could do to bring further doubt on the result of the elections, I don’t know. The Israelis are the best in the world at cyber-warfare.
Perhaps my favorite scenario is this one put forward by a former Pentagon official in the Obama administration
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McKeon knows what he’s talking about. He’s an attorney and former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense.
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“DECLASSY EVERYTHING!”
Nah, you know that’s not going to happen.
But I suspect a selective declassification is underway by “his people.”
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I believe Trump has his team determining what information could be declassified without embarrassing Israel and the Sunni states.
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And such potentially embarrassing information does exist. For instance, the conversation between Flynn and Kislyak over the UN vote damaging to Israel is still completely redacted. That is what we know of. There is probably more.
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But there is much more redacted information showing that Russiagate was a hoax, put in place by the Obama administration, designed to hinder the incoming Trump administration’s ability to pursue Trump's desired foreign policy objectives.
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Whether Trump will pull the trigger on declass or not has yet to be determined. But he wants the option.
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Declassification would make Trump the ultimate whistleblower.
Now, I don’t believe that a former President who received 73 million votes in the last election is in danger of getting locked up anytime soon.
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After all, there are Boomers on Rush Limbaugh show saying he’s ready to die for Trump. Charging Trump with a crime would amount to national suicide
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Nevertheless, Claiming whistleblower status is just one more layer of protection against a vengeful Establishment.
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Those are some things to look for over the next few weeks.
IF a Biden administration enters the White House, they should expect some unwelcome surprises.
An eye for and eye, a tooth for a tooth.
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END
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The Importance of Momentum in Politics (or What I Learned from President Trump)
a thread
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One of the more amusing aspects of twitter is that a person gains a modest following and suddenly he/she is qualified to tell Trump what he needs to do to win.
But Trump just received over 73 million votes (and counting) for President of the United States.
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Maybe we should be asking what political lessons can we learn from him.
Personally, what Trump has taught me about electoral politics, more than anything, is the necessity of momentum.