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25 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Not going to discuss this tomorrow but have u seen the fertility rate in Korea? Epic low! Lowest in the OECD! Did u know that it's only 0.92 in 2019 & down from 0.98 in 2018.

Need 2.1 to maintain the same population. Guess wut? No Covid baby boom either!
koreatimes.co.kr/www/culture/20…
As 2019 was a bad year for South Korean fertility, 2020 so far has been abysmal despite South Koreans staying at home more. Child births in September 2020 are lower and ytd is -8.8%YoY.

Marriage fell, divorce up, fertility lower & deaths rising faster! 👶🏻🇰🇷!

Got Korean babies?
U may ask what is the Korean gov doing to encourage procreation in the peninsula. Well, well, the tax credit is not generous at all! Only USD135 for 1st child & that jumps to +270 for the 3rd kid.

US is 1,500 per child. PAY PEOPLE TO HAVE KIDS!!! Massive tax cut + baby dividend!
Japan fertility rate is 1.36 >👶🏻
South Korea fertility rate is 0.92 & falling! <👶🏻😱

Japan is now removing income caps for fertility treatment as it wants to raise the fertility rate. South Korea needs to add more economic incentive to make babies ASAP!
japantoday.com/category/natio…

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
23 Nov
Start & finish are two different things. The question is production & distribution of vaccines & that means the reach of the vaccines to get to the 70% of the population needed to get herd immunity. The math right now tells us that we're looking at a solution that takes time.
Comparison of the 2 vaccines (Pfizer just updated that it's 95% too) so both good results but details tell you that we need to over come the following:

*Production
*Distribution.

Let's discuss those issues!
Pfizer: 50m does by 2nd 2020 & 1.3bn in 2021.
For Moderna: 20m by end 2020 & 500m-1bn.

Meaning that we're likely to get 70m by end 2020 & have to wait for 2021 to get somewhere between 1.8bn to 1.3bn.

These vaccines require 2 dosages. Priority will be healthcare + elderly.
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
17 Nov
What lessons can we learn from Covid-19? For one, let's look at who it kills. We start with race & most excess deaths:

White (red line = 2020 & grey previous years): share of population is highest but also look at the excess deaths or red - white

Black also high &

Hispanic
By disease & I will show you later why the race & disease factors are related, organized by highest excess deaths:

Heart disease (lifestyle, elderly & obvs genetics)
Alzheimer & dementia (elderly disease)
By age excess deaths (red = 2020 & grey = 2015 to2019) & organized by most excess deaths:

>85 or older excess deaths rather high
>75 also high
>65 also high
& even
>45

Less than 44 seem ok esp <25. Okay, what are the lessons here?
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
17 Nov
Good morning!!! Today is 17 November & the USA has 2 vaccines that have great results! 🇺🇸🔥 And so more of risk-on!!!

*Dollar down
*Equities up!
Details:

*Both are mRNA vaccines, a brand-new tech. Not made w/ Covid
*Both vaccines require 2 shots, given several weeks apart.
*US hope to have about 20 mn Moderna doses &another 20m of Pfizer & German partner BioNTech to use in late December
*>65 likely to have priority.
Both Russia & China have deployed their vaccines to people without finishing the final trial. So you ask, what's the difference b/n the US & China vaccines?

*China uses old tech: use a dead version of the Sars-CoV-2 virus rather than more advanced techniques deployed elsewhere
Read 8 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
16 Nov
We know with absolutely certainty that we will be 30 years older by 2050. And guess what? The world is going to be pretty aged except for few pockets such as South Asia, the Stans, and Africa.

Here is the question relevant for economics & politic, ready?
If the share of the elderly rises, then political power of the elderly would rise as they got vote & in a democracy vote = power.

So if we want the future to belong to the young & not the elderly to support growth, then shouldn't we weight votes?
In Japan, as the share of the elderly rises, the silvered Japanese gets more political power & that is economic power.

Society becomes sensitive to the elderly (more toilets, robots to help them live longer, & vote against noisy day care of kids etc) at the expense of the young.
Read 8 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
16 Nov
Agreed w/ Emmanuel Macron. Wasn't the NYT criticized recently for making up stories about ISIS etc? What the the media business model care about isn't the objective truth but the political direction of society its want to push to pander to the core readership, for better or worse
Here is a thread on George Orwell famous essay on the Freedom of the Press, which was what he wanted as a preface to 1984 but edited out because it attacked the press.

American trust in Mass Media in 2020 vs 2019 (btw, people talk about Trump & Congress polling poorly should see the press polling):

Total trust has gone down for all US adults in 2020 from 2019 to only 9% of total sample polled.

None at all went UP to 33% from 28% of total.
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
12 Nov
Another great vote by California on Proposition 19. To understand this, we must go back to Prop 13, which basically is property tax in CA that's 1-2% of purchase value per yr (yes, pretty high) & the increase is capped by inflation.

Means older owners pay less taxes than new.
As property prices in California go up by double digits but inflation by less, then the assessed value of the property & the tax rate is not AT MARKET VALUE.

Low property taxes = inventive to not sell ur house & move b/c u'll get taxed on 1-2% of market price vs price ages ago.
So what? The unfair thing is this, say your parents were just teachers but they bought a house in Malibu say 40 years ago when it was dirt cheap & now worth say 50 million dollars. Before Prop 19, u'd inherit their cheap tax rate too & that's rather unfair as new buyers pay more.
Read 6 tweets

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