Context: The excess deaths are real and unmistakable. To the extent that the quoted claims are based on deaths among the elderly being about in their normal proportion, this is unsurprising—the virus kills all ages, but skews old, just like all deaths do.
To reiterate, there are over 300,000 excess deaths. Not clear to me whether it was written up sloppily, or the econ masters candidate made an error, but the proposition that no additional people have died this year is flatly incorrect. cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
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Context: While the apparent CFR (case fatality rate) might be nearly 3%, the *infection* fatality rate is significantly lower because many cases are not diagnosed. The CDC estimated an IFR of 0.65%.
This would still be a huge additional death toll. Even under a more conservative figure of 0.4%, "deaths until herd immunity" is a grizzly policy recommendation. Which is why this response is also a bad take:
New thread consolidating all the “only 6%” takes inspired by this misinformation, introduced to Twitter by a QAnon follower 2 days ago. I’m creating this thread because there are *so many* 6% takes, and I don’t want them to overwhelm all other content.
This earlier thread explains why it’s wrong. Basically: CDC changed nothing, deaths are much higher than normal, and most common conditions are pneumonia and respiratory failure—caused by COVID! Lots o’ folks have hypertension, diabetes & are obese too.
I don’t remember another single lie spreading this fast before. Undoubtedly it was helped by Donald Trump’s retweet. (Both the original and therefore this retweet were removed by Twitter yesterday.)
The “just 6%” takes flooding this site are dumb. MASTER TREAD 🧵
CDC didn’t change anything.
No change to CDC # of deaths.
In fact, 187,000 dead underestimates #.
Over 200,000 excess deaths occurred.
People with comorbities still died of COVID.
Most Americans have conditions.
1. The claim that the CDC “quietly updated” its reporting to “admit” that “only 6% … actually died from Covid” is top-to-bottom nonsense originating from QAnon theorist, which has spread to lots of people. forbes.com/sites/brucelee…
2. In the first place, the comorbities have been listed on the CDC’s weekly coronavirus page since May 11 (archive link), and were available elsewhere even earlier. There has been no change to the prose, just more data added (said 7% in May). web.archive.org/web/2020051112…
Context: No, in the first place, that's been on the CDC website forever. Here it is in May. But dishonest folks get more likes by saying it's new. web.archive.org/web/2020053001…
More important, people with comorbidities are dying because of COVID and not diabetes or obesity (the most common comorbitdies). We know this because a lot more people have died this year.