The CDC held a press briefing on 11/19, and it's fairly stunning to see the misinformation they're propagating. Remember this when someone wants to hold the CDC up as a reliable source:

1/6
cdc.gov/media/releases…
"THERE IS SIMPLY NO MORE IMPORTANT TIME THAN NOW FOR EACH AND EVERY AMERICAN TO RE-DOUBLE OUR EFFORTS TO WATCH OUR DISTANCE, WASH OUR HANDS AND MOST IMPORTANTLY WEAR A MASK. MORE AND MORE SCIENTIFIC DATA IS SHOWING THAT MASKS CAN PROVIDE SOME PROTECTION TO THE WEARER."

2/6
Just look at the over-the-top language... "no more important time," "re-double our efforts," "more and more scientific data." There is nothing precise here until they say masks CAN provide protection. "More and more" data that they CAN?

3/6
Walke mentions the MMWR report on mask use in Arizona: "as they put in their local policies related to use of masks, you saw a decrease in cases."

@ianmSC has posted some information contradicting the CDC's conclusions:


4/6
Later Walke says "we're seeing exponential growth in cases."

It's disturbing that a CDC Incident Manager does not understand what "exponential" means, but COVID cases are not growing exponentially. They always follow a curve similar to a Gompertz curve.

5/6
An NPR reporter asks whether the CDC has data to back their warning about small household gatherings. Answer: "IT’S A GOOD QUESTION. AND FRANKLY IT’S A HARD ONE TO STUDY... WE’RE STILL LOOKING INTO THIS. WE’RE STILL STUDYING THE SORT OF OVERALL IMPACT OF SMALL GATHERINGS"

6/6

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More from @jhaskinscabrera

28 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/28/20

Florida reported a net of 79 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 44 different days, going back to August 7.

Changes by month: August (+12), September (+13), October (+6), November (+49-1)

#RationalGround

1/7 Image
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 77
Minimum age: 27
Maximum age: 100
82% are 65 or older

2/7 Image
Additions and deletions by date:

11/27 - 2
11/26 - 4
11/25 - 2
11/24 - 1
11/23 - 2
11/22 - 3
11/21 - 4
11/20 - 4
11/19 - 4
11/18 - 3
11/17 - 4
11/16 - 1
11/15 - 4
11/13 - 1
11/12 - 2
11/9 - 1
11/8 - removed 1
11/7 - 2
11/6 - 1
11/5 - 1
11/4 - 1
11/2 - 1
11/1 - 1
(cont.)

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
27 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/27/20

Florida reported a net of 109 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 53 different days, going back to August 3.

Changes by month: August (+16), September (+28), October (+12), November (+57-4)

#RationalGround

1/8 Image
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/8
Peaks are 7/30-31 (234) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (226).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
27 Nov
Cochrane has published an intervention review of physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses

Politicians are telling us that "we know masks work" and that we could "defeat" COVID if we only complied - but this shows NO EVIDENCE OF THAT.

1/7
"Moderate certainty evidence that wearing a mask probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of [flu] compared to not wearing a mask... Harms were rarely measured and poorly reported."

2/7
Quarantine led to fewer infections at work but more infections in households.

No RCTs on eye protection, gowns and gloves, or screening at entry ports.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
26 Nov
Some things to point out in this story, which is intended to get people to "behave" and wear masks:

gainesville.com/story/news/202…

1/5
"They are residents at UF Health Shands Hospital — where they say the ICU is filling with COVID-19 patients"

You can see here that there are 40 beds (15.38% of capacity) available right now:
bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/…

2/5
"About 70 percent of Shands’ overall patients are from outside the county."

How does that square with the idea that irresponsible students will lead to the ICU filling up?

3/5
Read 5 tweets
25 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/25/20

Florida reported a net of 97 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 39 different days, going back to July 3.

Changes by month: July (-1), August (+4), September (+15), October (+8), November (+71)

#RationalGround

1/8 Image
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/8
Peaks are 7/30-31 (234) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (226).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
24 Nov
Florida Deaths - 11/24/20

Florida reported a net of 72 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 30 different days, going back to April 27.

Changes by month: April (+1), May (+1), July (+2), August (+1), September (+2), October (+6-1), November (+61-1)

#RationalGround
1/7 Image
The "net" is the difference between today's total deaths and yesterday's total deaths, but each day's total is also the sum of additions and removals on that date.

For example, if 2 new deaths are reported on a date, that could be because 3 were added and 1 was removed

2/7
Peaks are 7/30 (235) & 8/4 (237); the 7-day moving average peak is 8/5 (226).

The plateau at the peak between 7/25 and 8/7 has been stable since August 27.

Here's the full chart for context:

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets

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