1/ There's a bit to unpack here but China's intended outcome for Taiwan is not annexation and elimination of local independence or even 1c2s
2/ Most serious Chinese planners acknowledge that ROC people see themselves as culturally distinct and morally superior to mainland Chinese
3/ That makes a full on post-op reconstruction difficult in terms of hearts and minds
4/ Instead many Chinese discussions on Taiwan have three main objectives, none of which have much to do with the hearts and minds of ROC citizens at all
5/ First, China wants the fabs to stop sanctioning Chinese companies or favoring Western IC design cos like Apple QCOM or Nvidia over Chinese ones
6/ Second, China wants to flip the SIGINT equipment to face in the opposite direction, ie watch transpacific traffic for the MSS instead of the NSA and radar tracks for the PLAAF instead of the USAF
7/ Third, China wants the ROCAF and ROCN facilities for hosting of Chinese subs, carriers, naval aviation, and IRBMs, to exert control over JP sea lanes
8/ The cultural or political stuff doesn't matter much. China could care less about what TV shows TW wants to watch or which political party gets to feed at the trough
9/ China might even entertain TW participation in international fora once those three objectives are established
10/ This position might seem very strange given the NSL in HK, but that's because HK is a financial entrepot with many links to Xis anti corruption campaign, not a military and technology outpost, so China's required level of control of HK is much higher
11/ For the average TW person the Chinese presence would be about as visible as the US military presence in Turkey - that is to say, invisible to 99% of the population
12/ But wait, you might say, Xi hasn't offered anything close to this on Taiwan. You're right. This is because TW was not a problem for China from 2000 through 2016 so why would China change tack?
13/ But now, Taiwan has China's full attention, and China is going to put its full effort to solving the TW problem once and for all. Step one in that process is assessing ends and means, especially day 2 once the Tsai regime is removed from power.
14/ The simplest day 2 China will do is to likely have an independent or even DPP politician take over after a quick lightweight operation, let the protests play out, quietly get rid of US/JP agents on the island, and lock down the strategic assets
End/ Operation Taiwan won't resemble an annexation at all. For the average TW person, their life will remain the same. Hence concern over a Chinese invasion is unwarranted imo, not because it is unlikely, but because it would be mostly harmless for the average TWnese

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with The Daily Mao

The Daily Mao Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TheDailyMao

25 Nov
1/ The Overton window on China is ruthlessly enforced with donor cash... the majority of 'China Watchers' are barely above water while they pay down NoVa / DC mortgages or rent
2/ It's also enforced via access to current and former officials, which help a great deal in maintaining DC blyat. There is large and tensely wound web that drives the conversation
3/ In addition to be ruthlessly enforced, the window is narrow because the main funders of that ecosystem - Taiwan, Japan, Big Tech, defense cos, Pentagon - are all on the same page, especially re tech (except Wall St but their influence is much weaker with near-constant QE)
Read 6 tweets
14 Nov
1/ A new Biden admin should take the opportunity to stabilize US-China relations before Trump's policies push it into a new Cold War. The foremost policy to change is America's sanctions on Huawei.
2/There's a lot of noise from industry lobbies and the IC resisting such a move, but in truth, the Huawei sanctions at best harm America's long-term interests for a purported and unclear short-term benefit, and at worst risk generational conflict.
3/ With that being said, let's begin by looking at how the sanctions got started. SIGINT + 5G was the major driver of the Huawei sanctions: smh.com.au/business/compa…
Read 48 tweets
30 Oct
Been meaning to post this for a while, but (former professor and noted China skeptic) Christopher Balding may have just ruined the career of a veteran CIA agent (and destroyed an Agency op) in the last 24 hours

1/
Most of you are probably aware by now of the Aspen dossier detailing supposed Chinese influence ops targeting the Biden family that Balding disseminated, but in case you're not, here is the NBC article which details the mess

2/
nbcnews.com/tech/security/…
This sorry episode shows 3 actions demonstrating an escalating level of bad judgment from our resident China Hawk / self-proclaimed secret agent. First, he decided to wade into partisan politics with this report, which, even if it was right, would piss off half of the US...

3/
Read 32 tweets
27 Oct
Actually, when the history of the New Cold War is written, they will remember Matt Pottinger as the DNSA who ran America's initial COVID response and focused 100% of his energy on using COVID to bash China's system (instead of trying to shore up America's defenses)

1/
From the CGP - Matt Pottinger and Robert O'Brien ran America's initial COVID response from January to at least January 31. Key text below: Pottinger understood this was the NSC's moment to repair its damaged reputation (thanks to Bolton deleting the NSC biodefense team)

2/
At least January 31, since, according to this March 30 WaPo article from Pottinger's close friend Josh Rogin, Pottinger was in charge of the COVID-19 meetings until at least late February

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

3/
Read 11 tweets
13 Oct
lmao this assertion is wrong on 3 levels

First, China hasn't done a "hardline switch", because that implies political liberalization was the status quo when it definitely wasn't. China has been, is, and will be a Leninist state, and any recent shift is simply mean reversion

1/n
In fact, the China of 09 was an aberration: it had top-level leadership (Hu/Wen) who wanted more liberalization when most of the Party didn't, and it pumped so much stimulus it helped reflate the entire global economy (when China has historically been quite parsimonious)

2/n
I was in China then. I saw 1st-hand how Chinese banks and SOEs saved GE/JPN toolmakers, Korean electronics companies, US banks, and Western govts and corporates in general - and while letting Western NGOs flourish and engage with Chinese civil society.

3/n
Read 31 tweets
26 Sep
Couple things to add here: this came right after Keith Krach visited Taiwan, where he discussed 'realigning supply chains' with both Tsai Ing-Wen and TSMC head Morris Chang. US policy is now to 1) protect TSMC vs Chinese competitors and 2) regulate who TSMC can sell to

1/n
The US will then use carrots (continued US subsidies, orders from US cos like QCOM AAPL NVDA) and the stick of 'protecting' against TSMC's Chinese competition to control TSMC by proxy.

The US wants China to set up substitutes to TSMC. That makes their stick more credible.

2/n
With TSMC firmly in the US orbit, the US believes it can then control the global diffusion of other technology such as 5G, AI, AR/VR, driverless cars, and robotics, as all of them benefit from leading-edge semicon fab capabilities

3/n
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!