The UK government have just published the evidence on the transmission risk in the hospitality sector - GOV.UK gov.uk/government/pub…
I haven’t read it all yet, but it appears to be broken into three parts.

I’ve highlighted (below) one section from each of those three main parts showing (top line) issues with the evidence.

Once I’ve read it all I will discuss further.
“disinhibitory effects of alcohol are *likely* to exacerbate difficulties with social distancing.”

“Data from epidemiological analysis of outbreaks in *Japan, China, South Korea, and Indonesia* noted that their largest superspreading events were...”

“*statistical correlation*”
The *annotations* are there to show the main problems I see with the way this evidence is being used.

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More from @DavidVidecette

27 Nov
First of all, lets look at the evidence base they've used for this.

The claim: "An analysis of 3,184 cases in Japan identified 61 case-clusters that were observed in healthcare and other care facilities, restaurants and bars, workplaces, and music events."
Why are 'Workplaces' and 'Healthcare Facilities' included here? They don't breakdown the findings of the Japanese study.

Its published here though:

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…

The study took place in Japan between January & April 2020 - surely things have moved on since then?
Read 29 tweets
5 Aug
The Ammonium Nitrate at Beirut Port was there due to a complex legal dispute. A story of the legal wranglings is on shiparrested.com

On 23/9/2013 a ship called the Rhosus, flying the Moldovian flag, sailed from Batumi Port, Georgia heading to Biera in Mozambique...
The Rhosus was carrying 2,750 tons of Ammonium Nitrate.

En route to Mozambique, the Rhosus got into technical difficulties, forcing it to enter Beirut Port. Upon inspection of the vessel by Port State Control at Beirut, the vessel was forbidden from sailing further.
Most of the crew were repatriated shortly afterwards. The Rhosus was abandoned by her owners after charterers and those shipping the cargo lost interest in the Ammonium Nitrate.

The remaining crew on the Rhosus and Master quickly ran out of stores and provisions.
Read 7 tweets
11 May
On this day in 1812, Spencer Perceval became the only British Prime Minister ever to be assassinated.
On an otherwise unremarkable Monday afternoon at about a quarter past five, Perceval entered the lobby of the House of Commons on his way into the chamber

A man, who had been sitting quietly by the fireplace stood up, walked towards the prime minister, and shot him in the chest
Perceval, on being shot, staggered backward.

“Oh! Murder! Murder!” he exclaimed, before collapsing, dead.

His corpse was then carried into the Secretary’s Room.

This incredibly detailed account of events and the scene is held by National Archives:
Read 12 tweets
5 Apr
This is the moment The Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem was closed due to Coronavirus.

Last time this happened was in 1349, during The Black Death, a bubonic plague pandemic.

What’s fascinating about this story is the guy with the keys.
The church is in the Christian Quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem. Within its complex it is said to contain the two holiest sites in Christianity; the site where Jesus was crucified, and the empty tomb, where he is said to have been buried and then resurrected.
The site, which has existed in one form or another since the 4th century, is occupied by a number of rival Christian denominations. These denominations often don’t agree with each other and conflict has been a recurring feature among them during its history.
Read 8 tweets
3 Jan
Much of the talk about yesterday’s drone strike has been focused on Qasem Soleimani, somewhat missing the other significant individuals with him in his convoy, and in doing so, missing why this convoy was such a threat.

Also in the convoy was Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
al-Muhandis helped form Kata'ib Hezbollah, a powerful paramilitary entity that had been actively involved in the protests at the US embassy in Baghdad

The group were active in the Iraqi civil war against coalition forces & more latterly against ISIS, again backed by Iran.
But al-Muhandis is better known for the work he did in the 1980s, particularly towards United States embassies.

On 12 December 1983, two months after the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing, a series of terrorist attacks took place in Kuwait.
Read 5 tweets
15 Sep 19
Love how everyone is getting bent out of shape because Guy Verhofstadt is claiming we need an EU empire...

It's not new, he's been saying this since 2015, well before the referendum.

What's alarming is he's saying it at a Lib Dem Conference, and being loudly cheered for it.
This really isn't anything new for the EU, not at all, and if you think it is, you've not been paying any attention:

The election of Jean-Claude Junker as commission president was said to a 'crucial step' towards United States of Europe in 2014.

theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/opini…
And the incoming President of the European Commision, who will take over from Junker, Ursula von der Leyen, said this in 2011:

"My goal is the United States of Europe - on the model of the federal states Switzerland, Germany or USA,"

spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
Read 4 tweets

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