Thread by @DavidVidecette

Some analysis on this then...

https://twitter.com/DavidVidecette/status/1332365762569367553

First of all, lets look at the evidence base they've used for this.

The claim: "An analysis of 3,184 cases in Japan identified 61 case-clusters that were observed in healthcare and other care facilities, restaurants and bars, workplaces, and music events."

Why are 'Workplaces' and 'Healthcare Facilities' included here? They don't breakdown the findings of the Japanese study.

Its published here though:

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…

The study took place in Japan between January & April 2020 - surely things have moved on since then?

"By investigating the epidemiologic links among cases, we identified:
30% healthcare facilities
16% Care facilities
16% restaurants or bars
13% workplaces
11% music-related events, such as live music concerts.
8% gymnasiums
3% ceremonial functions
2% transportation-related"

So the first point of note here is that this study suggests that 80% of all transmission takes place away from the hospitality industry.

The authors also say:

"Our study has some limitations. The epidemiologic investigation mostly relied on voluntary cooperation."

And

"Through case interviews, local health authorities collected demographic and epidemiologic information, such as possible source of infection and contact and travel history."

Its all done through interviews, its opinion of where the virus was contracted.

Claim: "At least 246 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been linked to nightclubs in Seoul."

Again this isn't broken down and is hard to discuss.

However, it's details can be found here:

hiqa.ie/sites/default/…

This is actually quite an interesting study because of the data they've used.

"Kang et al. conducted a retrospective cohort study investigating the exposure and spread of SARS-CoV-2 associated with five major nightclubs in Seoul, South Korea, between 30 April and 6 May 2020."

"The use of cell phone location data, credit card
records, and lists of nightclub visitors identified 5,517 people who attended at least one of these five nightclubs during this time period."

This sounds like a very helpful study - why not explain all this?

Well, here's why:

"After extensive contact tracing, it was estimated that the attack rate among nightclub visitors was 1.74%"

1.74%

The Hog Kong Claim:

"The largest clusters in Hong Kong were associated with transmission in bars and at a wedding dinner."

Again, this isn't explained, but its published here:

researchsquare.com/article/rs-340…

"Figure 1C shows the epidemic of local infections, including local sporadic and index cases, and the linked cases from clusters. Assuming that all transmission chains must ultimately lead back to the original epicenter of Wuhan, it is likely that there were missed connections..."

"...one of the most consequential physical distancing measures appears to be the work at home policy for civil servants, which was mirrored by many other institutions and private employers in February, but was lifted for the first three weeks in March."

"Coincidentally, transmissibility rose after this measure was lifted (Figure 1D), and this surge in local infections in March was associated with a number of clusters associated with gathering in restaurants and bars, the largest of which was connected to a band that played..."

"...in a number of bars across Hong Kong and the customers of those bars. As a result, the government instituted new requirements for restaurants in late March and closed all bars on 3 April (Appendix)."

"These measures together with the reinstitution of working from home from 21 March were associated with a reduction in transmissibility back down below 1. We estimated that the effectiveness of implementation of civil servants working from home was 67%...."

"...and the effectiveness of implementation of additional physical distancing measure including closure of high-risk places/facilities on March 28 was 58% (95% CrI: 15%, 99%)."

So, in the Hong Kong study the lifting and re-implantation of the work from home rule for Civil Servants took place at the same time, and its a guess that the infections occurred at the music events in the bars?

Why does the Seoul study show (with arguably a much better data set than in Hong Kong) the attack rate in their nightclubs to be 1.74%, but in Hong Kong they claim this was a major problem in their bars?

Claim: "A super-spreading event in Vietnam, including analysis using genomics, indicated 12 cases linked to transmission in a poorly ventilated bar, only four of whom had close contact with the index case."

Really?

We're including this one event in Vietnam, of all the events that have taken place across the globe, as evidence that we should shut down an entire sector of our economy?

That study is published here:

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27…

"On March 18, 2020, a 43-year old man, sought treatment at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for fever, cough, muscle aches, fatigue, and headache. A nasopharyngeal throat swab specimen taken at admission tested positive for SARS-CoV-2."

I believe this case was covered by the BBC in June:

bbc.co.uk/news/world-asi…

"It was weekend before St Patrick's Day, so Buddha Bar and Grill was packed with revelers wearing Irish fancy dress when Cameron arrived just after 22:00. "I don't drink, I largely kept myself to myself in the corner, played a few rounds of pool and went home at around 3.15am."

So, he didn't get drunk and he barely mixed with anyone, yet they want him to be the source of the outbreak?

"There seemed to be a desire to pin it on me coming from abroad..."

After reading all of this, I'm even more convinced that its wrong to scapegoat and sacrifice the hospitality industry in an effort to control Coronavirus in the UK, especially if this is the evidence.

And that's before we even get started on 'statistical correlations'

But, if you want to learn about this idiocy, might I suggest you look here:

"Does cheese consumption cause death by bedsheet? Correlation is not causation."

ki-network.blogspot.com/2015/06/does-c…