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Greg Sargent Profile picture
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27 Nov, 6 tweets, 11 min read
Why did Dems lose at least 12 House seats -- despite Biden getting 80 million votes against Trump and winning the popular vote by as much as 7 million?

I had a great chat with @Redistrict about what really happened. Some surprises you won't want to miss:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict A few highlights from our talk. First, massive Trump base turnout lifted downballot Republican congressional candidates in surprising ways: They could pocket that turnout while winning anti-Trump swing voters on top of it.

(cc @DamonLinker @lkatfield)

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict @DamonLinker @lkatfield What's more, it's not clear how much of an impact Democrats' woes among blue collar whites hurt them down-ballot. It's complicated.

Fascinating suggestions from @Redistrict on this:

(citing @EricLevitz and @davidshor)

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict @DamonLinker @lkatfield @EricLevitz @davidshor Also interesting: @AOC and "the Squad" aren't really to blame for Dem downballot losses.

More important, says @Redistrict, is Dem candidates didn't do enough to communicate *their own* stances on policing.

Great anecdote about a Biden pollster here:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict @DamonLinker @lkatfield @EricLevitz @davidshor @AOC Finally, the 2022 midterms could defy expectations, for hidden reasons:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@Redistrict @DamonLinker @lkatfield @EricLevitz @davidshor @AOC Relatedly, here's a typically great @RonBrownstein analysis that develops the fundamental points as to why Trump was not a liability for downballot Rs. With @mollyereynolds and @LPDonovan:

theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

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More from @ThePlumLineGS

Greg Sargent Profile picture
25 Nov
Michigan Republicans were offered a stark choice: Stand for the rule of law and the legitimacy of our election, or stand with Trump's efforts to overturn it. It's a bad sign for the future that so many of them felt obliged to act out the latter. New piece:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Trump will leave office. But what's so infuriating is that he will never once tell his supporters that the system has operated lawfully -- that the verdict it rendered is a legitimate one:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Awful, from @TimAlberta's report on Michigan:

The two GOP leg leaders brought counsel to meeting with Trump. They knew this scheme was on thin legal ice but went anyway.

Why? Because they worried spurning him would hurt their careers. That bodes badly:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 4 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
23 Nov
Is this how it's gonna be? Is it now a fact of our political life that Democrats must win presidential elections by cheat-proof margins to prevail? What if the rogue-elector scheme comes to be seen as just another tool of political warfare? My latest:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
To an unsettling degree, the idea that Republicans must refrain from criticizing Trump's efforts to steal the election in order to **keep the base energized** is getting treated as just another immutable fact of life about our politics:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
I talked to expert @Nedfoley about what reforms might preclude a state legislature from appointing rogue electors.

It's unclear how, as long as we have the electoral college. That leaves us relying in part on fair play.

(cc @jessewegman @julia_azari)

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 4 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
20 Nov
1) Here's a question for legal experts about Trump's ongoing efforts to steal the election.

This @SangerNYT piece gets at a key point. Trump would need *multiple* GOP state legislatures to all appoint electors in defiance of their state's popular vote:

nytimes.com/2020/11/19/us/…
@SangerNYT 2) If Trump got MI and PA to do this (which he won't), it wouldn't necessarily help him. In those states, governors (both Dems) appoint the electors.

If so, you'd have competing slates sent to Congress. As I wrote the other day, that doesn't help Trump:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
@SangerNYT 3) So @SangerNYT says Trump's only way forward it to get GA and AZ to do it (both have GOP governors). But even then he'd still need at least 1 more from a state with a Dem governor.

He needs at least 3 states to do this to get Biden's total below 270:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 10 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
19 Nov
Now that Trump is actively trying to put in motion his scheme to get GOP legislatures to help steal the election, I'm reupping this piece explaining how this whole process works and just how insanely corrupt and autocratic such an effort would have to be:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
As I note in my piece, the GOP-controlled state legislature in Pennsylvania has no current role in appointing electors. None. By state law, the governor (a Democrat) appoints them.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/… ImageImage
And GOP officials in Michigan have also explicitly clarified that they also don't have a current role in appointing electors, as @tripgabriel and @stefsaul reported:

nytimes.com/article/electo… Image
Read 5 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
14 Nov
It's surprising that anyone could look at the campaign Biden just ran and miss the degree to which it actually did internalize and act on the need to disarm Trump's version of economic populism. 1/
Biden managed the debates over China, trade, and international supply lines, by seizing on the openings provided by Trump's epic failures on all those fronts. The Covid debate, in a surprise that still hasn't been fully appreciated, created those openings. 2/
Biden also was able to manage both immigration and the racial protests without any retreat -- in fact, with the opposite of a retreat -- in a way that didn't end up causing destructive losses of white voters. If anything, they may have even helped with educated whites. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Greg Sargent Profile picture
13 Nov
* Donnie Jr. is privately urging his father not to concede

* No 2024 hopeful has dared suggest that Trump lost

* GOP elites are widely treating the refusal to concede as just another tool for motivating partisans

I think this all bodes very badly:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Amazing, from NYT:

"No prominent potential Republican candidate for president in 2024...has criticized Trump for his refusal to acquiesce to the transition of power."

This is being widely reported on as just another tactic to keep GOP voters energized:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
We're at the point where GOP elites are perfectly comfortable treating the refusal to concede in a legitimate election as just another tool for motivating partisans and for casting a cloud of illegitimacy over the rightful victor.

That seems suboptimal:

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Read 4 tweets

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