Thread by @willchamberlain

The Third Circuit just ruled on the Trump campaign's challenge in Pennsylvania

3-0 loss, opinion from three Republican-appointed judges, and written by the lone Trump-appointed judge, that has the campaign losing on basically every important point

justsecurity.org/wp-content/upl…

Campaign tried to appeal on the narrowest ground possible - whether the district court should have let them amend their complaint a second time

Leave to amend should be granted liberally

But the 3rd Circuit wasn't persuaded

Reason one why the Campaign lost - undue delay

The campaign had stressed the need to resolve the litigation by the 23rd because that was the certification deadline

Bibas writes that it can't turn around and demand time to fix its complaint now at this late date

Reason two why the Campaign lost - amending the complaint would have been futile

Basically - Bibas writes that it was simply impossible for the campaign to prevail, that nothing they alleged would have even stated a claim for relief

I'll get to this more at the end - but the Supreme Court is going to deny certiorari

This isn't a close appeal

https://twitter.com/MikeDGarrison1/status/1332398457257070592?s=20

Back to the analysis - Bibas states that even if the Campaign's proposed amendments were added to the complaint, it still wouldn't meet the Twombly/Iqbal standard of "stat[ing] a claim to relief that is plausible on its face"

Bibas also notes that the campaign has litigated and lost most of their arguments at the state level

Third big problem: the complaint tries to make an equal protection claim, but never alleges that the Trump campaign was treated differently from the Biden campaign, only that different counties handled things differently

Bibas explains that's not enough

Finally, Bibas notes the the relief proposed - stopping certification - is unprecedented, especially given that the campaign explicitly disclaimed allegations of fraud

In conclusion - this is an opinion that basically ends the litigation

The campaign can go to the Supreme Court, but it's like 99% chance that they will simply deny cert and not hear the case after an opinion like this

Why? Because the opinion has the campaign losing on so many alternative grounds

The Supreme Court would need to be persuaded that the 3rd circuit was wrong on BOTH timeliness and on the merits of the underlying claims

Don't see that happening, Bibas' analysis looks right to me

People seem to think I'm happy about this outcome

I'm not, I would love to be wrong

But I'm also a lawyer, and I'm not here to bullshit you

https://twitter.com/RNS_USA/status/1332400346308763648?s=20