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28 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
It would be profoundly stupid to abandon a state that has voted Democratic in 2 of the last 4 elections, has been single digits in all four races, has a Democratic senator, had a closely contested gubernatorial race in 2018, and where Democrats have won 3 row election since 2016.
It is true that Donald Trump was a uniquely suited politician for Ohio — his trade rhetoric appealed to white union voters.

It is also true that Ohio votes to the right of the nation, and that it is changing at the regional level in ways that helped Republicans in 2016 and 2020.
None of this means that Ohio is no longer a competitive state, though.

I feel like many people are basing their doomcasts about Ohio solely because Obama gave them unrealistic expectations about how it normally votes, when 2016 and 2020 are closer to its historical norm.
And while states like Georgia and Arizona are probably more promising investments in coming years, there are some key reasons to keep challenging the GOP in Ohio — including that we're now one seat away from taking over the state Supreme Court and abolishing gerrymandering there.

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More from @fawfulfan

Matthew Chapman Profile picture
28 Nov
I want #COVID19 relief passed immediately.

But I also think that Democrats have nothing to apologize for by blocking Mitch McConnell's proposal, because it's literally worse than nothing.
First, McConnell's refusal to offer a penny of debt relief to municipal governments — when their budget shortfall is specifically because businesses that make up the tax base are shut down by COVID — is reprehensible and is explicitly intended to cripple Democratic areas.
Second, McConnell is demanding unconditional reauthorization of PPP, which was a jungle gym of fraud and abuse and funneled billions into corporate executives' pockets while doing little to actually maintain jobs.

But the REAL dealbreaker is his so-called "liability" provisions.
Read 7 tweets
Matthew Chapman Profile picture
11 Nov
Stop saying "defund the police."

Poll after poll after poll is clear. The public supports funding social services that fill some roles police currently have, but they DON'T support defunding the police.

I don't care if you think those are the same thing. Voters don't.
There are neighborhoods in some cities where police are actually *underfunded* for their essential roles, and response times are low for people reporting crimes, accidents, etc.

Police nonresponse hurts POC as much as police brutality. Defund activists have no answer for this.
"BuT wE dOn'T lItErAlLy MeAn GeT rId Of ThE pOlIcE!"

Then find a new damn slogan, because at least some of the people chanting it with you do, in fact, literally mean that. nytimes.com/2020/06/12/opi…
Read 10 tweets
Matthew Chapman Profile picture
8 Nov
What's interesting about Minnesota is that it was a rural, "prairie-populist" state 40 years ago, back when Democrats won those kinds of states — and gradually morphed into a state of suburban white-collar professionals, just as Democrats started winning *those* kinds of states.
I can't think of any analogue for Republicans.

There's not really a state that went from heavily suburban to heavily rural, timed perfectly such that it had each makeup when it was favorable to the GOP.
Minnesota isn't usually the first state you'd think of if asked to name a blue state — you probably be more likely to say New York, California, or Massachusetts.

But since 1960, Minnesota has gone blue in more elections than any of those states!
Read 4 tweets
Matthew Chapman Profile picture
8 Nov
In my view, people are spending too much time arguing over what we could change about our policies to improve with nonwhite voters.

There's no clear evidence voters rejected our policies. There is clear evidence we lost voters because we just never went to their neighborhoods.
Like, it is fair to discuss which voters may or may not be open to progressive messaging, and how we can do a better job of disarming GOP attacks about socialism and culture wars.

But all that seems beside the point if the problem is we didn't even talk to the voters we need.
Whether or not you agree with @AOC that Dems should push more progressive messaging, she's dead right about one thing: Republicans killed us in social media. Their content spreads, ours doesn't.

They also had an edge in physical ground game because they ignored pandemic safety.
Read 5 tweets
Matthew Chapman Profile picture
27 Oct
Beyond expanding SCOTUS and lower courts, we should also establish a United States Court of the Judiciary, which has the singular task of reviewing the ethics of federal judges up to and including SCOTUS, and can order mandatory recusals and sanctions.
This isn't even a new idea. Some state court systems already have a judicial body like this.

It's how Roy Moore got fired as Chief Justice of Alabama, twice.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being one of the recommendations of Biden's proposed bipartisan judicial task force.
Read 7 tweets
Matthew Chapman Profile picture
27 Oct
The rare occasions in which use of the bully pulpit is followed by actual movement from lawmakers are usually just situations where there's already widespread grassroots anger.

Users of the bully pulpit are following political pressure, not creating it themselves.
The idea that one politician can overcome legislative math by moving public opinion with a speech is wishful thinking of the highest order. It just doesn't work like that.

Public opinion is an incredibly complicated thing and it has the momentum of a speeding freight train.
In general, it's a *good thing* that in our system, a single politician cannot generally manipulate the masses to coerce votes from lawmakers that contradict their own constituents. That would imply our whole system is shaped around personality cults.
Read 4 tweets

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