There are only around 74,000 soldiers in the British Army, as opposed to 115,000 in the French Army. No wonder US tends to ignore UK and focus on the French as their preferred military partner in Africa. nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/incr….
But even at that, the French are overextended. So its merely a matter of time before they pack up and leave much of the Sahel - or drastically scale back their operations.
If you think there's an "cavalry coming to save us from outside" - you are badly mistaken.
Truth is, we're going to have to embrace state failure. It is a fact of life in our part of the world.
As for the rest of Europe, their only interest in the Sahel is to prevent migration northwards - they will send a token force 10s - 100s, to combat it. That's all.
In contrast (to France and UK), the Turkish Army has 260,200 active personnel. Who knows? Maybe, they'll spot a geopolitical opportunity in the Sahel - but these are still early days.
But just know this, our leaders have sealed our fate - with 60 years of incompetent leadership.
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Anyone with half a brain, with any knowledge of West Africa, will tell you that France and Nigeria are DESTINED to be geopolitical rivals. In fact, over the past 60 years, relations between France & Nigeria have been "complicated", to say the least.
Nigeria is presently almost on its knees, but an English speaking nation, accounting for at least 60% of the economy of West Africa is seen by Paris as the MAJOR THREAT to its dominance of West Africa's economy (through tools like the CFA).
Realpolitik dictates that Nigeria in future will seek to "balance and contain French influence" - and a partnership with the likes of China, Russia etc. will be the logical step forward (as US Africa policy will always favor France over Nigeria).
When we were ready for the labour market, three major industries absorbed a lot of us;
1. Oil & Gas 2. Telecommunications 3. Banking
All 3 depended (on varying degrees) on Government patronage - but all three (oil & gas in particular) are no longer in their high growth phase.
The young ones in their twenties are different. Their best and brightest work in technology. Let me say a few things about technology; 1. Nigeria's venal & corrupt elite don't understand it, thus have little stake in it. 2. This industry doesn't depend that much on govt patronage
As Nigeria's oil & gas future (and the associated patronage networks) look increasingly bleak; bright twenty-something year olds are keyed into an industry that has little to do with government patronage.
(Many are doing online/remote work, and making a killing).
My first consulting job took me to Kano. We were housed in a guest house. The senior manager was Brazilian, the big boss was Nigerian.
The senior manager was automatically housed in the best room, because he's "oyibo". The big boss was livid.
Mensah Otabil described Africa's "colonial legacy" is a deep inferiority complex. It still endures - even among the most educated/exposed segments of our society.
Like the Nigerian oil company guy who insisted "he be treated as an expatriate", not that locals be treated better.
You can't effectively colonize a people without proving, that somehow, you are "superior" to them. I.e. your culture is superior to theirs - and so is your technology.
Asians (Arabs, Chinese, Indians etc.) never fully accepted that Western culture was superior to theirs.
If anyone was a champion of globalization, it was Ronald Reagan. He was also pro-immigration.
He was the darling of American Evangelicals.
Trump is vocally anti-globalization and the most anti-immigration president in decades.
He too is the darling of American Evangelicals.
So what changed? Nothing to do with the Bible, but the evolution of the US economy. People were hard hit by globalization, and US demographics are at tipping point.
This is what is driving a lot of this.
Sometimes, I feel sorry for Nigerian Evangelicals/Pentecostals who have no concept/understanding of the world, or their place in it.
Many of them believe their mission in life is "to live vicariously for America and Israel".