Well I guess we are all going to be holding our breath for few days as we wait to see how much additional spread there is as a result of the holiday.
Here is where we are as of cases reported yesterday. Since last Monday there were an average of 107 new infections reported each day in Cumberland County, down slightly from the previous weeks daily average of 122.
The number of cases per 100,000 people in the last seven days in Cumberland and Pennsylvania. What is happening here Cumberland county mirrors the statewide trend.
Here is a naïve projection of COVID-19 infections assumes the daily rate of increase in the last 7 days in Cumberland County was maintained through the end of March next year.
Just over half the Cumberland County population will be infected by March if the current pace of infection is maintained. This projection is certainly too high because it is unlikely infections continue to increase at the current pace.
To get confirmation of the error in the naïve projection (if not its scale) the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is projecting that infections in Pennsylvania as a whole will peak on December 9th and then begin to decline.
Ok everyone. It happened. I’m mad at what someone said on the internet again. Sorry to interrupt the usual light but doomy scroll. As I work out my anger at the universe.
So Adam Looney. Phd from Harvard. Undergrad at Dartmouth. Oh boy, can you smell trouble. If you can’t you may want to get tested for COVID-19. He served among other places in Obama’s Treasury.
He has an op-ed from a little over a week ago which I’m not going to share again where he argues against the Warren-Schumer proposal to cancel up to $50,000 in student loan debt. That proposal is here warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press…
Ok. Things are bad enough to make me check the COVID-19 case counts in Cumberland in the morning something I haven't done since May.
Here is your naïve projection of COVID-19 cases in Cumberland county assuming the daily rate of increase in infections in the last seven days holds at 2.7% through April.
At the rate of increase in infections in the last seven days the naïve projections implies about HALF of Cumberland County’s population will have been infected by COVID-19 by the end of March.