Well I guess we are all going to be holding our breath for few days as we wait to see how much additional spread there is as a result of the holiday.
Here is where we are as of cases reported yesterday. Since last Monday there were an average of 107 new infections reported each day in Cumberland County, down slightly from the previous weeks daily average of 122. 
The number of cases per 100,000 people in the last seven days in Cumberland and Pennsylvania. What is happening here Cumberland county mirrors the statewide trend.
Here is a naïve projection of COVID-19 infections assumes the daily rate of increase in the last 7 days in Cumberland County was maintained through the end of March next year.
Just over half the Cumberland County population will be infected by March if the current pace of infection is maintained. This projection is certainly too high because it is unlikely infections continue to increase at the current pace.
To get confirmation of the error in the naïve projection (if not its scale) the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is projecting that infections in Pennsylvania as a whole will peak on December 9th and then begin to decline.
Here is the link to the IHME estimates covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
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