Sobering article based on the report by the Office for Budget Responsibility and others.
Deal or no deal the problem is that not all of the effects will be felt by everyone equally.
/1
bbc.com/news/uk-scotla…
Deal or no deal the problem is that not all of the effects will be felt by everyone equally.
/1
bbc.com/news/uk-scotla…
Some, like prices going up or border disruptions, might.
But it is also likely to disproportionately negatively affect some sectors and regions.
/2
But it is also likely to disproportionately negatively affect some sectors and regions.
/2
And here the immediate impact can be very different from the long term one.
The immediate one being the first few months (up to a year) of general confusions and realisation of all the additional costs and the loss of various possibilities.
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The immediate one being the first few months (up to a year) of general confusions and realisation of all the additional costs and the loss of various possibilities.
/3
Worth remembering with the additional simplifications it's not just one change - its several changes between Jan and July.
/4
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And then the slow but permanent shifts in supply chains, perhaps also competitiveness and productivity.
With the new trade deals having to work much harder than they should to offset some of this negative impact.
/5
With the new trade deals having to work much harder than they should to offset some of this negative impact.
/5
At this point almost impossible to predict all of the effects a deal (limited) or a no-deal Brexit will have.
But the first 6 months should give us a good indication of the general direction of travel.
/6
But the first 6 months should give us a good indication of the general direction of travel.
/6
Can you still call it Project Fear if it's actually happening? Guess we'll see.
/end
/end
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