Alex Profile picture
29 Nov, 7 tweets, 2 min read
When there is panic in a bull market, that's a long.

Don't need to wait for "confirmation".
Look into the Three Pushes pattern, very useful for timing entries intraday when combined with watching volume exhaustion prints. When an impulsive move (i.e. a push) is very strong, expect continuation. Generally best not to fade the first push (unless a great scalper).
These are $ETH and $BTC charts for last week's crash.

Identify the three pushes.
Idea is to fade a push against a larger trend. Which push (2nd, 3rd, 4th, all) depends on bias, skill, and how extreme circumstances are (look at volume, funding metrics, liquidations and/or order book depth for that). Best if against a support level, but this is not necessary.
Odds are price will bounce at some point, providing a margin of error in which one can get out at profit or small loss if things still looking terrible.

I generally use the initial bounces to scale out.
If doing this on leverage and/or with tight stops, its particularly important to enter at market or with stop orders on the way up, instead of simply placing limit orders and hoping for the best.
I'm good at this because I've done it more times than I've jerked off.

Practice makes perfect.

Getting REKT multiple times while learning is more than just unavoidable. It's necessary. Think of it as learning to ride a bike or to ski.

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More from @classicmacro

1 Dec
I can say the same thing about Cronje. I have been outspoken in the past about things he did wrong, but I cannot understate how much he has done right.
He's also a natural born pump (and dump) machine.

Can't pump without dump. Image
$SUSHI and $KP3R pumping on the news. Image
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov
This has been my view on gold since November 9 and the Pfizer vaccine news. I'm long - added to my longer term position today. Expect market to soon start trading increased Fed easing to come on December 16, driving the dollar lower. Also longed silver. Same analysis applies. ImageImage
This is a big picture play, with stops 8% lower => outside the noise. More likely to exit if the macro changes and proves me wrong than hitting that stop. I don't expect either, but always possible.
No, not going to advertise moving all my liquid net worth into bitcoin, like some do for engagement. I'm already balls deep into bitcoin & crypto, been so for a long time. I generally handle crypto positions independently from crypto.
Read 4 tweets
28 Nov
I'm a proud short-term $XRP hodler since Thursday.

You can joke about the #xrparmy and still long it.
I did call the crypto bottom for you guys in close to real time.

Expect $XRP to continue trading as a high beta, i.e. a faster horse. Instead of the low beta it has been since 2019. Together with $LTC, ideal for getting exposure to the legacy alts.

Read 5 tweets
27 Nov
Ethereum validators generate revenue by validating transactions. Some transactions pay better than others. Archer DAO incentivizes validators (miners) to partner with onchain analysts & traders (suppliers) to validate more profitable transactions. $ARCH
Archer generates more revenue during times of extreme volatility. Once Archer grows, it would be reasonable to expect its price to exhibit negative correlation during market crashes. If so, $ARCH would become a great portfolio hedge and reduce risk.

Here's a more complete picture of what Archer does 👇

Read 7 tweets
27 Nov
It is hard to solve a problem if can't discuss the problem openly and identify its root.

The issue with racism nowadays is twofold:

#1 racism itself
#2 PC censorship

People who explore how differences among ehtnic groups are sometimes not caused by racism are often censored.
Cognitive differences among social groups are real. Censoring this reality is counterproductive. It ties back to education at early ages. Education in the classroom, and education at home. To level up the field have to address educational differences at early ages.
Rant du jour elicited by today's NYT article on racism at Coinbase.

nytimes.com/2020/11/27/tec…
Read 5 tweets
26 Nov
Local bottom in I think
Never know if a local bottom is "the" bottom until way after the fact. Loaded up to the brim on $ETH 485-495.

Reduce on the way up. If back down, exit. Don't need to know it is "the" bottom to trade.
Think we retrace the last leg. After, don't know.
Read 4 tweets

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